Taking advantage of macro-market cause-effect relationships

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Washington is having problems resolving the debt ceiling issue and because of this western markets are looking less reliable than their Asian counterparts. Because of this and the fact that the Chinese Yuan is attractively priced I expect the USD will sell and the Yuan will rise. Another safe haven for wealth (in comparison to the USD at least) will be in the CHF and this will consequently balloon the value of the EUR to new heights.

After the EUR/USD is cornered and nears or breaks new highs it will take profits, as this price will not be sustained IMO. This will bring cash into gold as the standard safe haven and a rise in gold alongside the Yuan will bring down the EUR as it takes profits from this past bounce. After the Yuan has moved up a bit China will put the lid on it in order to keep their exports priced most attractively, this money will in turn flow into gold as China likely will want to rally its' price in order to see some profits on its' enormous position.

This past year before the AUD contracted due to profit taking it was operating very strongly, I suspect that it will once again become bullish after the EUR begins to fall as the USD rebounds when this debt-ceiling issue is resolved. A rebounding dollar will bring the EUR down sharply, a rallying AUD will have its' trend exacerbated by gold taking intermediate profits.

I expect this trend to play out within the mod-term if it plays out at all.

To simplify I think the Yuan will move up alongside a rise in the EUR and CHF as the USD breaks support and moves downward. Following this move I think that gold will find itself among heavy buying pressure and will begin to move up as the EUR begins to take profits. The Yuan will top off and this in part will spark a USD rebound while golds' momentum up will accelerate. After the USD has made a rebound the AUD will make a major bounce.

This is a macro-market idea that I came up with. I figure boatloads of cash could be made on these moves by those with the means and my philosophy of the most natural course of the market being the most profitable would lead me to believe this scenario I have laid out above will be the most likely course of action for the macro-markets to take.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
The USD broke support as I speculated. Now that it is down it will be held tight and kept from moving up as the EUR poises itself for a corner. Wait for the EUR to pull off its' corner, then the USD may begin to lift off.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
The USD broke support as I speculated. Now that it is down it will be held tight and kept from moving up as the EUR poises itself for a corner. Wait for the EUR to pull off its' corner, then the USD may begin to lift off.
Opened up a short position on the EURCHF I think it will move down when USD turns bullish. IT responded by moving down sharply soon after I hopped on. A good sell signal I presume.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
EUR cornered, USD cracked. Everything so far has gone according to my predictions. EUR should sell heavy up here, be held up to maximize top positions while the USD should be bought heavy and release as soon as loading has completed.

Basically it's time to load up EURUSD short from here and average down as it remains bullish. It should take around 10 days to crack. AUD may pullback meanwhile. It's had a hell of a rebound so far.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Opened up a short position on the EURCHF I think it will move down when USD turns bullish. IT responded by moving down sharply soon after I hopped on. A good sell signal I presume.
CHF made another move down, AUD pulling back EUR loosing steam, USD gaining strength.

Looks like everything might go according to plan.
 

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