Following the money: catching the trends before they realize

[Mr. Crabs]

George Soros made over a billion dollars shorting the GBP

Don't take this badly, but have you worked above VP level in top tier? Which groups of people are these that you're referring to who make money on a whim like this? Quarterly institutional FX profits from trading don't tend to be particularly massive so I'm very interested to know who makes 'hundreds of millions' over and over like this.

People like that are the ones who make the market. Other than that it's just smaller fish getting eaten up by bigger fish.

There's a lot of money to be made in the forex. If you look at the numbers reasonably there's somewhere in a ballpark estimate of $100,000,000,000 in profits being scraped up annually - and that's only currency trading. IF the money is there someone is making it, obviously. I'm not a liberty to tell you exactly who is making that nor would I want to speculate about it for all to see but rest assured there are people /organizations raking in billions per year.

Shall I continue stating the obvious?

 

[Mr. Crabs]

AUDUSD is off to a nice start for this week.

AUDUSD looks like it should be a good pair to buy as well; at least for this week.

Fancy that. The market has grown obedient to me these past 3 quarters.

 

[random12345]

People like that are the ones who make the market. Other than that it's just smaller fish getting eaten up by bigger fish.

There's a lot of money to be made in the forex. If you look at the numbers reasonably there's somewhere in a ballpark estimate of $100,000,000,000 in profits being scraped up annually - and that's only currency trading. IF the money is there someone is making it, obviously. I'm not a liberty to tell you exactly who is making that nor would I want to speculate about it for all to see but rest assured there are people /organizations raking in billions per year.

Shall I continue stating the obvious?

The accounts of the organizations you are referring to are a matter of public record so think again... they do not make 100s of millions a time switching their 'default' currency. You shouldn't make it sound like it's easy for institutions to make money from trading if you haven't worked institutionally. The entire consolidated international trading desks at db made 569 million euros in Q3, of which we can apportion a very very very generous 33% say to fx trading based on db's preference for fx - they are the biggest fx facilitators and traders by a considerable margin. According to you, such money could be made in a few transactions, why do they bother with other derivatives and fixed income?

Further, with your form of logic that big money makes more money, there's no reason why Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund should be struggling of late... 70 billion under control - if only you were in control instead of the greatest Macro man of all time....

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I think you are mistaken.

The accounts of the organizations you are referring to are a matter of public record so think again... they do not make 100s of millions a time switching their 'default' currency. You shouldn't make it sound like it's easy for institutions to make money from trading if you haven't worked institutionally. The entire consolidated international trading desks at db made 569 million euros in Q3, of which we can apportion a very very very generous 33% say to fx trading based on db's preference for fx - they are the biggest fx facilitators and traders by a considerable margin. According to you, such money could be made in a few transactions, why do they bother with other derivatives and fixed income?

Further, with your form of logic that big money makes more money, there's no reason why Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund should be struggling of late... 70 billion under control - if only you were in control instead of the greatest Macro man of all time....

But thanks for the information anyway. It's nice to see the "official" numbers. But you should recognize that some of the largest reserves of capital are not subject to privacy invasion. Also keep in mind inflation has to go somewhere. There's over 100 currencies printing up money in the world, much of that translates into profits via currency trading.

Also it appears you fail to recognize much of the public finance that is heavily scrutinized is just a front. You would be a fool if you think they are actually the ones holding the majority of the capital and making the majority of the profits. People like the guy running Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund are the types of people who are paying off the types of people I mentioned before.

Are you simply representing traditional knowledge or are you actually that ignorant to what is going on behind the scenes?

 

[Mr. Crabs]

AUDCAD made a nice move up

I think there's more where that came from for this next week.

Also keep an eye on the EURUSD it's moving up quietly but I have an idea it will break out early this week. I speculated before it would break out to 1.365, I've revised lower to around 1.362.

I thought the AUDUSD would move up as well and it has churned up nicely since the market opened this week. I think that's another good pair to play on the upside for this week.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

AUDCAD illustrated a lot of buying pressure last night.

I think there's more where that came from for this next week.

Also keep an eye on the EURUSD it's moving up quietly but I have an idea it will break out early this week. I speculated before it would break out to 1.365, I've revised lower to around 1.362.

I thought the AUDUSD would move up as well and it has churned up nicely since the market opened this week. I think that's another good pair to play on the upside for this week.

Interesting move. I think there's more upside yet.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold dipped back under $1,310

It hit bottom just above $1,305. I think that deep pockets with strong hands would be wise to load every lot for sale below $1,320 this week and not allow it to break below $1,300 as to offer a challenge to those trying to break down the price. Next week I think there is a good chance the bulls will stampede back in as the momentum ramps up and we cross back over the 1 day moving average. This will allow for a several week extension in which I think there is a definite possibility the price breaks out past $1,500.

I think there's a lot more money to be made on the upside of gold for this quarter than the downside I presume, this is why I think we're at the bottom accumulating for this next upcoming rebound to rally.

 

[random12345]

But thanks for the information anyway. It's nice to see the "official" numbers. But you should recognize that some of the largest reserves of capital are not subject to privacy invasion. Also keep in mind inflation has to go somewhere. There's over 100 currencies printing up money in the world, much of that translates into profits via currency trading.

Also it appears you fail to recognize much of the public finance that is heavily scrutinized is just a front. You would be a fool if you think they are actually the ones holding the majority of the capital and making the majority of the profits. People like the guy running Bridgewater's Pure Alpha Fund are the types of people who are paying off the types of people I mentioned before.

Are you simply representing traditional knowledge or are you actually that ignorant to what is going on behind the scenes?

Can I start off by saying you're an idiot? T2W doesn't need another conspiracy nut who thinks there are secret little gnomes making gabillions out of sight. (What do they do with this secret money that they can't remit to any country? Build spacecraft no doubt...)

So you're saying Ray Dalio is paying off people bigger than his Hedge Fund, the biggest HF in history and that ever will be...? Bearing in mind his All Weather did make a cheeky 16% on its 50 billion... there are only ten funds bigger than Bridgewater in the world and they are all sovereign ignoring a couple of other govt pension funds, which are essentially commodity backed.

You absolute clown. Where does T2W find these people?!? WHERE?

 

[Purple Brain]

You absolute clown. Where does T2W find these people?!? WHERE?

I was press-ganged coming out of the toilet of the Rose & Crown Streatham Hill. They were both masked, but one called the other one Sharky and the other called the other one Steve.

They've got me and a load of others all chained up in this cell forcing us to write tripe all day, every day.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

It's funny to look at how much people lack common sense

Can I start off by saying you're an idiot? T2W doesn't need another conspiracy nut who thinks there are secret little gnomes making gabillions out of sight. (What do they do with this secret money that they can't remit to any country? Build spacecraft no doubt...)

So you're saying Ray Dalio is paying off people bigger than his Hedge Fund, the biggest HF in history and that ever will be...? Bearing in mind his All Weather did make a cheeky 16% on its 50 billion... there are only ten funds bigger than Bridgewater in the world and they are all sovereign ignoring a couple of other govt pension funds, which are essentially commodity backed.

You absolute clown. Where does T2W find these people?!? WHERE?

The USD prints up billions upon billions every year by itself, imagine how much loose change finds its' way into the currency exchange market each year? Some of that money translates into profits. Don't be foolish. You don't know what London is up to. Do you not realize how much money is being made short-selling the USD? Profit taking shorts are probably one of the main reasons the USD even has bounces. Every time you buy, every time you sell in the forex you are paying the owners of the debt. Even the biggest funds are paying these people. A $70 billion dollar fund has paid other people $70 billion just by playing. Every single dollar is paying someone off, even if you're buying at the absolute bottom or selling at the absolute top. Quit being foolish, you're wasting my time.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Xdddddddddddd

I was press-ganged coming out of the toilet of the Rose & Crown Streatham Hill. They were both masked, but one called the other one Sharky and the other called the other one Steve.

They've got me and a load of others all chained up in this cell forcing us to write tripe all day, every day.

Too funny XDDD

 

[rsh01]

The USD prints up billions upon billions every year by itself, imagine how much loose change finds its' way into the currency exchange market each year?

er, from the Fed ($85bn per mth)....very little. will try & find the link but the banks have just been stockpiling the ctrl+p cash & earning interest via the fed.

thats one of the issues: v little trickle down via loans where it counts most ie in small/medium businesses.

what the BIS do other than short paper gold, i am not so sure. perhaps they are the big players you allude to?

 

[random12345]

The USD prints up billions upon billions every year by itself, imagine how much loose change finds its' way into the currency exchange market each year? Some of that money translates into profits. Don't be foolish. You don't know what London is up to. Do you not realize how much money is being made short-selling the USD? Profit taking shorts are probably one of the main reasons the USD even has bounces. Every time you buy, every time you sell in the forex you are paying the owners of the debt. Even the biggest funds are paying these people. A $70 billion dollar fund has paid other people $70 billion just by playing. Every single dollar is paying someone off, even if you're buying at the absolute bottom or selling at the absolute top. Quit being foolish, you're wasting my time.

How much is being made and by whom? Who in London are you talking about? I worked for MS and UFJ. Not them then?

 

[random12345]

er, from the Fed ($85bn per mth)....very little. will try & find the link but the banks have just been stockpiling the ctrl+p cash & earning interest via the fed.

thats one of the issues: v little trickle down via loans where it counts most ie in small/medium businesses.

what the BIS do other than short paper gold, i am not so sure. perhaps they are the big players you allude to?

Yup, in the same Q3 period as db's intnl trade desks made 569 mi Euros, the group made 3.6 bi Euros from interest income, which banks are now heavily reliant on to replicate their pre 2008 results. It's the smart play anyway since banks became so obsessed with free money fixed income securities while ignoring the obvious risks with repackaging. Now they have free money with zero risk.

 

[ffsear]

Rose & Crown Streatham Hill.

My local pub that! ****hole!

 

[Purple Brain]

My local pub that! ****hole!

Thought I recognised you.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

EUR got smashed a whole dollar

Huge move led about every major up against it that hour.

That's a huge sell signal, but the price being down here will leave everyone scrambling for profits. The fact that this sell signal was so strong will lead those in the money to take advantage of those that are just getting in by taking profits via. their positions and then bringing up the price to get them to cover at a loss.

Just a prediction, but as I said the most profitable direction for the market to take is usually the most likely. Because there's hardly a good reason for it to operate any other way in this day and age.

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Gold capitulated to $1296 and pulled a strong rebound

I think the fact that it didn't move below $1296 is in itself a buy signal. It's churning upwards strongly I am even more confident now that it will turn visibly bullish next week as it crosses over its' 1 day MA. I think that the price is now too strong to contest this new support, I think an average at $1,305 would be hard if not impossible to beat from here on out until the next top.

The way it's operating makes it clear that deep pockets with strong hands are loading up for a significant extension. My target of $1,500 stands and could be exceeded by over $100. I think there is a very high chance gold sees a price over $1,400 before this year ends.

 

[rsh01]

hows your week going so far?

you are long gold / AU & EU at start of week according to your posts, yep?

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Doing just fine

hows your week going so far?

you are long gold / AU & EU at start of week according to your posts, yep?

Equity is up around 10% for the week. But it fluctuates so that may evaporate temporarily at any given moment.

I sold some gold and covered some gold. MY capital is (or was for the most part) hedged. EU crashing this week surprised me. I made a mistake taking my profits too quickly. I graced the top but I didn't expect the pairs I called would respond this drastically to a reversal. Drops were more sharp and frequent than I anticipated. Rebounds were weaker than anticipated. But hey that's what happens when 2 majors send huge signals. Looks like the market is taking my direction fanatically.