Fibonacci-Trader Discussion Board

I would like to thank all the replies on this thread regarding my foolish "adding to a losing position" trade, which closed out at a 125 point loss.

All replies, without exception, were constructive, and helpful, as to how I should cope in a similar situation.

I hope to continue posting my trades, as an ego boost to myself, ( and I cant hide from my mistakes ), and to provide endless amusement to the other more experienced traders.

PS: Muppet doll for sale, with frenzied stab-wounds - buyer collects.
 
The second SHORT, opened at 10,020 has been hit at 10,120,
For a loss of 100.

Not a good week. Bad discipline. Emotion. Impatience.

Will spend weekend defining a quantitiive entry and exit strategy.
 
:( bold to post it on the boards though....

Don't take this the wrong way.... but why were you wanting to sell this short term uptrending market out of interest???

CJ
 
Swing-trading - after about 3 days or so of rises, watch out for a pivot.
Since the main trend is DOWN, I thought the current up-trend would be a short-term retracement, but eventually return to its main downtrend. therefore, looking for a pivot high.

I incorrectly anticipated weakness yesterday.
( actually, I was impatient to trade, and MADE myself see weakness )

I think just following MAs would have been easier !!
But, I am fascinated by swing-trading, and I am determined to master it.

I dont fell so bad about posting - I feel I am well-supported by the people here, and am given lots of good advice.

I am going to have a look at your 3-day high-low and balance-point thingy.

Have a good weekend all.
 
Trendie,

Rather than jump from strategy to strategy - may i suggest that you stick to one, write a review pre and post trade and then do some analysis and reviews (and then update the strategy).

I had a look at the H&L&Balance MA - confused me and my simple brain ..

I'm looking at the dow now - theres was a pivot on the 16th - I would set my fib levels and get ready for a short (probably expecting about 30-40 points for less than 1 wk). If you want I'll post my entry signals later in the weekend..


Thanks
 
Pervaz,

My main strategy is MAs, very simple stuff.

But, I am interested in learning new strategies.
When I post ideas using different rules, I am just comparing something I am new to, Fibs etc, with something I am reasonably familiar with, MAs, swings etc.

I suppose its like comparing the characteristics of a new car with a trusted old banger !!

You are right though, thats why I wrote I will come up with a more structured way of entering and exiting the market.

I will also endeavour to post in the context of the Fibs rules.
( but cant help using simple MAs as a baseline to compare against )
 
Trader333.
I cannot find a fibs calculator,so if you dont mind I can PM you with my E mail address and you can send me a copy of the file.
Waiting for you reply.
Regards.
 
Yes no problem just send me an email address via PM and I will mail it to you. It is in zip format which I hope is OK ?


Paul
 
Trader33 and Pervas.
Thanks for your kind helpTrader33,I was just about to send you my E mail address when I logged on today,but noticed the link that Pervaz posted.I downloaded the link and behold !!,it was the one I had been using on my old windows 98 programme.
Therefore a big thank you to both of you.
 
Hi a320,

I have been wracking my brain about your 3-day high/low, and balance point.

I thought I had read about it before. And Bingo!!

Tom Hougaard uses something along those lines on the ... err......err... can I mention, Tactical Trader ?
 
Yes he does....although I've posted a bit more than Tom tends to.... ;) :) )))))

a320 said:
The three day swing charts...
These are constructed using the highs and lows of the past 4 days. For example if the price moves below the low of the past 3 days the swing is down...moves above the 3 day high the swing is up. Each signal is a relevant appraisal of the medium term direction of the market. If the market makes an outside reversal of the past 2 days range the trend has changed.

Balance point of 3 day range...
The balance point of the 3 day range is the 50% level between the 3 day high/low.
Always Know where the market is in relation to this point..It is a key bench mark we must be aware of it.
In fast moving markets we can use a 2 day range.

Rule 1 Keep a 3 day swing Chart
Rule 2 Know the levels from the 3 day balance points & alternate wave equality.

Kept it simple

Always Know the opening range, Yesterdays Close, Yesterdays High& Low, the 50% balance point... traders will allways play these levels.

Take the" hook trade" for example..If the market is not going in the direction of its pevious 3 day trend, but then manages to cross the "opening level price" back into the 3day trend direction,you would take a "hook trade" .
Only take the trade in the direction of the past 3 day trend with a close stop.

There are many examples of how to play these key levels, if you study the indraday 5min charts for the past 6-12 months on the ES (S&P e-mini futs)

The other balance points of the 3 day swing to keep in mind are the 38.2%, 61.8% and the 1:1 equality prior correction of similar degree.

Always check your Square of 9 price levels...do they match any MOB levels/balance points ect.. to give extra weight.

I may as well highlight the 2 bar swing chart...
A two bar swing chart is an excellent tool for market momentum based on just price.
The swing chart swings up or down when comparing the current bar trading range with the last 2 previous bars.

Momentum is up when the current bar makes a higher high without crossing below the low of the past two bars.( Revese it for momentum down! )
In the case of an outside reversal bar momentum has changed without taking into account of the previous 2nd bar.

CJ
 
Here we go again !!

with 15 minutes to go, yesterdays HIGH of 10199 appears unlikely to be breached.
If today closes below 10199, then yesterday was a PIVOT HIGH.
I will anticipate ( fammous last words ) a SHORT on the DOW NOW at 10185.

Stop loss at 10,250.
 
With my usual lightning fast reflexes......

Firehorse: ( from a few days ago )

"To quote a well known phrase, the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result"

Firehorse; equally, doing something over and over again, could be argued to be a sign of discipline, and not being waylaid by short-term drawdowns.

It is insanity, in hindsight, when, long term, it turns out to be a loss.
It is called discipline, in hindsight, when long-term, if it turms out to be proftiable.

:) ;)
 
Start +8 +13 +21 +34 +55 +89
18 May 26 May 31 May 08 June 21 June 12 July 15 Aug
25 June 03 July 08 July 16 July 29 July 19 Aug 22 Sep
26 July 03 Aug 08 Aug 16 Aug 29 Aug 19 Sep 23 Oct
02 Aug 10 Aug 15 Aug 23 Aug 05 Sep 26 Sep 30 Oct
13 Aug 21 Aug 26 Aug 03 Sep 16 Sep 07 Oct 10 Nov

I have been reading "The New Fibonacci Trader" by Robert Fischer.
The first section, having described Fib-numbers, and PHI, etc, describes "Summation".
This is the idea that from a significant HIGH or LOW, you can add 8,13,21,34,55,89 days to the date to project potential future turning points.
When you a list of a number of projections from a number of HIGHS and LOWs, you see if any of the projected dates overlap - and whallah !!!

As a means of testing this, I am posting the dates and projections of the last few HIGH and LOW points.

The book also describes that you are allowed a leeway of 2 days.

Sep 03/05 are pretty close.
However, Sep 16-19-22 is a bit messy.
Wonder if a HIGH or LOW before then will tilt the edge one way or the other.

Anybody else found anything new vis-a-vis Fibs. ?
 
Most rallies & declines will follow the fib series...based on a six hour trading day.

If you draw a 6h trading day chart ....ie make the first 90min in to 1h, so on the time axis you would have labelled, 11am, 12pm 1pm, 2pm ,3pm & 4pm ( 6h trading day) ...you can reasonably predict the actual hour a pressure point turn will take place....

Say after a low, the market rallies for 5 hours and corrects for three you can expect the rally to continue to the next fib time point which would be 8h, if it goes past then 13h would be the next pressure point , ect...

Other important time counts are based natural squares ( 4, 9, 25, 36, ect..) plus divisions of the popular 360 ( gann solar year) and the natural year of 52 weeks... 52 is an important number and often crops up at important time juncture

For example the friday August the 13th low was 52h ( based on a 6h trading day) from the swing high which occurred monday the 2nd of August .... There's hundreds of examples of intra day turning points if people just take the time to look...maybe if you add some delta you can start to produce some very accurate intra day pressure points.... ;)
 
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