Fibonacci-Trader Discussion Board

[trendie]

The Dow Jones has obviously not read todays script !!
Yesterdays high of 10023 has been breached, meaning the anticipated pivot-high has failed.
But the actions of the last 20 minutes, the spike, is interesting.
There have been 4 consecutive days of rises, so today may be the PIVOT-HIGH.

I am going to go out on a limb, and ADD another position !!
So, SHORT Dow now, at around 10,020.
This has a stop-loss of 10,120.
( I know, adding to a losing position !! But the stop-loss is closer ).

 

[Trader333]

Averaging down (or up in your case) is a quick way to end a trading career in my view. Also to believe that you are right and the market is wrong will also have the same result.


Paul

 

[trendie]

Flippety-flip !!
My Stop-Loss of 10075 ( on the 9950 SHORT ) just got hit.

Thats a loss of 125.
I think this wipes out my previous posts gain.

 

[JJL3142]

Trendie,

Paul is so right - Sometimes its worth staying out of the markets - they will still be there tommorow - remember dont treat the markets as an goose with a golden egg every day otherwise you may get a surprise

I'm waiting for the FTSE to get its act together and go long, and possibly for the DOW to go short

Pervaz

 

[trendie]

Trader333,

Thanks for the admonishment!!
I committed 2 major errors;

1st; adding to a losing position. ( even though I stuck to my stop-loss on the first position )
2nd; the second position was me imposing my view on the market, that it should turn around and go DOWN, when the market was screaming "I AM GOING UP, STUPID".

A subtle error on my second position, is that my stop-loss has no logical TA reasoning,eg, support / resistance, other than "I may lose less if it gets hit".

Also, I was impatient to get back in, but I acknowledged that in my post.

NB: With the force of testerdays move, my second stop-loss of 10,120 may get hit today.

 

[SvenFoster]

trendie I'm pretty new at this too but I hope to make it to be old at this by following advice like Paul and Pervaz.
But this is what I've learnt so far...

1) Preservation of capital is the most important thing.
2) Only add to winning positions.
3) Placing stops is a nightmare but IMHO your best bet and others may agree is to place them outside of support and resistance.
4) Check risk/reward ratio. Doing this and using your stop and your realistic target will probably keep you out of a lot of risky trades anyway. (most use 1:3 but I think it depends on the likleyhood of success, timeframe etc..)

oh and on the wishing the markets did what they are told...(yes i've just read Dr Alex Elder and can't remember word for word but it goes something like...)

The market is like the ocean. If you were on a boat in a storm then wishing it would ease or stop is futile. Your at the mercy of the waves as the ocean has no knowledge of your emotions and the only thing you can control is yourself

but that I think is the tricky part... ...I'm still trying.

keep trading,
Sven

 

[Trader333]

trendie,

My post was not meant to be condescending so please dont take it that way. The fact that you did get hit for a loss is, in my view, the best thing that could have happened to you. The reason I say this is because if you had been right and the market turned round and you made a profit it would have given you negative re-inforcement which would have boosted your confidence that you know better than the market. At some point in the future this would have been disastrous for you.

All the most important lessons I have learned came from losing trades and usually when I thought I knew better than what the market was doing.


Paul

 

[trendie]

Trader,

The problems of trading by yourself, is you dont have anyone to tell you off, when you get it wrong.

It took it as valid criticism.

Thanks for the cyber-clip-round-the-ear.

 

[waverider]

The worst thing that can happen to a beginner.....is that he wins!

 

[Skimbleshanks]

I always found that the best way of trading was NOT to trade by yourself. Trade with a 'little friend'.

Just imagine that you have a complete newbie sitting next to you that you are training to trade, and just talk aloud to your little friend, describing the market, the trend, the timeframes, and just what is happening and why you would be considering an entry, what your risk would be, why would not be a good entry, and when you see the ideal entry where your stop would be, talk through the trade going wrong, etc. It is important to talk aloud to your friend, and not talk it through in your head.

I'm sure you'll find that your trading improves enormously, as you would not want to embarrass yourself in front of your little friend by taking a stupid trade. Just try it and see the difference it makes - you may surprise yourself.

 

[JJL3142]

Skimble - this is called "confessional debugging" - one of my friends uses one of his kids muppet dolls to talk and to review his trades

 

[firehorse]

Hello Trendie

The Dow Jones has obviously not read todays script !!

Deja vu Point already covered back in #84

To quote a well known phrase, the definition of insanity is to keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result

Also a post / thread I find valuable is here regarding territory and map.

( I know, adding to a losing position !!

Been there. Done that. Won't do again

The problems of trading by yourself, is you dont have anyone to tell you off, when you get it wrong.

The markets tells you, that you are wrong

The stop loss tells you that you are wrong

What I've picked up from T2W is that you set the stop loss to tell you that your entry into the market was wrong. That is your risk. That is the cost of your lesson from the market that you was wrong.

Then to take full advantage of the lesson, I go back and analyse in 'detail' to see if I could avoid that mistake in the future. Can I put a rule in my trading strategy to avoid that in the future? Would it have saved me money on previous trades I have have lost money on?

My thinking is why pay money for lessons from the market and not learn from them

And thanks for being brave enough to post your thoughts and trades

"Have a fab day" :cheesy:

 

[waverider]

I've only recently discovered the merits of talking out loud to yourself. It's easy to get despondent if things aren't going to plan, which will always be the case at one time or another. In your mind, especially late at night, you tend only to review the negatives, which saps your confidence and makes you overly cautious in your trading. I'm sure it often causes many to give it up completely.

I decided to start listing out loud to myself what I had actually achieved. This wasn't always about winning, but also about whether I stuck to my plan, whether I adhered to my stops, whether I was brave in entering, or exiting. Whether my setup worked, even though I bailed out through lack of courage. I find that I am actually doing very well, and am progressing. On a monthly basis - always a good idea not to measure yourself on a daily basis - I am winning, albeit modestly....but my trend is currently up.

If I were not saying these things out loud to myself I would not *feel* as bullish about how well I am doing. Just keep an eye out for the men in white coats.

 

[trendie]

Pervaz,

The only problem with having a kids muppet doll, is when it starts to make more money than you do.

 

[firehorse]

The only problem with having a kids muppet doll, is when it starts to make more money than you do.

Actually, if you are making a net loss, then the muppet doll is really making more money than you ...it hasn't lost any !

 

[a320]

3 day swing....is the one I use.....High of the last 3 days & the low of the last 3 days ...50% of the range (ie between the 3 day/3day low) is the balance point... Above the Balance point ..bias is up...Below Balance point ..bias is down....Strong Buy signal if it break's above the 3day high ...Strong sell if it goes below the 3 day low.....

Unless you scalp & use a tight stop & reverse technique, I would only be looking to be taking trades in the direction of the 3 day trend... Until it goes back below its balance point...


CJ

 

[trendie]

Thanks a320.

What confuses me is that from Marc Rivallands perspectice, he looks for 3 days against the trend, and starts looking for a return to the main trend, expecting a pivot high or low.
When the appropriate next day fails to breach the previous days high ( or low ), an anticipated swing has potentially taken place.

This appears to be contradictory to your position, where you are taking a breach of a 3-day high ( or low ), as a potential entry into the trend.

Weird and wonderful stuff this game.

Incidentally, as a predominantly trend-follower, it has been quite a mind-reconfigure to learn swing-trading, as it is almost contrarian in its approach.

 

[Fluke]

Can any one please give me the link to the "Fibonacci Calculator".
I have just bought a new PC with XP home and do not know how to transfer the fib calculator from my old Windows 98 PC.
Thanks a lot.

 

[Trader333]

Fluke,

If you get no joy let me know and I will email you the file.


Paul

 

[Fluke]

Trader 333
Thanks for your offer Paul and I will let you know how I get on,lol.