EUR a sell?

[Mr. Crabs]

can you define the TF here ?

What's a "TF"?

 

[Atilla]

What's a "TF"?

Time Frame

 

[elisab]

In the short period EurUsd is not yet a Sell, but in the long period I am convinced it is. The US trade balance will improve thanks to shale oil and capitals will come back to the US thanks to the industrial policy if Obama that wants to re-industrialize the country.

 

[elisab]

It's interesting how the gold rising up to 1400 does not correspond to the weakness of the Dollar. A divergence to be followed.

 

[elisab]

In case the US interest rates should start to fall due to financial stress, then a flight to quality towards the dollar would be inevitable.

 

[Atilla]

In case the US interest rates should start to fall due to financial stress, then a flight to quality towards the dollar would be inevitable.

Not sure how you reach that conclusion leading to quality in the dollar. Don't you mean the opposite. :-0

My view is further fall in US interest rates will lead to dollar fall.

We are looking to reign back loose monetary policy whilst keeping rates low.

This is the whole crux of the Fed and BoE policy in Carney trying to communicate policy intentions to the market to keep rates/exchange rates low in face of tightening monetary.

Market doesn't believe this is possible and thus future rates rising along with dollar based on QE being reigned in.

 

[rsh01]

In case the US interest rates should start to fall due to financial stress, then a flight to quality towards the dollar would be inevitable.

eh?

int rates (the ones set by the fed) are at the all time lows? in the market they are rising "due to financial stress".

so the ZIRP/TARP/QE to infinity makes the US$ (in other words confidence in its govt) attractive?

wtf?

 

[elisab]

eh?

int rates (the ones set by the fed) are at the all time lows? in the market they are rising "due to financial stress".

so the ZIRP/TARP/QE to infinity makes the US$ (in other words confidence in its govt) attractive?

wtf?

I will try to answer simply & understandably: the chart of the 10 years US yields are quite clear. Each time interest rates have touched the 10 years moving average (now at 4.25%) a financial crisis has occurred. I bet this moment is going to come back soon together with the concern on Tbond. The dollar will regain credibility as soon as the emerging countries will be forced to start extraordinary maneuvers to defend their currencies.

 

[Atilla]

I will try to answer simply & understandably: the chart of the 10 years US yields are quite clear. Each time interest rates have touched the 10 years moving average (now at 4.25%) a financial crisis has occurred. I bet this moment is going to come back soon together with the concern on Tbond. The dollar will regain credibility as soon as the emerging countries will be forced to start extraordinary maneuvers to defend their currencies.

Interest rates rise in boom times and fall in troughs. That's normal behaviour by historical standards. How many crises have we had in the last 10 years?

What do you mean by as soon as emerging countries defend their currencies? You mean they will stop it from falling against the dollar?

You going back to the US blaming other countries for its debt by pegging it against the dollar?


I 'simply' don't understand your explanation at all. Forgive me...

 

[elisab]

Interest rates rise in boom times and fall in troughs. That's normal behaviour by historical standards. How many crises have we had in the last 10 years?

What do you mean by as soon as emerging countries defend their currencies? You mean they will stop it from falling against the dollar?

You going back to the US blaming other countries for its debt by pegging it against the dollar?


I 'simply' don't understand your explanation at all. Forgive me...

What I mean is that the recovery of the American economy has been accompanied by a rise in long term rates, as has always happened in the past. This recovery, however, is close to an end and that’s why I’m expecting a fall in interest rates accompanied by yet another financial crisis.
As for the U.S. dollar, it is still the only credible alternative to the currencies of emerging countries that in the coming months will have quite a few problems ...and the Dollar will thank you.

 

[Atilla]

What I mean is that the recovery of the American economy has been accompanied by a rise in long term rates, as has always happened in the past. This recovery, however, is close to an end and that’s why I’m expecting a fall in interest rates accompanied by yet another financial crisis.
As for the U.S. dollar, it is still the only credible alternative to the currencies of emerging countries that in the coming months will have quite a few problems ...and the Dollar will thank you.

Some level of pull back is highly possible yes. I do think we have an over-extension based on PE ratings and actual earnings. However, I would not subscribe to what you term another financial crises.

I do not see interest rates falling further although rises are a distinct possibility in the near or near-er future than outlined by the FED and BoE.

We'll see how it pans out...

Best regards

 

[Mr. Crabs]

Time Frame

3-6 months

 

[Mr. Crabs]

I will try to answer simply & understandably: the chart of the 10 years US yields are quite clear. Each time interest rates have touched the 10 years moving average (now at 4.25%) a financial crisis has occurred. I bet this moment is going to come back soon together with the concern on Tbond. The dollar will regain credibility as soon as the emerging countries will be forced to start extraordinary maneuvers to defend their currencies.

Very interesting bit, I myself think the market will correct back into the 'loading zone' early next year; after the FED begins tapering.

I wouldn't as much expect a crisis (crisis defined as something near the magnitude of the most recent "recession") as much as a severe and severely predictable bear trap. Increased volatility followed by subsequent bid-smashing and relentless short-selling after big money has completed its' profit taking cycle and focuses its' energy on pulling the price down somewhere worth loading at would be a natural course for the market to take within the next 12 months.

That being said I think big money still needs several months to withdraw from the market without instilling panic (and in effect cutting their profit margins) and I don't expect this period of bearishness will last over a year. But you can expect a stock-market top and following bear trap to inspire much panicking and overreacting from the general trading community which could turn it into a "double dip recession" that people have been fearing, despite the dip nearly exclusively taking place in the stock market being the most likely scenario. I say that because liquidity and capital conditions have improved drastically since the FED took action several years ago.

IMO the effect of a stock market correction would have a net positive effect on the very long-term macro-market considering it will give companies a reason to streamline and consolidate business and capital ventures. Not to mention the impact it could have from the increased money flow to the private sector and bond market when stock market conditions become less favorable. This will in turn increase the amount of capital that will find its' way back into the stock market after the bottom.

 

[elisab]

Very interesting bit, I myself think the market will correct back into the 'loading zone' early next year; after the FED begins tapering.

I wouldn't as much expect a crisis (crisis defined as something near the magnitude of the most recent "recession") as much as a severe and severely predictable bear trap. Increased volatility followed by subsequent bid-smashing and relentless short-selling after big money has completed its' profit taking cycle and focuses its' energy on pulling the price down somewhere worth loading at would be a natural course for the market to take within the next 12 months.

That being said I think big money still needs several months to withdraw from the market without instilling panic (and in effect cutting their profit margins) and I don't expect this period of bearishness will last over a year. But you can expect a stock-market top and following bear trap to inspire much panicking and overreacting from the general trading community which could turn it into a "double dip recession" that people have been fearing, despite the dip nearly exclusively taking place in the stock market being the most likely scenario. I say that because liquidity and capital conditions have improved drastically since the FED took action several years ago.

IMO the effect of a stock market correction would have a net positive effect on the very long-term macro-market considering it will give companies a reason to streamline and consolidate business and capital ventures. Not to mention the impact it could have from the increased money flow to the private sector and bond market when stock market conditions become less favorable. This will in turn increase the amount of capital that will find its' way back into the stock market after the bottom.

I believe that the Fed has been very clever in announcing the end of the QE after realizing that emerging countries had become a ticking time bomb. Now they will do QE, as emerging bonds seem to be out of fashion. As for the recession, I think it will begin by the end of 2013, because of the crisis of the BRICS!!

 

[elisab]

However, the end of August on EurUsd has generated a monthly shooting star candle and this prelude to new downwards on the Euro.

 

[rsh01]

I believe that the Fed has been very clever in announcing the end of the QE after realizing that emerging countries had become a ticking time bomb

elisab
the fed havent announced the end of QE. can you quote your info source?
taper = reduce the rate of increase in fed balance sheet assets - so the BS is still getting bigger.

& they havent confirmed taper yet either.

is the syria war linked to a chance of not having to taper? who knows.

 

[elisab]

elisab
the fed havent announced the end of QE. can you quote your info source?
taper = reduce the rate of increase in fed balance sheet assets - so the BS is still getting bigger.

& they havent confirmed taper yet either.

is the syria war linked to a chance of not having to taper? who knows.

It's strange, I must have misread this article in mid-June where the word "end" appears several times...
Bernanke Sees Beginning of End for Fed

 

[rsh01]

It's strange, I must have misread this article in mid-June where the word "end" appears several times...
Bernanke Sees Beginning of End for Fed

hahahahahahahaha..............

in the main article the word "end" appears twice! & one of them is out of context to your point! you're f mental! count((ctrl + f = "end" / [enter])<=2)=true.....the 2 instances:

1."whose second term as chairman ends"
2. "chairman’s description of the end of quantitative easing indicates"

so yes, you clearly misread the article........this is the end, my only friend, the end.

so by your 'logic'...cos the word 'end' is (but it isnt) prevalent in an article by a journalist who has nothing to do with the fed you can come to a conclusion:

that the fed will definitely follow a certain course of action?

are you f kidding me? is english your first language?

you're worse than atilla.

just pick a word, lets say the word is "end" & then use that word, cos in your mind it was frequently used, as the basis of an assertion which was made up by a journalist & you are willing to regurgitate without any recourse to facts ie the fact that they havent said for definite that QE will END...but to counter that......

.....lets go back to what you said originally:

"Fed has been very clever in announcing the end of the QE"

now lets provide some positive input, some might say balance, into the debate......

how about the words preceding & succeeding the word 'end' eg:

'Sees' Beginning
'indicates'
is 'prepared'
will 'probably' taper
'If' such gains are maintained

are these definites?

yes or no? no?

'no' is what i reckon most normal thinking ppl wld conclude, but theres a whole load of assumptions i am making there.

tbh i dont understand any of your posts & i fear your response will be similarly incoherent, so this reply was sent with mainly hope, & little realism, & to be frank, thats the end of my input in it.

 

[rsh01]

elisab & atilla sitting in a tree, kissing

multi nic?

 

[Atilla]

hahahahahahahaha..............

in the main article the word "end" appears twice! & one of them is out of context to your point! you're f mental! count((ctrl + f = "end" / [enter])<=2)=true.....the 2 instances:

1."whose second term as chairman ends"
2. "chairman’s description of the end of quantitative easing indicates"

so yes, you clearly misread the article........this is the end, my only friend, the end.

so by your 'logic'...cos the word 'end' is (but it isnt) prevalent in an article by a journalist who has nothing to do with the fed you can come to a conclusion:

that the fed will definitely follow a certain course of action?

are you f kidding me? is english your first language?

you're worse than atilla.

just pick a word, lets say the word is "end" & then use that word, cos in your mind it was frequently used, as the basis of an assertion which was made up by a journalist & you are willing to regurgitate without any recourse to facts ie the fact that they havent said for definite that QE will END...but to counter that......

.....lets go back to what you said originally:

"Fed has been very clever in announcing the end of the QE"

now lets provide some positive input, some might say balance, into the debate......

how about the words preceding & succeeding the word 'end' eg:

'Sees' Beginning
'indicates'
is 'prepared'
will 'probably' taper
'If' such gains are maintained

are these definites?

yes or no? no?

'no' is what i reckon most normal thinking ppl wld conclude, but theres a whole load of assumptions i am making there.

tbh i dont understand any of your posts & i fear your response will be similarly incoherent, so this reply was sent with mainly hope, & little realism, & to be frank, thats the end of my input in it.

OMG - You are such a pathetic moron.