EUR a sell?

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
I made a few calls this past year that were proven correct from the JPY crashing (which I called during the crash admittedly) and the AUD taking a dive. But one call that has not materialized was the EUR trending down which I think can be attributed to the JPY capitulation.

Now that the JPY has rebounded (as I predicted WELL in advance right below support) I think it's nigh time the EUR started stepping down for the mod-term and plausibly long-term as well.

Anyone have any thoughts on this?

Also I haven't been on here in a while but I have to mention that the USD has been operating brilliantly. Shout out to helicopter ben.
 
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Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Anyone else seeing resistance on the EUR?

An AUD rebound should affect EUR inversely. I think it's about due to bounce quick before it's downtrend continues. This could be the catalyst to send down the EUR.

Just speculation purely based on the charts.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Also the CHF has become more volatile compared with the EUR which I think is another sign that a strong downtrend is coming up soon for both currencies mod-term.
 

Rambo35

Active member
227 6
I think the EURUSD will head lower over the next few trading weeks, but eventually rally off of good support and close the year above 1.3500.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
I think the EURUSD will head lower over the next few trading weeks, but eventually rally off of good support and close the year above 1.3500.

It looks inflated - but a corner breakout this quarter would be natural and plausible. But if that were to happen I expect the highs to be short lived.

EUR looks about ready to break we'll see where it ends up by the end of this year. I'm expecting it to take, say; a 5-10% hit within these next 12 months.

I would bet against this price holding through the end of the year.
 

robertofx

Active member
139 1
May be a good place to try shorts.

No clear signal yet. But expecting something soon. More chance to 1.34 before going down
 

Rambo35

Active member
227 6
It looks inflated - but a corner breakout this quarter would be natural and plausible. But if that were to happen I expect the highs to be short lived.

EUR looks about ready to break we'll see where it ends up by the end of this year. I'm expecting it to take, say; a 5-10% hit within these next 12 months.

I would bet against this price holding through the end of the year.

That could of course happen as well and all I know for sure is that one of us will get it right.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,580 2,954
It looks inflated - but a corner breakout this quarter would be natural and plausible. But if that were to happen I expect the highs to be short lived.

EUR looks about ready to break we'll see where it ends up by the end of this year. I'm expecting it to take, say; a 5-10% hit within these next 12 months.

I would bet against this price holding through the end of the year.

Hi Mr Crabs,

Here is a view of the relative movements for the basket of currencies you mention.

http://www.forexticket.co.uk

I would agree in the short term re: EURUSD falling 5-7% but from an historical perspective based on assumptions currencies will move back to pre-depression levels ie 2006 then USD has more upside to recover v Euro.

fwiw Based on these relative moves a long on GBPCHF seems a better bet. Alternatively, short on CHFUSD and long on GBPUSD which ever takes your fancy. One consideration that may be worth waiting for is confirmation on QE as the Fed is two timing the market with their signals. But either way as long term bets go I think it is a high probability trade to enter imo.


Also, JPY seems interesting in that BoJ have managed to get value to bounce off pre-depression base line level. Is that per-chance or what the BoJ had/have in mind as target value for JPY???
 

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Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
May be a good place to try shorts.

No clear signal yet. But expecting something soon. More chance to 1.34 before going down

Same thoughts here.
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
Hi Mr Crabs,

Here is a view of the relative movements for the basket of currencies you mention.

Forex - forexticket

I would agree in the short term re: EURUSD falling 5-7% but from an historical perspective based on assumptions currencies will move back to pre-depression levels ie 2006 then USD has more upside to recover v Euro.

fwiw Based on these relative moves a long on GBPCHF seems a better bet. Alternatively, short on CHFUSD and long on GBPUSD which ever takes your fancy. One consideration that may be worth waiting for is confirmation on QE as the Fed is two timing the market with their signals. But either way as long term bets go I think it is a high probability trade to enter imo.


Also, JPY seems interesting in that BoJ have managed to get value to bounce off pre-depression base line level. Is that per-chance or what the BoJ had/have in mind as target value for JPY???

GBPCHF looks like the best bet ATM IMO, good pairing.

Also on the topic of the JPY it looks like the central bank pulled off a stunt with the JPY, I think it's already bottomed out. IT looks strong and the bottom looks concrete, I think it should be bullish for the mod-term.

So EURJPY could be a good bet too, I think the dollar is going to be bullish for the long-term with the FED considering tapering, bonds could be bullish with the stock market taking profits and cooling off from a historic run that would attribute to USD bullishness as well.
 

Giovan

Active member
163 7
GBPCHF looks like the best bet ATM IMO, good pairing.

Also on the topic of the JPY it looks like the central bank pulled off a stunt with the JPY, I think it's already bottomed out. IT looks strong and the bottom looks concrete, I think it should be bullish for the mod-term.

So EURJPY could be a good bet too, I think the dollar is going to be bullish for the long-term with the FED considering tapering, bonds could be bullish with the stock market taking profits and cooling off from a historic run that would attribute to USD bullishness as well.

My money is on the USD/JPY bullish run. Quite a solid bottom and its already breaking up
 

A.Hardy

Junior member
14 0
iv been shot selling the EUR/USD the last couple of days and its worked out pretty well 8/10 potions been a profit
 

Mr. Crabs

Established member
598 3
iv been shot selling the EUR/USD the last couple of days and its worked out pretty well 8/10 potions been a profit

(y)

EUR is still in beast mode though so it can still pull off huge corners.

I expect it to take a breather some time this year but it's still looking strong.

As usual I called the reversal so far in advance that it is practically irrelevant. But then again it could crack at the drop of a hat so I'd keep trying short until in case of a big move. I figure another Eurosystem 'catastrophe' is right around the corner.

Also the USD is looking pretty unstoppable.
 
 
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