Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

Let's look at a daily channel.........It's sloppy to the downside and also to the upside.........You don't have to be a perfect Elliott wave analyst to understand what this means..........Sloppy and choppy equals corrective waves...........I am trying to simplify things here.........Strong and no overlap is an impulse wave,,,,This is really simple...............

 

[JahDave]

There is no doubt that the Euro is going down in the long term...I am posting a weekly chart here............The situation is to use the various time frames to get in at the right time...........
I am long Euro at the present time, but at the right time I will short the He** out of this and any other pair that will bring a good profit..............My point here is that if you want to make profits in trading currency, then you should become a currency whore and trade whatever brings a profit...............

 

[JahDave]

Let's look at a daily channel.........It's sloppy to the downside and also to the upside.........You don't have to be a perfect Elliott wave analyst to understand what this means..........Sloppy and choppy equals corrective waves...........I am trying to simplify things here.........Strong and no overlap is an impulse wave,,,,This is really simple...............

Sloppy and choppy to the downside and impulsive to the upside on the previous move.......This equals an impulse to the upside at some point...........

 

[JahDave]

There is no doubt that the Euro is going down in the long term...I am posting a weekly chart here............The situation is to use the various time frames to get in at the right time...........
I am long Euro at the present time, but at the right time I will short the He** out of this and any other pair that will bring a good profit..............My point here is that if you want to make profits in trading currency, then you should become a currency whore and trade whatever brings a profit...............

My point here is that we should all make pips.................I just took my profit on the long Euro and Now I have shorted it..............This is not the big short, but Just for a little while here...............We should all do the next right thing here to make some positive pips...............90% of trading is for the small gain and 10% should be for the home runs...............

 

[JahDave]

I know I posted a EUR_USD 1 hour chart several hours ago but I am posting a new one showing the TRIX with a nice head and shoulders below the candles................If you have followed my thread for much time then you will know that i place a lot of value on technical indicators...........

 

[JahDave]

This move is still corrective, but this pair should go down from here........................

 

[JahDave]

It is all depends on what time frame you want to trade................A good 5 minute trade may be a bad 1 hour trade and a good 1 hour trade may be a bad daily trade.................You must understand the fractal nature of the markets to be a great trader..................

 

[JahDave]

I think I have effectually taken my thread back over.................And I hope I have helped someone else become a better trader...............Good Night...............See you all tomorrow.............

 

[JahDave]

Here is an Aussie daily chart. There is a buy signal on the TRIX under the chart, but what is important is that this move down is a Zig-Zag Elliott Wave pattern. The first move down is impulsive the second move up is not and the third move down is impulsive. Now why can't this be a third wave down in a five wave impulse?. I drew a straight green line to help visualize this. The last move up has encroached into the first wave down and in an impulse wave then wave 4 cannot go into wave 1 territory. Therefore this must be a zig-zag and not an impulse wave, so the odds are good that this pair is going above the 1.1000. At the least it should make a sizeable move up from here before making a new low. I already went long at the markets close today after seeing the spinning top on the daily candle with a stop at .9700.

 

[aby15]

in my humble opinion it really doesnt matter that a move is motive or corrective because it could be different personality and direction in a different time frame.
What really matters is the entry because even in a corrcetive zig-zag you will have a C-wave that moves like a 3rd wave i.e.e strong and fast and it MIGHT get to 100% - 123.8% and 161.8% and even 200% so its just the exits that might be different.
plus i have seen many clean 5-wave moves ending up into nothing (C-wave); and many 3-wave moves moving further in the opposite direction.
I agree that you have a zig-zag down in the AUD, but i disgree that means you WILL have a high above 1.10 in the practical future. This could be a larger frame A-wave followed by a B-wave (which may have already completed) and then we have a larger C-wave down - all without going anywhere near 1.10. No?

 

[JahDave]

I have a very thorough understanding of Elliott Wave myself, but I am trying to simplify things here to be beneficial to people reading this thread. Your complex response is the reason most people shun Elliott Wave Theory. So many people get caught up in labeling every little squiggle in a chart move. It doesn't have to be that complicated to be beneficial. Steep moves are almost always impulsive and sideways moves are almost always corrective. Here is an example for today. I am posting the AUD-USD 1 hour chart. If it goes up above the .9600 area then I will say that this move is impulsive and I will expect a pullback in three waves and at least one more move up in 5 waves................This is not that complicated.............Anyway Aby,,,,,,,,,Thanks for the feedback and here is tonight's chart..............

 

[JahDave]

Here is the AUD_USD daily chart as well. This is showing no guarantee that the AUD is going up above 1.10, but there are some pretty good clues in this chart. The most obvious chart interpretation is that this is an expanded flat and it will go much higher. The second count is that this move down will be in 9 waves down, which is an extended impulse wave. Either way if it goes below .9385 then this wave will probably be an extension down, but if it goes above the .9600, then it probably will go up for a while...............

 

[JahDave]

Here is the AUD_USD daily chart as well. This is showing no guarantee that the AUD is going up above 1.10, but there are some pretty good clues in this chart. The most obvious chart interpretation is that this is an expanded flat and it will go much higher. The second count is that this move down will be in 9 waves down, which is an extended impulse wave. Either way if it goes below .9385 then this wave will probably be an extension down, but if it goes above the .9600, then it probably will go up for a while...............

Here is the Aussie hourly chart at the moment...10/06/2011/9:00 pm EST. This has been a nice run up but it looks like it is almost ready to pull back some. I am staying long because even if this is an ABC corrective wave then it will pull back and then make at least one more run to a new high......If I did not get in on the first leg up, then I would wait for a 3 wave pullback and then get in long because the move up after that pull back should be stronger than the first move up.....Attached is the chart...

Good Trading,
JahDave

 

[JahDave]

Here is the Kiwi Daily chart................The RSI is showing a strong move up, but the TRIX is not showing an up signal yet.........I bought the Kiwi yesterday and am planning to hold it long for a a week or so.........If the TRIX turns up in the next 2 days then this should be a good move up...............

 

[JahDave]

Here is the Kiwi Daily chart................The RSI is showing a strong move up, but the TRIX is not showing an up signal yet.........I bought the Kiwi yesterday and am planning to hold it long for a a week or so.........If the TRIX turns up in the next 2 days then this should be a good move up...............

If this moves above above the .7964 then it will go much higher...............

 

[JahDave]

Here is a longer term hour chart of the Aussie...............The Aussie is in an ending diagonal.................This means that it will make a nominal high and then it will make a new low......................After that it will make a new high..................

 

[JahDave]

Here is the chart.................

 

[JahDave]

Here is the chart.................

Probably the low will be about .9625.................Then I will be buying this pair again for the short term.............

 

[JahDave]

Here is the Aussie hourly chart at the moment...10/06/2011/9:00 pm EST. This has been a nice run up but it looks like it is almost ready to pull back some. I am staying long because even if this is an ABC corrective wave then it will pull back and then make at least one more run to a new high......If I did not get in on the first leg up, then I would wait for a 3 wave pullback and then get in long because the move up after that pull back should be stronger than the first move up.....Attached is the chart...

Good Trading,
JahDave

I cashed out some profit Friday and went short on this pair because of the shooting star right here on the day chart and because this looks like a 3 wave move down...... I know in the previous post I said that I would wait this one out, but I cashed out half when I wrote that post and then things looked good for for a deeper retracement, so I flopped the other half............I think it will hit the .9650..........That is where my take profit is and then at the .9640 I have a buy................... This pair looks to be going much higher after another leg down....but the confirmation is to the downside for now..........We have made a newer low and a lower high........... Good Trading Everyone............

 

[Dogged]

JahDave, I love to hear someone is profitable in the long run. Thanks for this great thread and for consistently posting. Nice gift to other traders. If you get a minute...

1. What resources should I read to understand this better? I'm not afraid of reading entire books.

2. The difficulty with EWT is that everyone has a different opinion as to what is a wave top and bottom. How have you been able to recognize them consistently? I suppose you'll answer "Experience"

3. I have read Joe Dinapoli's book and a lot of his theory involves waiting to see what the maket will do, wait for a set up and place a rational trade. It won't work in an indecisive market. You need thrust and retracement, not indecision. Does your method work that way too?

4. It looks like you're trying to pick tops and bottoms. When do you enter and exit? I mean what is the set up you're looking for before you feel conficent enough to trade?