Elliott Wave EUR/USD

[JahDave]

I am starting this thread because I have been studying Elliott Wave theory for almost two years now and I would like to know if anyone else here is using it, and if so I would like some input. Also, for new traders I hope this thread will help you make some profitable trades even if you can't contribute right now. My first post will be a long term chart that is labeled and I will also post a shorter term chart that is labeled. One of the things I like most about Elliott Wave is that it is based on a fractal scale, so it is happening on all time frame charts. So here is what I think is happening long term and shorter term.

 

[JahDave]

OK, Here are my 2 screen shots of the eur

 

[JahDave]

Here is the shorter term

 

[JahDave]

When wave 2 finishes on the long term chart is finished, wave three down should be a large move down.

 

[JahDave]

here is my best guess for today. The eur is going to make an expanded flat and I am attaching a current screen shot of the chart. The situation with corrective waves is that there are more patterns than in impulse waves, so there fore they are harder to predict until they unfold somewhat and then you can start to narrow down what might be happening based on elliottwave rules. Right now the eur has two possible wave counts that might be happening. I will not go into it unless someone is interested.

 

[yellowlion]

Hey Dave,

Sorry for the outsized images, they are from the group analysis for this morning.

How about this?

Weekly Dollar Index possible reversal pattern at monthly resistance into today's close.

EURUSD 15min inverse Head and Shoulders all around.

​

If the patterns hold into the close, I'll let you decide on direction next week.

Left you a PM...


All The Best,
YL

 

[JahDave]

more.

 

[JahDave]

I'm posting a current chart and with my notes on it. That's the thing about corrective waves. They take more patience to trade because there are more possible patterns than impulse waves. I carried my short through the weekend for a nice profit, but have closed that position and am sitting out until this chart unfolds some more.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my update for January 5, 2010. I am currently long Euro looking for a five wave up move to finish the C wave of the corrective action. My buy in, stop, and limit is on this screen shot I am attaching. I think I am right for now. My rule is to protect the profits after they pass 50 pips, and let's all get paid in 2010.

 

[JahDave]

And by the way, wave C is always comprised of 5 waves.

 

[JahDave]

OK,
Sorry I've been gone a while. I will try to make at least 2 or 3 posts a week. Right now I'm looking for a high in the Euro of between 1.3630 and 1.3650 to complete a wave 4 on the five minute chart. Then it will push down in 5 waves to make wave 5. After that it should make a wave 2 on the next larger scale back up into the same range, and after that it will begin wave 3 of a larger wave 3, so this should be a nice move down for at least several hundred pips.

I'll check back in tomorrow.

Dave

 

[JahDave]

I quit posting in February because I realized I wasn't posting effective charts. To sum things up I thought I had Elliott Wave Theory figured out to the point I could consistently give good advice, but that wasn't the case. I have been working really hard since then and hopefully improved a lot and can get more Elliotticians to contribute to this thread. I really believe that if multiple people contribute then we can help each other be more successful. Here is my preferred count on the Euro daily chart

 

[JahDave]

I quit posting in February because I realized I wasn't posting effective charts. To sum things up I thought I had Elliott Wave Theory figured out to the point I could consistently give good advice, but that wasn't the case. I have been working really hard since then and hopefully improved a lot and can get more Elliotticians to contribute to this thread. I really believe that if multiple people contribute then we can help each other be more successful. Here is my preferred count on the Euro daily chart

P.S. In my defense Look at the time frame from February through March. That is a very choppy unclear time period and even the pros were missing forecasts consistently. But I know now that is a time period to sit back and wait for things to clear up some, even if it takes a while.

 

[JahDave]

BTW, one more thing. I realize there is no "holy grail" of trading, and I use lots of other Technical indicators and fundamentals as well. I believe from my trading experience that there is no substitute for experience, but I have several trading friends I talk to daily and just running ideas and observations by each other helps us all.

 

[JahDave]

BTW, one more thing. I realize there is no "holy grail" of trading, and I use lots of other Technical indicators and fundamentals as well. I believe from my trading experience that there is no substitute for experience, but I have several trading friends I talk to daily and just running ideas and observations by each other helps us all.

Here are my charts of the eur for today. I am posting a day chart and a medium and long term hour chart. It appears to me that we may be in the D wave of the triangle. I thought the C wave my be complex and more drawn out, but now I'm not so sure. Anyway, we have completed or are close to completing 5 waves down on the hourly chart which means the market should pull back up in a 3 wave formation. After that pullback will be another five waves down to complete a zigzag. I have bought the euro at 1.3439 with sl @ 1.3275 and a tp @ 1.36. My normal trading style is to lock in some profit by moving my stop loss up if the trade gets profitable.

 

[JahDave]

I had a wrong count and got stopped out. I guess the lesson here is to be more patient and wait for the high probability trades. Here is my current Euro chart with two wave counts. If anyone sees another count then please post it. One count is an ending diagonal and the other count is an impulse and it is labeled in parenthesis. I'm waiting at the moment for a high probability point to enter.

 

[JahDave]

On the 1 hour chart I am posting there is a nice five wave move down. Both wave counts are still valid and I have applied fibo retracements to the down move. The chart shows that the euro is encountering some resistance at the 38.2% level now. If the Euro breaks down below the 1.32 level then I will rule out the ending diagonal pattern and go with the impulse. I think the highest probability trade is to wait for it to get higher and then sell.

 

[JahDave]

Here is my day chart today. I have an if done order to sell at 1.35, with a stop at 1.36, and a take profit at 1.3150

 

[JahDave]

I don't think the euro will reach the 61.8% retracement level. Based on the hour chart I am posting, I think the odds have moved to the 50% retracement level as presented on my hour chart, so I have moved my sell level to 1.3445. Here is my plan for my limit order. I still have it at 1.3150, but if the down move looks impulsive instead of corrective I will move it down, but if it looks like a corrective move down then I will leave it where it is.

 

[JahDave]

Just a quick update. I just bought euro at 132.39 looking for a high in the 134-135 range. I'll post up a chart tonight, but I think this is a short term bottom and it is beginning the final move up before a substantial move down