Dear Jeff Smith
May be my research on Elliot Wave Numbe will be helpful you. If u really gained something do write back to me, Then i will also discuss on Elliot Wave Trend. Enjoy'
ELLIOT WAVE NOS
It is a sequence of Fibonacci numbers which in turn are a series of numbers in which the next number in the sequence is obtained by taking a certain number in the sequence and adding to it its predecessor.
In Fibonacci Sequence the sum of any two adjacent numbers in the sequence forms the next higher number in the sequence, viz., 1 plus 1 equals 2, 1 plus 2 equals 3, 2 plus 3 equals 5, 3 plus 5 equals 8, and so on to infinity.
The Golden Ratio
...Phi is the only number that when added to 1 yields its inverse: -
i.e. 13/21 = 0.6190… + 1 = 1.6190….
taking its inverse = 0.618…..(approx.)
Now 0.618… + 1 = 1.618………..
Taking its inverse = 0.618…………
.......and so on.
excellent.......how about some square roots in there?.......afterall, those numbers are just as valid or invalid as the employment may be.......suits you sir......and remember, Pisano did not write and uncover for Ralph Nelson or vice versa......so, Fibonacci are not Elliott numbers.....who knows, one became a tea totaller and the other (...I'm not totally offay with Leonardo Pisanos private life).......needless to say you're attempting to trade in a box, with mixing Fibs with Elliott and the market is not in a box......dilligence in research aside, the more you engage the theory of what price is doing the more you also engage "other" knowledge when you are in the trade......while the trigger to trade might come from a sense of being assured by a theory (that is, you use the theory as permission to transact and dislocate yourself from the emotional onus req'd) you are still required to maintain, on an active basis, naked, live, in the here and now, on what is actually unfolding to your capital and you are deciding what is unfolding into the future from other sources aside from the theory of Elliott and the numbers of Fibonacci (whether you combine them or not).....my point is that the theory is laden with linear structures and when you add a numeric structure you enhance the linear rigidity (not to be confused with robust fractals et al)
......as all degrees of trend are active at all times you are in a balanced position from a theoretical perspective and that means you start at zero each transaction versus what most elliotticians tell you about forecasting......you can prove this by doing live calls.....go ahead, do a live call with elliott in forward time not historical time......whilest there is validity in third wave strengths versus other waves several things happen for the trader; the trader takes their cues that serve to give confidence to the proposition of the moment (which is hindsight forecasting) and the point I am making here is that the trader is using the unfolding price action to verify the theory.....a little like going around the bend of a road and THEN deciding to steer the car and a crash is what usually occurs unless you are on tracks and using Elliott with Fibs (including time ratios) is an attempt to place dynamic price onto tracks.......
the only numbers that have been translated from RN Elliotts work are in the structure of the wave principal for wave progression and regression and not a time series or exponentiality of growth (which, even for Fibonacci is a linear structure)
.....placement of transactions based on a wave, where all degrees are active at the same, calls for you to engage a strict discipline and most traders never keep that discipline for the exact same reasons I stated earlier, that, you are taking on "other" data and information that are part of the driving force of price trend.....invariably leading to basic guess work on where you are in the wave structure.....afterall, until the price is historic, how do you know.....that calls for stops and how wide you place them.....then you are forecasting stops on a wave structure that is unknown, unseen......yes, there are times of confirmation where the evidence shows that a wave structure is unfolding and the surrounding data gives that view support, however, the time taken is the time lost. This is the biggest contention, about time, not the drawdowns. You see, trading out of a box locks you into a theorem (side step one) and then forces you into a discipline (side step two) forces you to forecast stop postions (side step three) forces you to look away from the ambition of traders in driving price. You the more engage the more you force yourself to sidestep and be distracted from actuallity.
Elliotts work is based on natures law, sure. The whole idea is that subconcious and endogenous movement (expansion and contraction) maybe foracast. That is not the same as viewing history and plotting the past event of growth and regression. No matter how well you take on the lexicon of a theorem it is a vast stretch from what is going on in the market place, at any time, in the here-and-now of price movment.
Illumination.......
You must be aware of this vital point, that, for the wave principal to actually be true, then, YOU are part of that structure, as your actions and your endogenous impulses are part of natures law. Thus, you fight a two-frontal attack.
.......A lot of time is spent doing that.
.......You can replace the drawdowns, not the time.
Enough software is around to give you comfort and even then, the trader is disposed to the same indulgences and actions that all traders face because they play their own part in the wave. To stand outside of the throng you require a view that is not subjective or objective. The difference between forcasting price flow and trading price flow is the difference you understand when you prove truth.
This response is an offering to benefit the reader.
...........ask any Elliottician to trade with live calls and you'll discover pure supplementary qualities within Elliotts work, suppliments you discard and that your need to take on dominating evidence, that overrides the theorem, is what, after all arguments and debates, defines it's value.
Acceptance of being part of price flow is different to being objective toward price flow. Within that last thought lays freedom........read it twice.....
Julian
