The True about Elliott Waves "really works?"

forexbear

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The True about Elliott Waves "really works?"

A lot of people talk about this thing called Elliott Waves, and a diversification of answer was collected after made this question: elliott waves really works?. Some people said that is a lack of time apply elliott waves to the market, and by the other side, said that is a great forecasting tool. Some people think that elliott waves are magic, and the use of this on the market dont give place to the mistake, and this is the wrong way to think about elliott waves. All forecasting tools have a percentage of mistake, like oscilators. If we buy and sell everytime that the oscilator give us a signal, we will loose money, but if we filter this signal, we can get some profits, and the same with other tools, like bollinger, MACD, trend lines, retracements, gann lines, and more. Learn to use elliot waves require a lot of time and an open mind, because it is a probability tool, not the holy grial. The fractal propouse by Elliott is the 5 waves up and 3 down, but is impossible find all the time and at diferents times frames this structure, because of that, the best is use an hourly chart as the lowest time frame, and try to dont get mess looking for this 5 and 3, watch the global move, one low followed by a recovery can be labeled as A or 1, but we can only labelel this wave when the movement is finished. Other key of the elliott waves, is that all trends in the market have at least 3 waves, if we wait one wave and the recovery to the fib area, we can get in for this wave 3 and make safe money. And the elliott waves can be filter with the use of oscilators like MACD, stochastics and RSI. Learn more about elliott waves, as an alternative tool, not as a magic key that will become you millonaire.
What is your thinking?
 
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forexbear said:
The True about Elliott Waves "really works?"

... it is a probability tool

I doubt it. It is not quantifiable as evidenced by the agonising over wave counts. Buzzwords are easy to come by, but the abuse of terminology that has a precise meaning is always a sign that something is amiss.
 
Dear All,

After losing money with general TA I started using Elliott Wave and the losing stopped.... but let us make no mistake about anything here it is hard work and difficult to understand. Than I got ahold of some Gann documents and started to use those as well. A renewed introduction on TA indicators by an analyst got my attention... whow that was something using indicators in a way that they were not lagging anymore but predicting !!!!!!!....

It is a mix of tools that help me make consistant profits. Not just the one thing. And understanding what you use is critical, there are quite a few fi Elliott analysts and they conclude differently... make sure you understand completely where the analyst is coming from with his conclusion. One last thing when journalists say they quote Bob Prechter and foresee a DJIA of 440 bare in mind that this quote needs the timeframe and analyst background... the year this wave unfolds is 2040???!!!! In the mean time we will make some money.

Using a technique to analyse/trade is something personal use the things that work for you forget about the things that don't work for you, read a lot and again it's hard work that gets you somewhere.


Happy Trading.
 
newtrader22 said:
If elliott do not work, then which tool of TA works? which tool do not have conradictions ?

newrader22
Elliot Waves and Fibonnaci are based on the assumption that there are natural rhythms at play within the markets that can be detected. These are supposedly found in all aspects of the natural and manmade worlds and give rise to the fractal structures that you see, for example, in the leafs of plants. The number series that lie behind these concepts have been employed over the centuries in architecture to provide grace and beauty i.e. harmony to buildings.

It would appear that forexbear, on both this site and Oanda, was trying to point people to a particular commercial website, which is not an unusual thing to see in what I call "one-posters".

The problem with the markets is that they are manipulated. You see what you are supposed to see and this is why tools and, I think by this you mean indicators, are contradictory.

Only the study of price and volume (and level 2 where it is available) works consistently

Charlton
 
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