Hook Shot said:
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=EUJYY&o=&a=V:60&z=650x450&d=MEDIUM&b=bar&st=
Lovely pennant formation in Jan
Maybe Europeans get their way at G7.........
Paulson seems nervous of weaking Yen.....
Okay........ change of tack.
I'm known for perhaps posting random opportunities and thankfully some are fruitful.. but so what ?
I posted this particular fx pair for a "particular" reason. That reason was I heard that Europeans and to lesser extent US were not happy with the decline in the YEN... harming their exporters and benefiting Japanese exporters etc....
Comments were made by J.C. Trichet (European Central Bank Chief) and Hank Paulson (US Treasury Sec.) that they were
concerned about the weakness in the YEN.
Concern is one thing but what would or could they do about it ?
Well there is a G7 meeting this weekend where they have the power to alter the dynamics of forex markets - even if only for a period. In short they could do or say things which could force the markets to increase the value of the YEN (or at least deter institutions from selling it so heavily...even if only temporarily).
So we have YEN weakening against the Euro..... i.e Euro/Yen goes UP. With the comments of the last week by US/EU finance heads regarding the weakness of the YEN and thus the rise of Euro/Yen snd $/Yen cross rates ..... we should expect to see the rise in the crosses tempered.... and perhaps temporarily reversed!
We don't know what the G7 communique will say about the YEN or any currency in particular come Sunday or Monday next week... We don't even know whether they really give a **** !
After all the Yen carry trade (borrowing @ cheap Japanese interest rates and investing funds for better returns ) is making savvy people buckets of money.
The point is with Yen so weak (Euro/Yen... $/Yen so high) ... this
looming event introduces additional uncertainty into the picture). Consequently, I thought it would be hard for players to continue to sell the Yen against Euro or $ with their usual relish - purely because of the G7 meeting...... the safest and perhaps more prudent course of action would be to pause selling Yen or buy back YEN to cover.....or even buy YEN outright!
This would inevitably give the YEN a boost and Euro/Yen and $/Yen should fall ..... so my theory is that for this week at least $/Y and Euro/Yen should find it hard to climb and hold gains ...
So with the pennant forming in the key Euro/Yen cross... it was a good bet IMO that the break ot of the pennant would be down.... although I could not be
absolutely certain :cheesy:
Monday 12th onwards is something else....
Most forex participants know all this already but hopefully it might prove useful to those new to forex ....... if not to financial markets in general!
HS