Dow Intraday charts 29/09 03/10

bgold

Established member
532 5
Hi Chartman.
I studied your thread this morning. Very educational, both your and China's observations. Am I correct that I just saw an RSI switch in ES. CCI going back tru 0. Market back towards new weekly highs?

Please do share with youir wisdoms?
thanks
J
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Correct, Toad. But I see a possible ND bump top on dow... RSI just peaking at 70 and ES vol not supporting another move up right now....
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
PS that ND is across yesterday's close, so I'm not attaching total comitment to it, especially as we gapped down.CCI on dow looks like it's making RS Switch too.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Price moved up with the channel line a tad today, and has now formed a triangle.... Thing is, RSI is in divergence. Insufficient data to say which way it will go,especially as the price is sitting slap bang mid channel.Upside break target around 9575. Downside 9400, which sits spot on channel support. 9575 is the best fit to channel boundaries.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
From comments earlier, the RS Switch on CCI didn't happen.... The possible ND across yesterday's close looks like it did deliver a top. Ignoring that, there was a clear double top at 9500, where you would expect a test and drop if it wasn't going to go through. Both confirming the other, if you like. And the rest? Looks very nervous, doesn't it.... A long off the PD bottom gave two out possibilities- the third test of 9500, ( and a sort of ND, but you don't get a middle dip, so discounted!) or the 3rd peak ND at 9510. Ask yourself this.... Was the sweat of the drop from 9500 to 9480 worth the extra 10 points to catch the real 3rd peak? I don't think so. Taking the 9500 was the prudent move. Greed is the undoing of a lot of traders, where having seen a nice profit missed, they hang in there in the belief ( sorry, HOPE) that the price will come back and they will be rewarded for their patience. Dream on.
 

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mombasa

Established member
561 1
CM, was that a triangle between 15.50 & 16.25 - I saw it as one and traded it on the break. My only other entry was a short from the double top with exit after it crossed the 100MA.

Figured that after a big move the day before it was going to be choppy as usualy seems to be the case.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Yes, with a 20 point target that got met, but didn't follow through. You're right about big moves being followed by choppy ones.
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
Whow, it is going to be interesting! Do you ever look at the YM contract during the pre-trading hours?
Keen to hear your views for today?
thanks
 

oatman

Senior member
2,879 22
Is it my imagination or are YM/Dow slow to react to figures coming out? I sold 88 on YM and it came back to 75.
In Ftse future the reaction seems almost instant on the release of figures, ie you don't get a look in.
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
I had similar experience with IB. But also miss es data between 10am and 13:00 in eSignal. Something wasn't working.

Anyway waht is market up to? Is thi s pause before next leg up or early signs of exhaustion?
 

oatman

Senior member
2,879 22
I've got no basis for this whatsoever, except that I like being bearish, and everybody's suddenly very bullish, but I'm getting a nasty feeling that it's going to fall outa bed later

good luck
 

bgold

Established member
532 5
reversal?

Is this the/a reversal. Higher high but no confirmation in RSI and weakening in CCI?
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Toad, I look at S&P futures pre market- same thing really.
I hate these huge spike ups on news- screws TA well n good.... Oh well. I said last night 9575 looked the best fit. Luck or skill? Has to be luck, I'm afraid. The channel has now moved up a slice, by about 50 points.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Had a nice live chat with Fazalv this afternoon. He was in a quandry about hold or close.... having gone long at 9591. I picked it up around 5pm when it was trying to break 32... here, the sensible play was to hold and see what happened, with a solid out at 20, the horizontal support. It looked as if the triangle break was going to fail but just held onto 20 before running off. There were two triangle targets, 40 and 50... As the price went through 32, the stop was moved up to 32 from 20. The price then went up to 43 ( 1st target) with a pullback to 35 and then off again. As it went through 45, the stop was moved up to 45. At this point I suggested that 64 was on the cards for the next target as the price went through 50.... From there we got our customary 3 pk ND top, with an out at 65. I hope you closed then Faz.:)
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Great example of how the magic no's 32 and 64 came into good effect today, providing decisions on holding , closing, and going short.
 

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