Dow Intraday charts 29/09 03/10

[ChartMan]

Uncertain start to the week. From my comp. entry you will see that I think we go up, for what it's worth. So whilst you should never follow anyones guesses, it may help to see future possibilities. In that respect, I'm looking for signs of an up channel forming. That doesn't mean I won't be looking for signs of a down turn. Either way, I won't be prejudiced in the way I trade, just better prepared. You really must get to grips with where possible resistance and support levels are, for whatever direction the market moves. It's no good hanging onto a trade that's gone against you, only to find later in the day that you clearly let it fail major support or resistance and failed to hit the stop button. This is one of the most basic mistakes that beginners make. Holding and hoping.
Last week's close at a triple bottom set the mood for coming off a bottom and so it did, eventually. I can see a possible triangle forming in RSI and CCI so we could get a nice breakout.That would/should break the 9380 downtrend line at today's close.
9350 has now been tested as support and should hold good tomorrow. So if you are long and the price drops below 9350, YOU KNOW WHAT YOU HAVE TO DO!

 

[ChartMan]

Shaky,uncertain start with a failed bull flag that could have sent us way down but in the end, it didn't. The bottom call came from the PD across the 25 minute minimum, confirmation coming by way of an immediate break back through 9300 and on. T1 is from the Inv. H&S and T2 is from the pullback around 9332. Both these were useful targets that were met, and followed on into an easy ND top, even though it was "stretched" more than usual. Should have been a nice 80 + trade. The rest of the day was relatively messy, with no clear cut opportunities. Staying long OR short, may have saved the day. 3 or 4 chances to get out at the 9400 failures and the same at 9350.

 

[china white]

CM,

excellent analysis as always - goes w/o saying mate.... just a cupl quick notes on how trading was coming along on my end. In the morning, at 10:30 - I went short the B/D of the triangle - I did not c the failed bull flag, but the tri was quite nicely chiseled. Hastily covered at 9264 Dec fut - magic 64, but on futs - the rest is clear. The hint as to where cover longs came from 15 min Volume MA - petered out and went down at about 12:15. The only pt I wanted to make here is that it is really worth ur while to watch YM and ES at the same time - the 2nd attempt at 1005 (ES) at 15:00 was a risky ND - good to short and hold until an R/S switch (1 min RSI) developed on ES (sort of on YM as well, but I agree, it was less transparent) at 15:45. + potential cup&handle formation brewing => reverse to longs until the end. Lovely day with up to 180 pts on the table (w/o doubling).

I reckon its worth noting that today's lod was lower than Friday's but today's close was higher than Friday's hod (ES and YM). I keep on forgetting what this is properly called - its not key reversal its some other tag - but the msg is the same....

 

[JE2000]

Does anyone know the Dow and SP500 futures symbols for the sierra chart software?

 

[ChartMan]

Their "free2 dow is INDU. The others will depend on your data feed supplier. MyTrack S&P fututures is ES`Z

 

[ChartMan]

Yes China, those that want the best advantage, need to keep an eye on NAS and S&P, maybe like the three wise monkeys?

 

[mombasa]

Thx CM - sometimes u have to hammer these things in for the hard of hearing

 

[JE2000]

Thx CM. Mytrack is the data supplier.

 

[JE2000]

Is there a board where it will give details on how to change:
- chart background
- RSI settings (70 and 30 lines)
- Volume (buy and sell colours)
- etc.

Very new to the software and still learning.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

sc
right click>studies>setting>adjust from here

 

[JE2000]

Found a discussion group on Yahoo.

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SierraChartUsers/

 

[JE2000]

Does anyone know how to setup the 70 and 30 boundaries for RSI on Sierra. I have got everything else except that.

 

[JE2000]

Problem solved. Using the wrong indicator. Was using RSI: Rate of Change instead of RSI.

 

[JE2000]

9350 is holding up well in the futures market (CMC)

 

[china white]

CM. spot-on! u may argue that NDX or IXIC r different markets (not blue-chips, like YM or ES or SP100), however, they r more than often the leaders for the blue-chips. They usually B/O or B/D respective TA formations first. However, from my observations, they've got a higher rate of fake B/O or B/D on intraday scales.

 

[china white]

current point

lads

this is what I make out of where we r at the mo: we had the "healthiest pullback" ever which retraced 61.8% of the rally since August 6 (down to 988 on ES) on increased volatility readings. We tested and bounced off 988 earlier today on the worst combination of news and econ numbers. I wud expect the mrkt to turn sharply higher now, possibly re-testing 988 tomorrow. This scenario will be void if 988 is taken out and ES stays below 988 for at least half an hour. In that case Spooz is in big trouble - and I'd expect 920ish prints before long.

 

[china white]

a bit of finer detail

one more lads - where I c action levels for tomorrow. As I mentioned in the previous mail 988 is fly or die support, 995 is a nice level to be long above IMHO :cheesy: ; 1001 is about time to double your longs :cheesy: ; and a B/O above 1005 will probably drive ES up to re-test 1038 highs :arrowu: happy Trading!

 

[ChartMan]

Oh Dear, Oh Dear. I hope you all read my last post about support at 9350 and what to do if it was lost as support .......CLOSE IT!!!!
Bang goes my theory of coming off 9350 as a solid bottom. Bang goes the triangle break to the upside. I don't have any claims to being right, so there we are. Admitting you're wrong is 95% of the battle I think...... So now we're back to sitting nicely in the down channel and no sign of a reversal. 9250 for support and 9300 for resistance it is then, making a double bottom from 27th Aug.

 

[ChartMan]

Just a quickie tonight... an unusual bull flag at the open, coupled with PD and a perfect break on the third peak was a good signal for going long. IF you had the balls, you could have jumped on the short as 9350 failed... with the accompanying fear factor of the first half hour.... Holding through the 9264 whipsaws was the sensible option- until that got resolved. Same thing around the '32's... And that paid out... with an exit on the third peak of the ND. OK so there was more to come, but on balance, there usually isn't and this game is about banking winners at the "appropriate " time and cutting losers ASAP.That would have netted around 70 points for the up move and the best part of a ton IF you took the NO FEAR route at the open. Next sensible move was a short at 19:29 as 9332 was lost... Hard call as to whether to cover coming off 9300 or hold...
As China White says, we've arrived at a 62% retrace and I think we're at a crossroads- drop or fly. Wait and see. You don't get any points for second guessing. All one can say is that if 9250 is lost, there's a big hole underneath it and a big opportunity for a nice short.....

 

[china white]

where will the Handle come?

Lads,

just wanted to share with u the way I c it. A B/O thru 1005 opened the gate for the bull, with any matadors trying to fight him being swept out of the way :cheesy: Note the importance of 1007.25 - here comes the beauty of 61.8% retracements - if the mrkt bounces off it, former 38.2% level (1007.25 in this case) becomes DOUBLE Fib level, as it is the 38.2% retracement of that 61.8% retracement! No wonder we spent quite a bit of time round that level - and my take it'll be an important support for tomorrow's price action.

What i am seeing here is a nice round Cup either formed or forming. I'd say there r 2 scenarios 4 tomorrow:

1) we get a Handle stretching from 1015, most likely descending down to 1007.25! and a steep rally afterwards; or

2)we get a spill-over rally up to 1028 first and the Handle will come off those levels down to today's close of 1015.

Either way I believe that at least 1038 will be re-visited. However, I will be trading what will be going off in the mrkt, not in my head!