Dow Intraday charts 16/06 - 20/06

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Let's check the 10 min chart.... You know I like the channel lines that the DOW inhabits. I had a choice on Sunday. Up or Down? It's a guess. But I guessed with a bit of hindsight. We had a triangle on the price and on CCI. Worst case down was 9100/9150 and we hit channel support and a second correction, and then up. OR we get a break of the triangle and take off.If we break , we'll end up at resistance of 9350. This is the Support / Resistance switch line line and it will be difficult to break. Lastly RSI was at a well oversold level, and even if it had dropped further, the price had nowhere to go. So next we'll take a look at Intraday today.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
I've now lost count of the number of times my estimate in the DOW comp has come good a day late.....
I have to say this because, from experience, AND I used to do it because I thought there was merit or street cred in it. Don't be swayed by things you read about when it comes to "predicting the day's direction. Sure, You'll win some and sure, you'll lose some. Just take on board facts, and not guesses. Take a look at those facts and see how they match your own interpretation. Then jot down a few key points that relate to those facts. Leave it at that. Capitulation is for the market, not for us traders. I noticed the totally negative effect this seemed to have in the chat room today.
OK. Armed with the facts, you should have had a clear idea in your mind of where the channel lines were going. It's clear at the open that the mid channel line was being tested, and broke to the upside.The Bull triangle here gave us T1 on the break- duly delivered. Then the mini pullback at the magic 32 to give a target of 9274. We never made it.
The rest was a bore....... But yet another good day for the 100MA traders... go long, stay long, close at the close for an easy 100-150 points, depending on you entry or whether you closed and re-entered. Horizontal support meets the uptrend channel support line, so attach a bit more relevance to 9240 and be prepared for it to drop that and test 9232 , the magic number...
Finally, a reminder. Take a good look at the RSI/Price drops/rises and work out the ratios. From these you can determine at any time whether the previous move was strong or weak. Taking a long position following a weak drop makes sense as you know the chances of a rapid drop against you is minimal. The converse is true too. Taking a short position following a weak peak ...... The weakest point is RSI 40 and the strongest is RSI 80, so where are you going to place your trades? Assuming you want to take a trade at all. No position is a valid position.
Finally. Do you see any similarity between tonight's close, and a close one day last week? Is this another one of those "dead certs" where you hold overnight? ARE YOU SURE? Do you feel lucky, p***? :cheesy:
 

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mombasa

Established member
561 1
Hi CM,

I was following the chatroom as usual and must admit the Tom H predictions did seem to infleunce ppl there - for myself I tried to ignore it (but it's difficult) and did as u advise - trade what u see. Still couldn't believe how strong the Dow was tho :).

Q1 : My first long entry was on the first pullback at about 14.48 when RSI was 60'ish - When the price continued to drop it spooked me out and I closed on the first rise for a small profit. In hindsight I should have waited. On pullbacks should one wait for RSI to drop more ie is it usually the case that a real pullback is always associated with a low RSI (talking about longs here).

Q2: There didn't seem to be any clear 3pk ND yesterday?

thx
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Correct, no ND tops yesterday. If you got spooked out, do you need to reduce your stake? There was no reason to go long when you did.... so I'd put that entry into the "gamble area", with a half stake.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Still in the channel, but will the bull triangle that developed today break to the upside, or will we crash? 9350 for up,9300 loss for down.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Some people got some good popints shorting today- a good plan to begin with, but then it went pear shaped.The pullback around 9300 had a target of 9270 that didn't get breached,and the flat bottomed divergence at RSI 15 ( way below recent lows) signalled a long.... That was the easy bit. The rest of the day was hard. Short and sweet.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
10 min chart...
Crash it was then. BUT..... not for long I feel.No predictions but there is a clear RS switch on RSI and CCI so I'll be looking for some upside. The RSI and CCI down channel can't go much lower so either the price will crash on channel ND, or will break out into a new range and the next channel up.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Not an easy day to trade today. No real clues to trade off bar the odd short divergence and the longer one that started at 19:30. I said yesterday the triangle would break or crash and you should have taken your direction from that.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
From yesterday…. Crash or burn …. And burn it was. Something just had to give. If you bend a cane stick too far, it'll break and poke you in the nose or fly and kill a Pig.. ( flying pig that is) But now we have even more divergence setting in on RSI with 3 horizontal lows against a falling price so maybe now we'll go up. The price channels have moved down again into another correction band at a support level.
The key is RSI failing to touch channel support....and CCI going to extreme lows.
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
What can I tell you that you didn't already know. Figures at 3pm and 5pm says it all. Staying short under the 100MA would have netted a max today. A rare delivering open divergence way the key, but a risk, as always at the open. There was a tempting short at 9280 but patience would have been rewarded for the second shot at this level. The 25 point price rise for for a 50 gain in RSI just before 5pm news could have been a clue. It was. Who in their right mind wants to be in a position at news time? This weakness in the rise showed no one was interested in taking a position so the MM's hiked the price up? The rest was plain sailing and boring, barely popping it's eyes over the 100MA for a nice leasurely 100 odd points.
 

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SUNSEEKER

Established member
872 12
Chartman, would you use a big candle surge( impulse ) wave away from the 100 MA to take a position, or would you need more confirmation from your RSI and your CCI
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
The key is a pullback towards the 100MA. I have never considered candle magnitude as an entry criteria.....
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Short report to close the week. Things to note- PD's and ND's. We discussed in the chat room the weakness of price v RSI and why it was important to sit on your hands. Notice the messy RSI around luchtime that I tried to unravel with Awlee. Not easy.
Note the T1 failure and the dbl. bottom/pd all coming together to point to a long....
 

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ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
And so to the 10 min chart . This is now brewing up for a break to the upside. Divergence continues( takes a while on a 10 min chart) and there is a possible RS switch in the making, as RSI comes off support making a higher low. Look back at the RSI lows - they all bottom around 30.... As for a target, I'm not giving that away, I need the comp points . :cheesy:
 

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china white

Established member
979 12
Lads,

hope u r enjoying yr w/e. I just sat back and took a butchers at daily charts (so much 4 a day trader!). On S&P we had 2 classic dojis, a sell-off and a doji on Friday. So Monday is crucial IMO - if we go lower - gloom and doom is back and I can't c spooz stopping anywhere b4 it jits 950. If we bounce - morning star will b shining and I will turn super-bulliah (up until 1030).

Now a different perspective - forget about candlesticks now. Thez quite a gap btwn indices now. S&P500, S&P100 and NDX100 have major sups below closing on Friday (988-990 on spooz and clear-cut 1200 on the swift one). However, the Dirty 30 closed on its respective sup of 9200. Whichever way u take it - Monday is crucial again.

My take is - if u r bull for Monday action, go lg DJIA. If it turns sour, short spooz, but keep 988-990 in mind.

I personally think thell b no major tanking b4 the end of the quarter - but this is beyond TA :) Watch euro-trash :) in the early going on Monday - may provide a clue......

Ehjoy yr w/e!
 
 
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