A nice bounce down off 64 at the start followed by the double top at 64. Looking oversold as we approached 800 it was unlikely 800 was going to break on this push down.
A pullback to 32 which was approx 50% retrace of the morning's move down so another 60 points down to come? It did more or less in the end but not before another test of 32 and a lot of choppiness.
Looking oversold again at the end of the day on both RSI and CCI.
I am being very cautious about trading this week due to the light volume.
Justyn.
A pullback to 32 which was approx 50% retrace of the morning's move down so another 60 points down to come? It did more or less in the end but not before another test of 32 and a lot of choppiness.
Looking oversold again at the end of the day on both RSI and CCI.
I am being very cautious about trading this week due to the light volume.
Justyn.
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Looking at the 10 min chart ....
2 scenarios spring to mind:
1. Looks like a double top at 864
2. Looks like a 100 point pullback from the 200 point move up from 664-864 so we're headed ultimately for 964
RSI is low and it looks like an R/S switch coming up so I'd say we're heading up?
As always trade what you see not what you think!
Justyn.
2 scenarios spring to mind:
1. Looks like a double top at 864
2. Looks like a 100 point pullback from the 200 point move up from 664-864 so we're headed ultimately for 964
RSI is low and it looks like an R/S switch coming up so I'd say we're heading up?
As always trade what you see not what you think!
Justyn.
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tradesmart
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Hello Justyn, and I hope that you and young Harry James and all the rest of the family are very well……!?
And a YO HO HO…..!........... :cheesy:
(is it Santa Claus or Long John Silver who say’s that…..?…!......
)
Never mind…...
Anyway, the Santa Claus Rally is in full swing and I’m making a fortune…..!
(but only a small one.....!..... )
In the big picture we have a big channel and the target of 11300, mentioned previously, is still in the sights imho…..
Bulls rool OK…..?...........
And a YO HO HO…..!........... :cheesy:
(is it Santa Claus or Long John Silver who say’s that…..?…!......
)Never mind…...
Anyway, the Santa Claus Rally is in full swing and I’m making a fortune…..!
(but only a small one.....!.....
)In the big picture we have a big channel and the target of 11300, mentioned previously, is still in the sights imho…..
Bulls rool OK…..?...........
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Hi Tradesmart,
Too much festive sherry by any chance?
My "mini me" is enjoying the Santa rally too - see the piccy!
Well I said it looked like we were heading up and for once I was right
Looks a little like a bull flag today with a target of 900-ish to me? Plenty of room on the 10 min chart for more up, we just need to break the recent highs at 864 first.
Very quiet in here this week, I was going to give trading a miss myself until New Year but the addiction is too strong .... I'm hoping to cut down to one trade per day in the new year :cheesy:
Justyn.
Too much festive sherry by any chance?
My "mini me" is enjoying the Santa rally too - see the piccy!
Well I said it looked like we were heading up and for once I was right
Looks a little like a bull flag today with a target of 900-ish to me? Plenty of room on the 10 min chart for more up, we just need to break the recent highs at 864 first.
Very quiet in here this week, I was going to give trading a miss myself until New Year but the addiction is too strong .... I'm hoping to cut down to one trade per day in the new year :cheesy:
Justyn.
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roguetrader
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Quetsion for any fib followers, does a close above 78.6% retrace on the appropriate timeframe chart suggest a full retracement? Or have I mis-read that somewhere?
tradesmart
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tradesmart said:Possibility of an intraday ‘W’ bottom in this setup imho – long at 820 (YM) stop at 815….
(tank below 815 setup obviously fails…..)
Maybe we’ll see a rise to 860 ish to fill the opening gap and meet the ‘W’ target.....
Didn't quite deliver... but there's a pd now + exp. triangle on RSI.Bear flag target is 800 so the bounce off 805 might be a failure...
tradesmart
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Yes - support at 815 ish looked rock solid, but it always does 'til it fails........
Fortunately had a chance to move stop to B/E..........
Now at +33 for the day.........
Some low-volume mm's capers going on......!?........
Fortunately had a chance to move stop to B/E..........
Now at +33 for the day.........
Some low-volume mm's capers going on......!?........
Hi Tradesmart, Can i ask If you are trading futures & holding overnight.? If yes, just wondered what kind of stops you use. I mean if they are guaranteed in any way. ?
By the way, nice to see u all looking in over the xmas break . But then again the telly isn't up to much is it. :cheesy:
By the way, nice to see u all looking in over the xmas break . But then again the telly isn't up to much is it. :cheesy:
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tradesmart
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Gollum – I’m trading YM here which is Dow mini futures contracts (but I also trade stocks/commodities/forex at times…)
I do hold overnight, but generally only if it’s a ‘breakaway’ trade and I’ve got at least 150/200 points in the bag and I’ll put a 50 point trailing stop in as the after-hours movements can be very volatile…
The stops aren’t guaranteed, and if there’s a market move/gap against your position you could get involved in slippage…but it hasn't happened to me yet.... !
I do hold overnight, but generally only if it’s a ‘breakaway’ trade and I’ve got at least 150/200 points in the bag and I’ll put a 50 point trailing stop in as the after-hours movements can be very volatile…
The stops aren’t guaranteed, and if there’s a market move/gap against your position you could get involved in slippage…but it hasn't happened to me yet.... !
tradesmart
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Well, Yeh – not to mention the firkin of Drambuie and the hogshead of Tia Maria….
Strictly in the interests of being sociable you understand…….
(now long from 810 – the bulls are having an evening ‘sniff’ at it now…!…... :cheesy: )
ps - Lovely photo of young Harry James- a chip off of the 'old block' I'm sure (a budding 'Wall Street Winner' just like his Dad......!.....
)
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tradesmart
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A bit of an uninspiring performance today but a few trades to be had for keen screen watchers (that doesn’t include me, but the money comes in handy..!?…. )
Murphy’s law dictated that I posted the only unsuccessful trade of the day above – which looked like an almost ‘dead cert’ ‘W’ setup at the time, but probably in search of more volume (and spread money….!) they took it to the next support level down….
Just to prove that there are no ‘dead certs’……!......... :cheesy:
Anyway:-
1.Short at 838 resistance on price/rsi divergence, and out on PD at prior support at 820 delivered +18
2.Long at 820 - 815 support retest and PD – out at ND for +15
3.Long 820 again at speculative ‘W’ bottom setup for B/E…..(815 support failed)
4.Long at first pullback to 810 after support PD and R/S switch (also time was right at about 14.36ET..) held to close for +28……
All trades were taken with a 5 point stop which was moved to B/E as soon as trade ‘pulled away’….
I wouldn’t be surprised if the first thing it does tomorrow is go to 865 to close today’s opening gap – I thought that would happen today……
)Murphy’s law dictated that I posted the only unsuccessful trade of the day above – which looked like an almost ‘dead cert’ ‘W’ setup at the time, but probably in search of more volume (and spread money….!) they took it to the next support level down….
Just to prove that there are no ‘dead certs’……!......... :cheesy:
Anyway:-
1.Short at 838 resistance on price/rsi divergence, and out on PD at prior support at 820 delivered +18
2.Long at 820 - 815 support retest and PD – out at ND for +15
3.Long 820 again at speculative ‘W’ bottom setup for B/E…..(815 support failed)
4.Long at first pullback to 810 after support PD and R/S switch (also time was right at about 14.36ET..) held to close for +28……
All trades were taken with a 5 point stop which was moved to B/E as soon as trade ‘pulled away’….
I wouldn’t be surprised if the first thing it does tomorrow is go to 865 to close today’s opening gap – I thought that would happen today……
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frugi
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Good to see that you regulars don't ignore your posting duties over Christmas :cheesy: Good work one and all.
I'm meant to be on holiday till after New Year but thought I'd post today's bottom for interest. It looked like a pretty solid long.
Sorry the numbers are missing from the RHS of the chart.
Big TICK PD.
Big RSI PD.
Big volume climax at 18:21 with a close in upper third of bar.
Less volume on the subsequent tests of 800ish.
Bottom took a good half an hour to form.
Century number 800 and a support area from last few days.
Seasonal bullish cheer.
A long could perhaps have been exited after the 5 waves up, around 20:30-20:40 (note RSI ND starting from 19:50ish too) although there was a bit more in the move. I'd have chickened out much earlier, of course.
Also on a different (& unsure) note, I just noticed that the 19:28 - 19:31 bars might have been a clue that the nasty pullback was just that. See how the 19:28 bar closed at the support level established between 18:50-19:00 despite knocking out a few stops a pip or two below first. A low volume holiday day often seems to be a source of nasty tricks like this, but remember I could be reading it all wrong - I am NO p&v expert.
Hope everyone's had a pleasant Christmas any road
I'm meant to be on holiday till after New Year but thought I'd post today's bottom for interest. It looked like a pretty solid long.
Sorry the numbers are missing from the RHS of the chart.
Big TICK PD.
Big RSI PD.
Big volume climax at 18:21 with a close in upper third of bar.
Less volume on the subsequent tests of 800ish.
Bottom took a good half an hour to form.
Century number 800 and a support area from last few days.
Seasonal bullish cheer.
A long could perhaps have been exited after the 5 waves up, around 20:30-20:40 (note RSI ND starting from 19:50ish too) although there was a bit more in the move. I'd have chickened out much earlier, of course.
Also on a different (& unsure) note, I just noticed that the 19:28 - 19:31 bars might have been a clue that the nasty pullback was just that. See how the 19:28 bar closed at the support level established between 18:50-19:00 despite knocking out a few stops a pip or two below first. A low volume holiday day often seems to be a source of nasty tricks like this, but remember I could be reading it all wrong - I am NO p&v expert.
Hope everyone's had a pleasant Christmas any road
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excellent posts from frugi and tradesmart, I may not be trading at the moment due to work , but am still learning from your contributions. Frugi , just curious which charting package do you use?
I'll be in full time trading swing in the new year and hope to be psoting regular.
Thanks
I'll be in full time trading swing in the new year and hope to be psoting regular.
Thanks
tradesmart
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Tsk..! - On holiday and still got 'bottoms' on your mind Frugi...!.....it won't be a break that refreshes will it.......?.......!!.......
The Dow in a 90 point sideways consolidation range now, and is there a triangle forming with the recent ‘lower high’ and ‘higher low’…..?
I would expect the break to be in the direction of the trend ie:- up, but as always it’s a ‘wait and see’ job……..
An upward break should take the index to c.11000 imho….
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frugi
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Tops or bottoms TS, I'm not fussy, as long as they're well defined
Thanks Sall,
I use Sierra chart with a My Track data feed. Cheap, clear and cheerful. It looks like TS does as well, despite his efforts to disguise the fact with that black background and all those extra lines
Yes I wouldn't bet against up into New Year as the big boys secure their bonuses; then it can be allowed a sharp drop in January.
Thanks Sall,
I use Sierra chart with a My Track data feed. Cheap, clear and cheerful. It looks like TS does as well, despite his efforts to disguise the fact with that black background and all those extra lines
Yes I wouldn't bet against up into New Year as the big boys secure their bonuses; then it can be allowed a sharp drop in January.
