It has been shown historically that 32 and 64 can be important decision points when trading the Dow. Don't ask me why, they just are. Mostly, that can be used to your advantage as to whether to open, close or hold a trade.
Yes, the more touches on a support/resistance line, the harder it will be to break. When eventually it does , it usually breaks out stronger.
If you got caught on the drop, you probably weren't alone....But the PD and pullback to 40 ( close to 10 min support) should have been a good entry... Holding through that pullback to 60 could well have been too much to stomach at 30 points...but a near perfect bounce on the 100MA and 64 should have seen you back in if you got out.Then an out on the ND top at 80 for an easy 100+ with little more that 10 points pullback all the way through. Interesting how 10K just didn't seem to provide any resistance at all. The second RSI weakness should have had you looking for another long entry, rather than a short off the top. Remember, the ND top is not a signal to go short without good reason.... Not long to wait for the RS switch and the early break of the bull flag around 10064 and a long into the close.
Appreciate the analysis and still read it every day.
If possible I would like to get your opinion on tick charts, I have been trading the EUR futs for the past couple of months using a 55 tick ( E signal ) though continued to use the 1 min to trade the YM.
Over the past few days I have run a 55T YM alongside the 1 min and so far have found it to give clearer and more precise signals, the main advantage being at times of inactivity it prints more concise flags etc. and when the market is on the move I have found pullbacks easier to call.
This may be a fluke but wondered if you have ever done any work on tick charts ? , obviously they are not available on the Dow only the futs but am I missing any potential pitfalls?
Difficult to predict the outcome of today’s tight ranged, choppy consolidation after yesterday’s big move, but overall looking quite bullish now imho, and a break north through the 100ema (if it gets that far…!?) will confirm impetus……
The old traders saying mentioned last week “the bigger the fall, the broader the bottom” seems to be holding good, with the current bottom (?!) comparable in breadth to the one that occurred in March; preceding a 570 point upleg…….. :-0
"The way oil bounces, so does the market," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
"But I think we've really tested a bottom. Even if we sell off today, we won't give back all of yesterday's rally."