A window on Gold? Keep peering thru the looking Glass

[andycan]

Gold is screwed
i think i said that before

 

[Pippppin]

Gold is screwed
i think i said that before

you probably have......but you are likely to know as much, and as little, about the future direction of gold as my next door neighbour, and his...

 

[andycan]

you probably have......but you are likely to know as much, and as little, about the future direction of gold as my next door neighbour, and his...

hahahaha you are funny

 

[gugaplex]

No offense, but I think Andycan is right here. Gold is hovering, but can't seem to find much momentum. If there is a bit of momentum to $640, I would completely cash-out and wait until the low $500's to re-establish a position.

(Click my homepage for some stock tips and such)

 

[andycan]

No offense, but I think Andycan is right here. Gold is hovering, but can't seem to find much momentum. If there is a bit of momentum to $640, I would completely cash-out and wait until the low $500's to re-establish a position.

(Click my homepage for some stock tips and such)

Gold is not the leader thats a clue to how one can stack the odds in their favour :cheesy:
or you could ask pippppin's neighbour

 

[Atilla]

you probably have......but you are likely to know as much, and as little, about the future direction of gold as my next door neighbour, and his...

The direction of gold is dependent on uncertainty. Besides economic growth and fashion, geopolitical risk is the main driving factor.

When the $ falls it causes uncertainty, revaluations of reserves takes place and gold goes up.

At the moment UN have applied sanctions against Iran. UAE apparently trades with Iran and have been accused by the US of supplying it with techno prods.

It's retalliating by moving out of $ and into Euros coupled with Iran trying to setup an Oil bourse traded in Euros.

I think moving into next year we have a number of uncertainties and the Iranian scenarios to play out.

Weakness or inflation in the US is also causing uncertainty. Central banks are likely to diversify out the $ and coupled with foreign currencies a gold plays a nice part in reserves.

Technically, on my weekly charts I see a narrowing wedge which usually follow through in the direction of the trend which should be upwards in my opinion. If Gold ever falls to 500 or less regions banks and other countries will be buying it like mad to dump the dollar.

Looking at being wrong, if uncertainties and wars die down, then economic growth and probably fashion will take off and demand for gold is still likely to be good and hold up its value.

Hence I can't see gold falling below 600 or 560-80 as possible support lines as has been mentioned before.

 

[andycan]

The direction of gold is dependent on uncertainty. Besides economic growth and fashion, geopolitical risk is the main driving factor.

When the $ falls it causes uncertainty, revaluations of reserves takes place and gold goes up.

At the moment UN have applied sanctions against Iran. UAE apparently trades with Iran and have been accused by the US of supplying it with techno prods.

It's retalliating by moving out of $ and into Euros coupled with Iran trying to setup an Oil bourse traded in Euros.

I think moving into next year we have a number of uncertainties and the Iranian scenarios to play out.

Weakness or inflation in the US is also causing uncertainty. Central banks are likely to diversify out the $ and coupled with foreign currencies a gold plays a nice part in reserves.

Technically, on my weekly charts I see a narrowing wedge which usually follow through in the direction of the trend which should be upwards in my opinion. If Gold ever falls to 500 or less regions banks and other countries will be buying it like mad to dump the dollar.

Looking at being wrong, if uncertainties and wars die down, then economic growth and probably fashion will take off and demand for gold is still likely to be good and hold up its value.

Hence I can't see gold falling below 600 or 560-80 as possible support lines as has been mentioned before.

one small problem and this was the same argument being put forward whilst crude was at the highs
crude according to the experts was going to $100+ (experts my a...)
now consider this and this you can check on every commodity
when it goes up parabolic it gives it all up and some
and there isn't one commodity that has not done that so irrespective of fundamentals gold will go down thats a given
the issue is when, if it was a seasonal then timing is easier but gold along with crude are not and hence its a matter of assessing how it goes down

 

[Atilla]

one small problem and this was the same argument being put forward whilst crude was at the highs
crude according to the experts was going to $100+ (experts my a...)
now consider this and this you can check on every commodity
when it goes up parabolic it gives it all up and some
and there isn't one commodity that has not done that so irrespective of fundamentals gold will go down thats a given
the issue is when, if it was a seasonal then timing is easier but gold along with crude are not and hence its a matter of assessing how it goes down

I beg to differ. It's the uncertainty factor that keeps gold up high is my main point. I can't see uncertainties being cleared up in the next year or so. In fact I see them getting worse or multiplying.

1. Until the Middle East - Iraq - Iran issues are resolved
2. Until the US $ is strengthened (BoP & Budget defecit resolved) I can't see it happening.

Regarding oil though it's a finite commodity. Experts were saying $70 & $80 when it was $55 and they got it right. It touched $77. I think if car purchase goes the way it is in India & China I don't think $100 is beyond imagination. I'd guess the new range is likely to be $55-$65 for the foreseeable future if no shocks disturb the markets. What I'm saying is $100 is round the corner.

Some experts were talking about similar scenario to post Gulf-War1 - when oil tuched $16. I'm sure they felt likewise post Iraq war along with the Bush Cheney mafiozuies. I listened to oil experts lecture on how it would drop to $35-$45 realistically in the next 6 months and that was way back in 2003 April shortly after the so called end of the war.

On a purely supply and demand basis the whole global demand with the developments in China and India have shifted. Hence, if supply is the same, price has to rise to a new level.

Water was so abundant it used to be considered free. Now people sell the stuff.

Air is so abundant it is still free but with pollution there will be a tax on pollution ie free air.

I believe we are in the cusp of a new era and some fundamentals will change fundamentally :!:

 

[andycan]

I beg to differ. It's the uncertainty factor that keeps gold up high is my main point. I can't see uncertainties being cleared up in the next year or so. In fact I see them getting worse or multiplying.

1. Until the Middle East - Iraq - Iran issues are resolved
2. Until the US $ is strengthened (BoP & Budget defecit resolved) I can't see it happening.

Regarding oil though it's a finite commodity. Experts were saying $70 & $80 when it was $55 and they got it right. It touched $77. I think if car purchase goes the way it is in India & China I don't think $100 is beyond imagination. I'd guess the new range is likely to be $55-$65 for the foreseeable future if no shocks disturb the markets. What I'm saying is $100 is round the corner.

Some experts were talking about similar scenario to post Gulf-War1 - when oil tuched $16. I'm sure they felt likewise post Iraq war along with the Bush Cheney mafiozuies. I listened to oil experts lecture on how it would drop to $35-$45 realistically in the next 6 months and that was way back in 2003 April shortly after the so called end of the war.

On a purely supply and demand basis the whole global demand with the developments in China and India have shifted. Hence, if supply is the same, price has to rise to a new level.

Water was so abundant it used to be considered free. Now people sell the stuff.

Air is so abundant it is still free but with pollution there will be a tax on pollution ie free air.

I believe we are in the cusp of a new era and some fundamentals will change fundamentally :!:

no my friend its the uncertainty factor that makes the markets what they are
i can argue a million reasons to agree and disagree with you im looking at gold from a technical perspective, there are many factors that looks to me that it will go down long term, but let say you are right its irrelevant to me because when the set up is right i will buy it or sell it irrespective of main direction

 

[Atilla]

no my friend its the uncertainty factor that makes the markets what they are
i can argue a million reasons to agree and disagree with you im looking at gold from a technical perspective, there are many factors that looks to me that it will go down long term, but let say you are right its irrelevant to me because when the set up is right i will buy it or sell it irrespective of main direction

Agreed fair point. I'm not forcing a view, merely stating my own personal understanding for the reasons.

I'm basically throwing my vote into the ring that all commodity prices will remain at a higher level than what they were in the last two decades. In that sense it's a different perspective to yours thats all.

To expand on the shift in the demand perspective...

Market popullation sizes are
US Market - 350 million
European - 550 million

India - 1.0 billion
China - 1.3 billion

Basicaly, with the industrialisation and improvement in the purchasing power of India and Chinas growing economies, the market has grown 3 fold but supplies of commodities and energy sources supplies have not.

My point on the fundamentals is purely economic. Supply and Demand.

 

[The Baptist]

Agreed fair point. I'm not forcing a view, merely stating my own personal understanding for the reasons.

I'm basically throwing my vote into the ring that all commodity prices will remain at a higher level than what they were in the last two decades. In that sense it's a different perspective to yours thats all.

To expand on the shift in the demand perspective...

Market popullation sizes are
US Market - 350 million
European - 550 million

India - 1.0 billion
China - 1.3 billion

Basicaly, with the industrialisation and improvement in the purchasing power of India and Chinas growing economies, the market has grown 3 fold but supplies of commodities and energy sources supplies have not.

My point on the fundamentals is purely economic. Supply and Demand.

I concur with the fact that soemthings have moved on, I expect a more prolonged commodity supercyclye generally.

I also believe the bush doctrine has done immeasurable damage to the green back as apart from the fundamentals that were always so poor and worsening for the dollar, it was still kept afloat by others being prepared to buy and keep the 'Dollar ponzi scheme in the air'.

With the M.East (lead by Iran and behind the scenes by Saudi) and Latin (Chavez & Co.) nations largely antogonised by the current US foreign policy. Not that they are entirely agreeable lot themselves in the US's defence.

It would not surprise me if a few smaller nations are planning on pulling the rug on supporting the USD, Korea has already announced diversifying into Euro's. While some of these have some oil money they are not huge, but China & Japan are not going to want to be the last through the door when the secret is out and the USD is truly dumped, the possibility even US hedge funds could end up coining it by shorting their own currency, ala Soros and GBP.

Things can stay out of balance for awhile fundamentally until a trigger and then they can adjust violently.

Regardless of whose opinion is shown as right, Andycan is right, I too will trade only the set up. But my suspicion is if there are any big risk days, I would sooner be in Euro/Gold then USD

 

[The Baptist]

Buy Gold NOW for long run up!

Buystops in place for weeks and months being triggered, Crude upside and USD weakness ready to play ball too, me thinks.

Intraday Baptist flag has seen move through a number of recent technical levels.

Also looks like the primary move, the last 6 months set up, had always promised.

Heavily Long and optimistic (for Now).

 

[Atilla]

Buystops in place for weeks and months being triggered, Crude upside and USD weakness ready to play ball too, me thinks.

Intraday Baptist flag has seen move through a number of recent technical levels.

Also looks like the primary move, the last 6 months set up, had always promised.

Heavily Long and optimistic (for Now).

Whilst I agree gold is going up and is likely to continue upon the weakness of the $ and potential confrontation between Iran and US, I would watch the Democrats opposing the Republicans closely.

Any indication the US will call off the attack will mean gold may retreat briefly.

Otherwise I'm in long and deep with a stop loss at 635. I've got my sights at 660-700. 670. Will take gradual profits until 700. May re-enter if 710 is breached.

I'd guess March is going to be a rough time for the markets. Time for bear picnics...