tradesmart
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The big picture shows that the Dow formed a nice RSI/CCI support base at the at October lows and both of those indicators show plenty of overhead room for growth.
We might have intraday/multi-day pullbacks as various patterns are formed, but I believe the overall message is – “it’s going up..!”
We might have intraday/multi-day pullbacks as various patterns are formed, but I believe the overall message is – “it’s going up..!”
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tradesmart
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Plainly news to you – does “target at least 10300 and there will be more for Christmas” ring a bell…….?!……..
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Looks better than it actually was..... The bear flag at the start of the PD didn't deliver, but you could have exited for BE and reversed..... or waited for the pullback to the 100MA at 570. Then a swift exit at 620 maybe...Would have made sense with CCI and RSI well into O/S. Not a lot to get your teeth into really as the open didn't show up much.I suppose the gamblers among us might have shorted right at the open and picked up another er 30+ points...RSI O/B at 90 looked a golden opportunity but you have to remember that with a big gap at the open, the indicators get well and truly skewed so you can't /shouldn't rely on what you see.
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Intraday DOW Trading
Hello Everybody
I have been reading the posts of Chartman, TraderTony and latterly Debs for a number of months and trying to understand the Dow trading system. I have decided the best way of learing is doing so I thought it would be useful for me and perhaps others to post my days activity and get any responses positive or negative. So here goes.
2.30pm Market up strongly and considering a short based on oversold indicator on RSI, but this does not conform to the system and its a gamble so I decided not to do anything.
15.20 market breaks 100ema. looking for pullback that comes. Should be an entry short but I feel market has lost its desire to go further down. I do not have any further explanation than that. This proves a good choice.
16.45 market breaks ema and pullsback and this time I enter long. I believe a twin peak ND forms between 16.50-17.30. Third peak forms 18.30 so I exit. this proves a bad choice as the market than rallies. perhaps this third peak was not one!
No other trades that day.
Ended day up +21
Hello Everybody
I have been reading the posts of Chartman, TraderTony and latterly Debs for a number of months and trying to understand the Dow trading system. I have decided the best way of learing is doing so I thought it would be useful for me and perhaps others to post my days activity and get any responses positive or negative. So here goes.
2.30pm Market up strongly and considering a short based on oversold indicator on RSI, but this does not conform to the system and its a gamble so I decided not to do anything.
15.20 market breaks 100ema. looking for pullback that comes. Should be an entry short but I feel market has lost its desire to go further down. I do not have any further explanation than that. This proves a good choice.
16.45 market breaks ema and pullsback and this time I enter long. I believe a twin peak ND forms between 16.50-17.30. Third peak forms 18.30 so I exit. this proves a bad choice as the market than rallies. perhaps this third peak was not one!
No other trades that day.
Ended day up +21
TraderTony
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Nice going Orky and welcome aboard.
11:15 1) S 10574. Moves down well. Takes out LOD at second attempt. I'm looking for +15 at the pivot. Then ugly reversal at 564. Grrrr. Coming right back.
11:24 EXIT: +1. I thought I'd nailed a really good one there and was counting my 15 points prematurely. Serves me right and once again I'm out right at the apex of the pull back. Yep - down it goes again. Sloppy.
11:50 2) L 10580. Up. But slowly. Looking for +19 to 600 level this time. But looks like it may be reversing at R1 (593). And down again. I'll hold for a bit longer this time, but I figure I've picked the wrong day to attempt longer holds.
12:18 EXIT: +9 as it stalls at 590 with potential ND type reversal forming back to downside.
Soooooooooo slow.
12:57 3) L 10288. Possible pullback up from 100 ema but so little action here. Going nowhere slowly. Will hold in absence of clear exit for target of +11 at 10599 again.
13:24 EXIT: +11. 27 minutes!!! Un-real. No doubt it will explode up now. Yep - once it started moving I should have held. Too cautious again after the earlier failures to follow through. And look at it run. Beautiful.
I have vistors now so have to take some time off (this Christmas lark really is starting to get in the way of my trading!!). Hopefully back before the close.
Some hope and guess who missed all the action again. More lovely Xmas £££ for those who stayed long through to the close.
+21 from 3
+18 for the day after commissions
+121 for December so far after commissions (9 days of trading)
11:15 1) S 10574. Moves down well. Takes out LOD at second attempt. I'm looking for +15 at the pivot. Then ugly reversal at 564. Grrrr. Coming right back.
11:24 EXIT: +1. I thought I'd nailed a really good one there and was counting my 15 points prematurely. Serves me right and once again I'm out right at the apex of the pull back. Yep - down it goes again. Sloppy.
11:50 2) L 10580. Up. But slowly. Looking for +19 to 600 level this time. But looks like it may be reversing at R1 (593). And down again. I'll hold for a bit longer this time, but I figure I've picked the wrong day to attempt longer holds.
12:18 EXIT: +9 as it stalls at 590 with potential ND type reversal forming back to downside.
Soooooooooo slow.
12:57 3) L 10288. Possible pullback up from 100 ema but so little action here. Going nowhere slowly. Will hold in absence of clear exit for target of +11 at 10599 again.
13:24 EXIT: +11. 27 minutes!!! Un-real. No doubt it will explode up now. Yep - once it started moving I should have held. Too cautious again after the earlier failures to follow through. And look at it run. Beautiful.
I have vistors now so have to take some time off (this Christmas lark really is starting to get in the way of my trading!!). Hopefully back before the close.
Some hope and guess who missed all the action again. More lovely Xmas £££ for those who stayed long through to the close.
+21 from 3
+18 for the day after commissions
+121 for December so far after commissions (9 days of trading)
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Daily Dow / NDX/ SPX
tony,
been reading your (and others) posts for a few weeks, the ups and downs, gains and losses. thought I'd tell you about my experiences over the last few days. some funny, some not so funny.
please bear in mind that my system is totally different to yours.
Friday, had to close out early -130, baby crying, wife dealing with other baby. but had nearly reached my stop loss any way. Came back down stairs to find that if baby had cried two mins later would have been able to close out at -50. ah well.
Check account over weekend, surprised and more than a little concerned to see an open short on the mini DOW. Can't do anything about it as (I think) as customer service aren't back in until 7.30 CST Monday. Put it down to some error.
Call them up Monday to check, sure enough it is still there. a MARCH short too which is unusual as was only trading DEC, but do remember a small problem on Friday in selecting the contract month.................maybe it was my error! for a fleeting moment toy with the idea on retail sales being poor, but then decide that is not within my trading plan so call them up and close it, -85. put down to experience. Would I have done the same had i been up? I like to think so.
Monday evening, looked at the DOW, going up, NDX pattern looks better to me, but for some INEXPLICABLE reason decide that the DOW has spiked to 2.00pm / 7.00pm and is due for a reversal so go short. I have to say that this is TOTALLY the opposite of what I normally do. The normal course of action would be to trade the NDX, as this was the best pattern, the trend being up.
Got stopped out as market continued to rise. ok, fair enough. then BY MISTAKE, instead of closing the position I put another short on. Decide to let it ride for a short time "just to see" (has to be said at this point that i am no longer the 3 c's. and trading a bit on hope rather than experience) of course it coninued to rise, so closed.
All the while the SPX became the best pattern, but did nothing about it. All in all, lost another 305.
Lessons to be learnt for me? (we've heard them all before)
1) Don't be over confident and second guess the system (what makes it worse folks, is that it is a simple, simple system)
2) Never trade against the trend
3) I felt a bit robbed after the -130 and -85 as they could have been prevented and / or minimised, so mentally I didn't feel A1. The error short made this 10x worse and pyscologically i had lost my concentration. - therefore, if you don't feel right do nothing.
4) Most important, don't beat yourself up about it. Forgive yourslef, learn from it, then let it go.
The funny (and interesting thing about it is how a few small mistakes snowballed into something bigger in a very short space of time.
Good luck with it.
D
tony,
been reading your (and others) posts for a few weeks, the ups and downs, gains and losses. thought I'd tell you about my experiences over the last few days. some funny, some not so funny.
please bear in mind that my system is totally different to yours.
Friday, had to close out early -130, baby crying, wife dealing with other baby. but had nearly reached my stop loss any way. Came back down stairs to find that if baby had cried two mins later would have been able to close out at -50. ah well.
Check account over weekend, surprised and more than a little concerned to see an open short on the mini DOW. Can't do anything about it as (I think) as customer service aren't back in until 7.30 CST Monday. Put it down to some error.
Call them up Monday to check, sure enough it is still there. a MARCH short too which is unusual as was only trading DEC, but do remember a small problem on Friday in selecting the contract month.................maybe it was my error! for a fleeting moment toy with the idea on retail sales being poor, but then decide that is not within my trading plan so call them up and close it, -85. put down to experience. Would I have done the same had i been up? I like to think so.
Monday evening, looked at the DOW, going up, NDX pattern looks better to me, but for some INEXPLICABLE reason decide that the DOW has spiked to 2.00pm / 7.00pm and is due for a reversal so go short. I have to say that this is TOTALLY the opposite of what I normally do. The normal course of action would be to trade the NDX, as this was the best pattern, the trend being up.
Got stopped out as market continued to rise. ok, fair enough. then BY MISTAKE, instead of closing the position I put another short on. Decide to let it ride for a short time "just to see" (has to be said at this point that i am no longer the 3 c's. and trading a bit on hope rather than experience) of course it coninued to rise, so closed.
All the while the SPX became the best pattern, but did nothing about it. All in all, lost another 305.
Lessons to be learnt for me? (we've heard them all before)
1) Don't be over confident and second guess the system (what makes it worse folks, is that it is a simple, simple system)
2) Never trade against the trend
3) I felt a bit robbed after the -130 and -85 as they could have been prevented and / or minimised, so mentally I didn't feel A1. The error short made this 10x worse and pyscologically i had lost my concentration. - therefore, if you don't feel right do nothing.
4) Most important, don't beat yourself up about it. Forgive yourslef, learn from it, then let it go.
The funny (and interesting thing about it is how a few small mistakes snowballed into something bigger in a very short space of time.
Good luck with it.
D
Orky and DIN: - Welcome to the thread and thanks for joining us. It is good to see more people posting their trades / experiences. I am very grateful to Trader Tony for encouraging me to do this - the feedback on my posts has been very helpful.
I may not get much time to watch the markets this week - hence no posts. But I will be 'dropping in' here each evening to see how others are doing.
Best of luck to all.... debs
I may not get much time to watch the markets this week - hence no posts. But I will be 'dropping in' here each evening to see how others are doing.
Best of luck to all.... debs
probably i sounded like i had a long term short, but thats not true. at this time taking a long term position is quite a bad idea. we are in a consolidation and day trading with heavy long and short positions is safe and profitable.tradesmart said:Plainly news to you – does “target at least 10300 and there will be more for Christmas” ring a bell…….?!……..
if dow looks shakey i might go short with a target of 10500, then long for a good bounce
roguetrader
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DIN, ouch, feel for ya mate.DIN said:
One immediate piece of advice mate, do not daytrade in this sort of envoironment. If you can't change the envoironment, modify your style for longer holding periods. Distractions like this will cause you problems and will ultimately damage your confidence
TraderTony
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DIN - nice post but painful. I know all too well about the baby thing. Keep posting!
TraderTony
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Fed announcement due at 14:15 so it could lack direction until after then.
9:56 1) L 10638. Looking for move up off 100 ema after higher low but no clear direction yet. Creeping up quite nicely. Trailing for close under 7ema in an attempt to run trades a little better.
10:03 EXIT: +14. Nice start - I got most of the move for once by the looks of it.
10:32 2) L 10638. Move up off 100 ema but very late entry makes me extremely nervous. Keeps upwards. Then bounces down of earlier HOD for posible double top. Ugly. Stop to b/e +1.
10:37 EXIT: +1.
11:25 3) S 10640. Looking for another push down. Nope.
11:25 EXIT: -2.
Yawnsville.
And double yawnsville. I'll wait now at least until after Fed Report before any more trades.
Arghh. I twitched over the mouse at close of the 14:51 bar to go long at 10661 but declined with the continued absence of any clear direction. It was a perfect entry for me though and of course it ran 40 points. I seem destined to miss every single decent run this month. I haven't caught one yet. It is getting a bit frustrating but at least my over caution means I am avoiding too many losses so far. It's tough though when there's only one decent move in the whole day and that is all over in about 10 minutes.
I couldn't spot anything else before 15:30, so...
+13 from 3
+10 for the day after commissions
+131 for december so far after commissions (10 days of trading)
9:56 1) L 10638. Looking for move up off 100 ema after higher low but no clear direction yet. Creeping up quite nicely. Trailing for close under 7ema in an attempt to run trades a little better.
10:03 EXIT: +14. Nice start - I got most of the move for once by the looks of it.
10:32 2) L 10638. Move up off 100 ema but very late entry makes me extremely nervous. Keeps upwards. Then bounces down of earlier HOD for posible double top. Ugly. Stop to b/e +1.
10:37 EXIT: +1.
11:25 3) S 10640. Looking for another push down. Nope.
11:25 EXIT: -2.
Yawnsville.
And double yawnsville. I'll wait now at least until after Fed Report before any more trades.
Arghh. I twitched over the mouse at close of the 14:51 bar to go long at 10661 but declined with the continued absence of any clear direction. It was a perfect entry for me though and of course it ran 40 points. I seem destined to miss every single decent run this month. I haven't caught one yet. It is getting a bit frustrating but at least my over caution means I am avoiding too many losses so far. It's tough though when there's only one decent move in the whole day and that is all over in about 10 minutes.
I couldn't spot anything else before 15:30, so...
+13 from 3
+10 for the day after commissions
+131 for december so far after commissions (10 days of trading)
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tradesmart
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TTony - A solution might be to take a trade entry - get a breakeven stop in as soon as you can and maybe set a 50/75 point limit, then switch the monitor off for an hour or two.....
risk - minimal / reward - could be plenty......!
Obviously try and anticipate likely 'big move' days/situations - as you well know on 'consolidation' days often the best you can do is scalp 10-20 points here and there....
HTH
I've never been one to gamble on a news release, but let's take a look at tonight.... A double bottom on 32 with the SR Switches could have prompted a long.... OK all well and good but what about that gap down from 664? Absolutely no chance of an exit on SB.So do you exit at the first sniff of a reversal at 655 or 660ish? If you hold through the drop, you run the very real risk of "rabbit in the headlight " syndrome. How do you know it's not going to drop another 50 points or 100 points, ever waiting in hope for that "must be" reversal.......No, not for me. Been there , done that and learnt the hard way.No matter how good the setup looks, there is real hidden danger for all but the luckiest ( or most stupid/reckless). There is a far better opportunity as the triangle unfolds...for a much safer 40 odd points.
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market opened with a few possible entries after the ema breached at 14.40 and 14.45 but did enter as it was still first hour of trade and they did not have any conviction.
15.30 looks like third peak in ND formed but they are not that uniform.
Over the next 40 min another, much clearer 3 peak ND form and I go short at the 100e ma breach plus pullback ast 10635.
Market then moves between approx. 5 point gain and -13 points. at 16.25 there was an exit with a 15 point loss but did not atke it. This proved costly as when the fed made their announcement market became very volatile and I ended up down -47 points.
A few questions for everbody. Is it wise to enter a trade in the first hour of trade and should one await important news before entering again.
Bad day overall
15.30 looks like third peak in ND formed but they are not that uniform.
Over the next 40 min another, much clearer 3 peak ND form and I go short at the 100e ma breach plus pullback ast 10635.
Market then moves between approx. 5 point gain and -13 points. at 16.25 there was an exit with a 15 point loss but did not atke it. This proved costly as when the fed made their announcement market became very volatile and I ended up down -47 points.
A few questions for everbody. Is it wise to enter a trade in the first hour of trade and should one await important news before entering again.
Bad day overall
roguetrader
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Hi orky, it has been my experience that unless you enjoy the thrill of the gamble, and possibly the wild rollercoaster ride associated with major news events it is best to get flat b4 they occur so you can react to the aftermath. As for first, and indeed last hours of regular session I would say that is something of personal choice, watch the action and see if you like it.
I should point out that I trade stocks intraday, not futures, but as regards news events I see little difference. First and last hour of the market some futures traders may see it differently, but in answering your questions I have based my judgement on my management of the index trackers QQQQ, DIA, and SPY which exposes me to similar movements as the futures.
I should point out that I trade stocks intraday, not futures, but as regards news events I see little difference. First and last hour of the market some futures traders may see it differently, but in answering your questions I have based my judgement on my management of the index trackers QQQQ, DIA, and SPY which exposes me to similar movements as the futures.
