interesting you think it's going to be significant bottom. My weekly
charts are nearly ready to roll over however need at least two consecutive weeks to close down first. The dow left a gap at the top and spx fell just short of closing it's gap so could be a bottom in the making ready for another push up
charts are nearly ready to roll over however need at least two consecutive weeks to close down first. The dow left a gap at the top and spx fell just short of closing it's gap so could be a bottom in the making ready for another push up
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TS, CM, I would agree with anmolway in that I do not see any PD's in either DOW 1min or 10min chart. Only in YM H4 1min , i see a S/R switch in 1min chart.
Clearly current bounce is an impressive recovery but momentum already seems to be stalling and we are still way off the 100EMA.
Ok, lt trend is probably still up but why would the 368 low be a meaningful low? I don't see the indicators saying so?
TS your long is at 375 is very impressive; can you share with us what indicators gave confidence that this was a bottom? (On my 1min chart, I only swa reverse above 380.)
Thanks
Clearly current bounce is an impressive recovery but momentum already seems to be stalling and we are still way off the 100EMA.
Ok, lt trend is probably still up but why would the 368 low be a meaningful low? I don't see the indicators saying so?
TS your long is at 375 is very impressive; can you share with us what indicators gave confidence that this was a bottom? (On my 1min chart, I only swa reverse above 380.)
Thanks
bgold...if you /area wave counter you might say that wave A
equalling wave C was the reason for it stopping there.
edit just noticed big volume spikes as well at the low .
but dont think anything would get you in at the low other than
predefinded entry level or anticipation.
equalling wave C was the reason for it stopping there.
edit just noticed big volume spikes as well at the low .
but dont think anything would get you in at the low other than
predefinded entry level or anticipation.
BG - first, there was a low of around 380 on the 4th and a sharp bounce up from there.
Secondly, RSI dropped to abt 6 0 how much lower was it gonna go? The PD is no clearcut but close enuff under the circumstances - unless CM tells me I'm wrong of course
Secondly, RSI dropped to abt 6 0 how much lower was it gonna go? The PD is no clearcut but close enuff under the circumstances - unless CM tells me I'm wrong of course
tradesmart
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BG - my long signal was mainly the 'V' (spike!) reversal and the fact that it was down 140 from the session highs - and CM's bottom call of course - about the support level of the descent on 2/1/04.
with these 'V' bottoms, the reversal is very swift, so speed is of the essence to get in at a favourable level.....
with these 'V' bottoms, the reversal is very swift, so speed is of the essence to get in at a favourable level.....
One Eyed Shark
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anmol
To qualify as an Adam & Eve reversal pattern
The first high/low is is a sharp point (Adam) followed by a second more rounded high/low (Eve).
My interpretation is that the first low on the 10 min chart could qualify as Adam, the second needs to have developed over a little more time to qualify it as Eve.
These patterns also need to be quite volatile , in the scheme of todays market this one seems a little weak.
To qualify as an Adam & Eve reversal pattern
The first high/low is is a sharp point (Adam) followed by a second more rounded high/low (Eve).
My interpretation is that the first low on the 10 min chart could qualify as Adam, the second needs to have developed over a little more time to qualify it as Eve.
These patterns also need to be quite volatile , in the scheme of todays market this one seems a little weak.
tradesmart
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anmolway - it really is a matter of getting in as fast as you can as soon as you've identified (suspected?!) the pattern - if you're trading SB, you have an advantage as their bias will usually take the price down lower than the cash - 2nd 1 min bar is ok - if you can catch it......
It's all a question of experience, recognition and expectation. Experience tells me that the Dow travels between limits in channels on the 10 min chart.Last night I speculated on the likely new channel ( experience). Recognising that there had been 4 slope changes tells me that there is little more in the way of down to come.Certainly nothing dramatic. That eases the decision to go long, minimising the potential drawdown.Expectation that the rot would stop at the "projected" channel support line. I said this was at 380. OK It went to 368. That was the low. The close on that 10 min period was 386.
J40. The PD that you refer to is not correct in its form. Whilst I have seen variations in ND tops, PD bottoms are more exact( except at the open where they can seem to be never ending). The price trend line is taken on support, and always slopes down.The troughs are pretty well aligned. The RSI slope is gently trending upwards, allowing room for the price to reverse and break.
TS called it correctly by recognising the probable "V" bottom. The risk is minimal as reasoned above.
Hooya I'm not saying it's a "significant bottom, just a channel support reversal. This new down channel may well continue and we should not be looking for anything other than a new down trend at this time. On this thread, we're only interested in yesterday's action so that we can do our homework ( finding S/R levels) and today's tradable action. Tomorrow's action is for someone else to predict.
So far today, the failure to recover 432 is bad news. Failure to recover to 450 is worse, in that the wave count down is now not violated, leaving room for more down.
I have said many times before, the Divergences I have shown, are only valid for getting out at a tops or bottoms- again intraday. They DO NOT mean you can reverse your trade.
Trading the Dow, for a newcomer , is no different to trading anything else. If you jump in, make sure you check your parachute! I admit, intuition plays its part too. The chart is not going to jump out at you and say "Buy Me". Or is it? :cheesy:
J40. The PD that you refer to is not correct in its form. Whilst I have seen variations in ND tops, PD bottoms are more exact( except at the open where they can seem to be never ending). The price trend line is taken on support, and always slopes down.The troughs are pretty well aligned. The RSI slope is gently trending upwards, allowing room for the price to reverse and break.
TS called it correctly by recognising the probable "V" bottom. The risk is minimal as reasoned above.
Hooya I'm not saying it's a "significant bottom, just a channel support reversal. This new down channel may well continue and we should not be looking for anything other than a new down trend at this time. On this thread, we're only interested in yesterday's action so that we can do our homework ( finding S/R levels) and today's tradable action. Tomorrow's action is for someone else to predict.
So far today, the failure to recover 432 is bad news. Failure to recover to 450 is worse, in that the wave count down is now not violated, leaving room for more down.
I have said many times before, the Divergences I have shown, are only valid for getting out at a tops or bottoms- again intraday. They DO NOT mean you can reverse your trade.
Trading the Dow, for a newcomer , is no different to trading anything else. If you jump in, make sure you check your parachute! I admit, intuition plays its part too. The chart is not going to jump out at you and say "Buy Me". Or is it? :cheesy:
A quick check to see where the target is if the prior action is a disguised Bear Flag. I make it 310. That would be lower than 10 min channel support.
Just another point for the new arrivals about PD's. A secon check is to look at ES Vol. If you get 3 lower vol spikes on the 3 lower troughs, then that is confirmation of the bottom.Right now, that rule has been violated on ES Vol, so it's not confirming the bottom here. A long here is therefore a gamble.
Just another point for the new arrivals about PD's. A secon check is to look at ES Vol. If you get 3 lower vol spikes on the 3 lower troughs, then that is confirmation of the bottom.Right now, that rule has been violated on ES Vol, so it's not confirming the bottom here. A long here is therefore a gamble.
