tradesmart
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Glory might be in short supply at 732 CM – I’ve just noticed an OPEC meeting on the calendar for Friday…… 
Still, they might say “we’re doubling production, therefore oil will fall to $20/b..”… :cheesy:
Unlikely though….
Despite the short lived foray up towards 10650 on Friday, I reckon that the 90 point triangle is still intact, but in elongated form now; and after two inside days following the massive 162 point rise on Wednesday – decision time is nigh…
The fact that the triangles' upside 690 target was not met is slightly negative imho and the sharp end of the triangle is showing a small bear flag and RSI/CCI are developing expanding triangles which could signal some degree of retracement
CM’s channel has held up well, and I’ve projected a lower rising parallel line from the 10435 low which coincidently gives notional support at around 10500 – c.90 points below the triangle lower break point….
But it's all down to 'trade the break' imho - the bulls could spring a surprise yet....
Still, they might say “we’re doubling production, therefore oil will fall to $20/b..”… :cheesy:
Unlikely though….
Despite the short lived foray up towards 10650 on Friday, I reckon that the 90 point triangle is still intact, but in elongated form now; and after two inside days following the massive 162 point rise on Wednesday – decision time is nigh…
The fact that the triangles' upside 690 target was not met is slightly negative imho and the sharp end of the triangle is showing a small bear flag and RSI/CCI are developing expanding triangles which could signal some degree of retracement
CM’s channel has held up well, and I’ve projected a lower rising parallel line from the 10435 low which coincidently gives notional support at around 10500 – c.90 points below the triangle lower break point….
But it's all down to 'trade the break' imho - the bulls could spring a surprise yet....
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TraderTony
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Monday 6th December 2004
An awful, awful day for me. I couldn't get anything to work and made a complete pig's ear of every trade except the very last (and that was far too late for any consolation)...
9:46 1) S 10550.Looking for another push down. Going well. Then bouncing quite hard from around 440 level.
9:50 EXIT: +4. Bad exit - it was over +10 at one stage and I got out right at the peak of the move back.
10:14 2) S 10540. This feels dangerous.
10:14. EXIT: -10. Horrible - the instant reversal. That's blown it. This could be a double bottom with PD for a move back up.
10:40 3) S 10559. Looking for another pullback right off the 100 ema. Down nicely but just like the first trade - no follow through once it gets to +10 or so.
10:51 EXIT: +4. Frustrating. Could have had 10 again and instead got out at the worst point of the retracement. Bad exit for the second time (and that doesn't include the 10 point loss). Making a mess of this.
13:30 Missed the nice PD to the upside which sent it well on its way back to new HOD.
14:01 4) S 10569. Looking for a CT move on the ND from the possible reversal bar. Agonising. Finally goes down but stalls at 65. And again. And again. Then explodes up. I should have scratched. Stupid.
14:24 EXIT: -10. What am I doing? So many chances to exit that when it failed to follow through but I just sat there like the proverbial rabbit caught in the headlights. Sickening.
14:53 5) L 10571. For a pullback off 100 ema. Moving nicely to over +10. Then straight back again. This is unreal. Absolutely no follow through to any of my trades.
15:05 EXIT: +1. What a joke.
15:34 6) L 10558. For 10 on a CT PD.
15:43 EXIT: +10. At last.
-1 from 6
-7 for the day after commissions
+44 for December so far after commissions (4 days of trading)
An awful, awful day for me. I couldn't get anything to work and made a complete pig's ear of every trade except the very last (and that was far too late for any consolation)...
9:46 1) S 10550.Looking for another push down. Going well. Then bouncing quite hard from around 440 level.
9:50 EXIT: +4. Bad exit - it was over +10 at one stage and I got out right at the peak of the move back.
10:14 2) S 10540. This feels dangerous.
10:14. EXIT: -10. Horrible - the instant reversal. That's blown it. This could be a double bottom with PD for a move back up.
10:40 3) S 10559. Looking for another pullback right off the 100 ema. Down nicely but just like the first trade - no follow through once it gets to +10 or so.
10:51 EXIT: +4. Frustrating. Could have had 10 again and instead got out at the worst point of the retracement. Bad exit for the second time (and that doesn't include the 10 point loss). Making a mess of this.
13:30 Missed the nice PD to the upside which sent it well on its way back to new HOD.
14:01 4) S 10569. Looking for a CT move on the ND from the possible reversal bar. Agonising. Finally goes down but stalls at 65. And again. And again. Then explodes up. I should have scratched. Stupid.
14:24 EXIT: -10. What am I doing? So many chances to exit that when it failed to follow through but I just sat there like the proverbial rabbit caught in the headlights. Sickening.
14:53 5) L 10571. For a pullback off 100 ema. Moving nicely to over +10. Then straight back again. This is unreal. Absolutely no follow through to any of my trades.
15:05 EXIT: +1. What a joke.
15:34 6) L 10558. For 10 on a CT PD.
15:43 EXIT: +10. At last.
-1 from 6
-7 for the day after commissions
+44 for December so far after commissions (4 days of trading)
Attachments
Couldn't trade early today due to work commitments but got home about 18:00 and saw what looked like a bear flag forming so I went short on the bounce off 64 at "A".
Got a bit hairy when 64 briefly went but the divergence convinced me to stay in. I've decided to hold overnight, something I don't do very often but with Futs just about to close at about 547 I'm hoping for a nice gap down tomorrow, maybe straight down to test 500.
Looked like a tricky day although bounces off 32 and 64 with some divergences gave some opportunities to snatch a few points here and there.
Justyn.
Got a bit hairy when 64 briefly went but the divergence convinced me to stay in. I've decided to hold overnight, something I don't do very often but with Futs just about to close at about 547 I'm hoping for a nice gap down tomorrow, maybe straight down to test 500.
Looked like a tricky day although bounces off 32 and 64 with some divergences gave some opportunities to snatch a few points here and there.
Justyn.
Attachments
MON 6 DEC
10:40 ENTER short at 10551 (ema-10557, sl-10577). Entered on PB to ema.
12:08 - dow crosses ema at 10542, move sl to 10562.
12:41 EXIT at 10565 - loss of 14pts
13:09 ENTER short at 10544 (ema-10548, sl-10568). Entered on PB to ema.
14:24 EXIT at 10572 for a loss of 28pts.
Two trades -14-28= -42pts (excl costs).
Debs
10:40 ENTER short at 10551 (ema-10557, sl-10577). Entered on PB to ema.
12:08 - dow crosses ema at 10542, move sl to 10562.
12:41 EXIT at 10565 - loss of 14pts
13:09 ENTER short at 10544 (ema-10548, sl-10568). Entered on PB to ema.
14:24 EXIT at 10572 for a loss of 28pts.
Two trades -14-28= -42pts (excl costs).
Debs
TraderTony
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debs said:
Debs - I get your first entry and can see why you held by CM's rules. However, I'm not quite so sure about the second. By that stage you had been stopped out of a short at ema +20 (I assume) so should you not have been looking for longs or standing aside until a clear trend was established? I don't get any sense of a downtrend by 13:09.
TraderTony said:
Hi Tony,
Thanks for your comment. I am guilty of unthinkingly just entering on any PB to the ema.
You are absolutely right - even tho there was a PB to the ema at 13:09, there was no clear trend, if anything it was probably biased to the upside. I can see this was supported by the PD on CMs chart. I should have been looking at the bigger picture.
But I am also wondering now if I should have entered the first entry. It had fallen quickly on the open and I just entered on the first PB to the ema. But if I had noticed the triangle pattern with the 'breakout' (on CMs chart), I wonder if I would have (or should have) still taken the trade.
Debs
TraderTony
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debs said:
Well, that might depend on what your rules are
. To me, it was a clear pull back in a down trend, so worth a shot. I'm sure you could talk yourself out of every trade if you tried hard enough, but I do think you need to ask yourself if the market is moving up or down before looking for a continuation. Of course, that's not to say the trend may end as soon as you enter, but that's trading.TraderTony said:Well, that might depend on what your rules are
Yep - I'm very good at seeing why things won't work! This is not a habit that I am proud of and it needs to be broken if I want to make any progress. As usual, your comments have been extemely helpful. I am learning more each day.
Many thnx, Debs
1)Short 16.04 532 exit 16.11 545 -13 why? Got distracted drawing lines & looking too hard. Also ignored underlying PD (I think) if you draw a line through the
big peak ON RSI. And i think its there in CCI
2)Short 17.34 551 Late on entry after ND on RSI. Felt impatient,17.55 exit for +4 then watched it
run & run. Tried to place order on blip , but wrong parameter selected on s/ware.NO ORDER.
Watch it run & run.
...it gets better.
3)Hit wrong button on s/ware, now i am short. Exit for -3
4)Long 19.00 488 on PD on both RSI & CCI for reversal. My timing early by 14 mins. Stopped out 469 -19
Total -31 incl. fees
I'll get me coat then.. :cheesy:
Nice calls by CM & TS.. By the way do u both use IB & Sierra for your setup.?
big peak ON RSI. And i think its there in CCI
2)Short 17.34 551 Late on entry after ND on RSI. Felt impatient,17.55 exit for +4 then watched it
run & run. Tried to place order on blip , but wrong parameter selected on s/ware.NO ORDER.
Watch it run & run.
...it gets better.
3)Hit wrong button on s/ware, now i am short. Exit for -3
4)Long 19.00 488 on PD on both RSI & CCI for reversal. My timing early by 14 mins. Stopped out 469 -19
Total -31 incl. fees
I'll get me coat then.. :cheesy:
Nice calls by CM & TS.. By the way do u both use IB & Sierra for your setup.?
TraderTony
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Tuesday 7th December 2004
Excuse me while I go and get a baseball bat to beat myself over the head with. And then pass me a very large loser cap. Two extremely disappointing days for me so far this week, for completely different reasons. I just cannot afford to waste a day like today when there was so much opportunity to profit by following my own rules...
Missed the first 90 minutes at son's school play.
Dum de dum - really struggling to find an entry here. Big PD on 10m suggesting it's going to move back to the upside. And sure enough it is moving up but too erratic for my liking at the moment (or am I making excuses?).
Then missed the entire move down too despite some decent potential entries (12:45, 12:51 and 13:00). All would have been very good winners - the last one massive. Very very very frustrating. I guess we had spent so long in a 40 something point range I was just too cautious about anything resembling a breakout. But that was utterly stupid as these entries all met my criteria, even in a tight range.
So over 100 points missed. Lovely. And the two quick CT moves for 10 each on the divergences off the lows. Not a happy camper.
Then no action again. Grrrrr!
14:24 1) S 10464. Continuation but late in day and needs to take out LOD. Just going for 10 to salvage something for the day.
14:26. EXIT +10. Thank goodness for that. Probably out too soon but I'll take anything here and now.
15:46 2) L10455. Stupidly late in the day but a beautiful PD that I couldn't resist. Not going to push luck though.
14:47 EXIT: +5. In case it fails at swing high. Too soon - could have had my ten.
So that's it for one of the best days I can remember:
+15 from 2
+13 for the day after costs
+57 for December so far after commissions (5 days of trading)
Excuse me while I go and get a baseball bat to beat myself over the head with. And then pass me a very large loser cap. Two extremely disappointing days for me so far this week, for completely different reasons. I just cannot afford to waste a day like today when there was so much opportunity to profit by following my own rules...
Missed the first 90 minutes at son's school play.
Dum de dum - really struggling to find an entry here. Big PD on 10m suggesting it's going to move back to the upside. And sure enough it is moving up but too erratic for my liking at the moment (or am I making excuses?).
Then missed the entire move down too despite some decent potential entries (12:45, 12:51 and 13:00). All would have been very good winners - the last one massive. Very very very frustrating. I guess we had spent so long in a 40 something point range I was just too cautious about anything resembling a breakout. But that was utterly stupid as these entries all met my criteria, even in a tight range.
So over 100 points missed. Lovely. And the two quick CT moves for 10 each on the divergences off the lows. Not a happy camper.
Then no action again. Grrrrr!
14:24 1) S 10464. Continuation but late in day and needs to take out LOD. Just going for 10 to salvage something for the day.
14:26. EXIT +10. Thank goodness for that. Probably out too soon but I'll take anything here and now.
15:46 2) L10455. Stupidly late in the day but a beautiful PD that I couldn't resist. Not going to push luck though.
14:47 EXIT: +5. In case it fails at swing high. Too soon - could have had my ten.
So that's it for one of the best days I can remember:
+15 from 2
+13 for the day after costs
+57 for December so far after commissions (5 days of trading)
Attachments
Gollum & TT: Thank you very much for your posts. It is nice to know that I'm not the only one who has disappointing days. I try to think of the lost points as the price I have to pay for my education.
TUE 7 DEC
11:02 A possible short entry here – Dow has pulled back to ema and it looks like a downtrend is forming. But this lower high on the Dow is not confirmed by a lower peak on RSI, so I decide to wait.
11:40 ENTER long at 10549 (ema-10544, sl-10524). Thank goodness I waited before. Now there seems to be an upward trend forming. I entered on the PB to ema which coincides with the Dow touching an upward sloping support line that I drew earlier.
12:18 EXIT at 10564 for a gain of 15 pts. This is tricky. A nice upward channel has formed and the Dow is well above the ema. But the 32’ and ‘64’ levels have proven very reliable lately and I don’t know if we will push thru the 564. I decided to take the points.
One trade 15 pts (excl costs). It was a good exit on this trade, but I couldn’t seem to find an entry point to benefit from the big move down.
Debs
TUE 7 DEC
11:02 A possible short entry here – Dow has pulled back to ema and it looks like a downtrend is forming. But this lower high on the Dow is not confirmed by a lower peak on RSI, so I decide to wait.
11:40 ENTER long at 10549 (ema-10544, sl-10524). Thank goodness I waited before. Now there seems to be an upward trend forming. I entered on the PB to ema which coincides with the Dow touching an upward sloping support line that I drew earlier.
12:18 EXIT at 10564 for a gain of 15 pts. This is tricky. A nice upward channel has formed and the Dow is well above the ema. But the 32’ and ‘64’ levels have proven very reliable lately and I don’t know if we will push thru the 564. I decided to take the points.
One trade 15 pts (excl costs). It was a good exit on this trade, but I couldn’t seem to find an entry point to benefit from the big move down.
Debs
