Dow Intraday charts 06/10 - 10/10

ChartMan

Legendary member
Two scenarios possible:-
1: We've dropped out of the channel.
2: We've picked up the single touch lower support line.
Too early to say anything else really.
 

Attachments

  • dow 06-10-03 10.gif
    dow 06-10-03 10.gif
    24.9 KB · Views: 825

reddragon

Member
Hi CM,
Does the fact that today's low of 9562 - which is wthin
2 pts of the magic 64 have any possible signifigance !!!.
Yours,
Reddragon.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
Soup de Jour...
1: support found at 9564.
2: Note the slope change up wards before the triangle break...
3: The support test after it breaks.
4: Price goes straight through 9600- prior resistance.
5: Triangle target not quite met, followed by bull flag. RSI strength ratio is 1:1
6: Target for bull flag is 9635, not met.
7: 3 pk ND top resolved before T1 met.
8: The inverse"W" top ( ok, "M") has a target of 9644.
Something I need to investigate... Sometimes an ND top is followed by a continuation... Does the support line break of the ND top formation NORMALLY signal a short????
Here's what I see. IF an ND top is going to be a reversal,
a) it's immediate
b) it's strong
c) the break through support is convincing.
Otherwise, it takes a while to continue on up. Therefore I conclude that it would be safe to execute a reversal at an ND top, with the proviso that a losing trade will be small and controllable, against the reward of a rapid drop.
 

Attachments

  • dow 06-10-03 1.gif
    dow 06-10-03 1.gif
    23.6 KB · Views: 819

china white

Established member
3rd knock at 1038

U may recall I talked about a C&H forming last week. IMO we have just completed forming a bigger C&H with all the hallmarks of a major B/O right round the corner (if u dont like C&H as a TA tool, u may just call it a developed bull flag :cheesy: ). If 1038 is taken out, I'd expect a "measured move" to 1068.

Of coz the alternative is a triple top at 1038. As u can c, RSI 60 min is forming a ND, however if u take a butcher's at the next post, u'll c why I reckon this alternative is much less likely.
 

Attachments

  • cme-es03z- 60 minute.jpg
    cme-es03z- 60 minute.jpg
    136.1 KB · Views: 762

china white

Established member
bullish price action IMO

here is why I believe the bulls r favourites here. the pullback at 13;45 failed to touch the lower bound of the channel, delivered a R/S switch on RSI 5 min, which was fully confirmed by ADX cross 20 min later. Perhaps safest point to go long. Quite expectedly, a B/O of the channel later, due re-test of the upper bound (nice point to double your longs) and a pop to "magic" 1038 :D

However, this is earnings season, and as u perhaps understand, thell b loads of good news and just as many misses... We'll c what spin the Street will put on it. Either way, I expect a 30-point move within days.
 

Attachments

  • cme-es03z- 5 minute.jpg
    cme-es03z- 5 minute.jpg
    138.8 KB · Views: 741

china white

Established member
btw, chose 60% on my QCharts images, but they seem 2 b just as big when pasted..... :( my apologies. Any idea where I am cocking them up? :)
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
I concur , China. A Cup and Handle, with a recent bul flag breakout on the 10 min chart, confirmed by the last low failing to make support.Target? Let's say around 9900. Early next week timescale. That's presuming it delivers, of course. Could just as easily be a Trippe top with that sniff of ND creeping in on RSI.
 

Attachments

  • dow 07-10-03 10.gif
    dow 07-10-03 10.gif
    30.4 KB · Views: 707

ChartMan

Legendary member
Not a lot to show for today.Open support at magic 32, a failed Bear flag and two ND tops. The first went into instant drop, as discussed last night. The second is clearly going to continue... having closed at HOD ( Famous last words). But then again, from time to time, I get excited and stick my neck on the block. Not that I take any notice of my own ramblings. Of more interest to me is that someone else ( China) sees what I see, even if it is on ES. He says 30 point move soon, which = a DOW move of 270 ish. I differ in that I read it as a tad less at 245 points . Either way , that's some nice up move on the cards. I just hope it doesn't happen on Friday.... We have seen some big moves in the past on the last day of the week. And that will scotch my DOW comp. entry. :cheesy:
 

Attachments

  • dow 07-10-03 1.gif
    dow 07-10-03 1.gif
    20.8 KB · Views: 721

china white

Established member
CM - just crossed my mind - 1068 is not a special number at all (apart from William the Conqueror's battle of 1066 :) ), however, Dow @ 9900 will trigger testing 10K imo.... a really interesting point here! :)
 

fazalv

Active member
Good work China!

Cm, between 19.50-20.10 I sensed a whiff of 3ND developing and thus exited my long.
Any clues in RSI or support/resistance which would have prevented this cock up!!!
 

Pete Hannan

Junior member
Chartman,
I've started following your analysis just recently, and I've downloaded your trading system.
Last night I watched the price rise above the 100 EMA at 18:34, pull back to test the line and then move up again. I entered a long at 18:40 which proved disastrous. Did I overestimate the significance of the breakout - well obviously I did - I was just wondering if you had a rule of thumb for the number of points that constitute a breakout before the pullback (12 maybe?).
Also, like fazalv, I spotted the ND late in the session and executed a half-stake short (I cut it before the close). Where would you recommend I best place a stop loss before entering such a position?
Comments are welcome from everyone, and please keep up the excellent posts.
 

mombasa

Established member
Pete,

There was a bear flag developing at that point - so a long was a bad idea.

Also, for safe entries, CM says don't enter a trade unless 100 EMA has been breached by 20 points and then pulls back.
 

Pete Hannan

Junior member
Thanks mombasa,
and is there then a points criteria for what constitutes a verified move away from the 100EMA after testing it following the break through?
 

mombasa

Established member
No, at that point u have to make a decision using RSI strength of move etc for judgement.

It's not easy - what I've found is that I can more or less figure out why the dow has done what it's done by analysing the TA after close, but realtime is another matter entirely - that takes a lot of confidence and patience.

Keep on studying CM & NB's articles - it takes time for it all to sink in - and lots of practice applying that TA.
 

Newtron Bomb

Experienced member
Handy hint to help with the learning curve :cheesy:

1 - Start copying the analysis onto your own charts so that you can see where and how trends and pattens are formed from the analysts perspective
2 - when you are confident you can do a little analysis of your own and start putting this on the charts and compare this to the analysis you are looking at to see how close you are
3 - Start paper trading with your analysis in real time and compare with the analysis done at the end of the day
If real time is not a possibility atm then look to scroll through bar by bar to see how you would have faired doing the above and then compare with the eod analysis

HTH
 

eminem

Active member
China, someone on TT mentioned a five year fib level at 1068.30 on the cash I believe, might fit in with your measured move if we get that high.
 

bgold

Established member
I can sympathise with Mombasa and Pete Hannan. In hindsight, I can now (after study of Newtron's/ Chartman's note) the patterns with entry and exit. Real-time during the trading day is a different matter.

Take the present patterns. we have been hugging the 100ema. Feels like we are going to go up but i can't get enough evidence to put on a trade. Let alone recognise a clear "Chartman" buy signal.

I am keen to hear your views/insight.
 

Attachments

  • dow 8oct.png
    dow 8oct.png
    148.2 KB · Views: 438

rossored

Senior member
Posted this chart just to show how sometimes really short-term PD can pay off, when the two peaks/dips are hugely different. Your comments, CM?
 

Attachments

  • dowfuts.gif
    dowfuts.gif
    19.2 KB · Views: 433

bgold

Established member
Well, I guess you "regret" posting the chart. It's very difficult. After my post I dipped in and ad sold on test of 100ema at 18:20 at 9605. It felt good for about 10min and after 30min serious doubts crept in. I read CM's notes again and put a stop in at 20pts above 100ema (was 9622). Then got distracted by collapse of UNTD, a recent short favourites (see my posts in US stocks) and to my surprise saw DOW down and RSI making new lows.

Like you I am keen to hear CM's analysis.
 

Attachments

  • dow 8oct.png
    dow 8oct.png
    147.6 KB · Views: 400
 
Top
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock    No Thanks