DOW/ES charts 07/10-11/10

ChartMan

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New title to reflect some direction change. Dow 1 min chart looked like it might have got support off the tripple bottom at 7470 and for a while it looked that way.... but the early ND top at 7530 was the sting, leading the drop all the way into the close.The sting in the tail is the wimps closing their shorts but I feel more down to come. I can't see any suggestion of upside from here.
 

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ChartMan

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Time to start learning the nuances of ES. Is this 3 slope change going to turn out the same way as it does on the DOW? TA suggests that the RS switch did the biz, but is now a long way off resistance. The "V" bottom suggests it's fallen low enough, but has a lot of work to do to get above the RS switch line.
 

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ChartMan

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Volume says it all here. The uptick volume hardly made 2000 all day whilst the down tick volumes were regularly above this.Look at the volume action between 19:13 and 20:00. Even though the Bears volume dropped off, the bulls couldn't push the price over 795, and so lost the position. The second down tick 5000 peak confirmed that the Bears were in full control and full of confidence ans the inevitable resulted. You can't fight against volume and what the market wants to do.
 

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ChartMan

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The dow threw up a mixed bag and surprises today.Things started off good with a rise at the open to 7532, confirming the bears laving the market yesterday, but not for long....They soon took hold again and dragged the index down to 7330. Then the surprise...the rally. This started at around 5:15 as CCI wemt through zero and headed on up. The tops and pullbacks were easily called with two classic 3 pk ND tops. The second concluded a 250+ point rally.If you didn't see the last ND top, you should have at least recognised the expanding triangle and "vague" H&S developing around 7550, leading to the drop and falling through the 100MA.
 

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ChartMan

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ES continues to show interesting features....like the SR points at 85,95,05 etc. Lessons from yesterday...the falling off of RSI and CCI didn't do the Biz, but then we have no control of what happens overnight....After opening up, the down channel was soon broken and we had an excellent rally, the strength being evident from the volume increase, especially after the pullback to 786.795 should provide support tomorrow and if 805 can break and hold, there should be some more of the same supported by the rise in TA into the close.
 

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ChartMan

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Good volume indicators today- the bears lose control below 2000/1min and the bulls have it with > 4000. Then the bears move in with 4000 and start to slow the rally, eventually taking control.It would seem that at the end of the day, volume becomes less predictive, both side winding down. I've looked at 5 min volume and it seems to be very hard to see what is going on in terms of who has control. I'll stick with the 1 min charts.....
 

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ChartMan

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The H&S did the biz, dropping most of the dayto finish virtually at LOD...Good pos divergence throughout the second half of the day may give support tomorrow... 7300 is the crunch.
 

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ChartMan

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Good divergence into close with after hours up to 779 at 10pm could have stopped the rot...
 

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ChartMan

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expanded volume analysis showing tops and bottoms where the volume drops off before the actual top and bottom. The volume of up ticks seems to be greater than the volume on the down tick, but the price is still trending down. Is this an indication of reluctance on the buyers hence more down?
 

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neil

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This is why Chartman is a genius
 

ChartMan

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5,580 46
I am? :) we got the divergence result after a scary drop to 7200, but a great "V" bottom and a strong rally.Double entry confirmation as teh price pulled back to the downtrend res. line, and a bounce off the 100 MA for 250 points .The big bull flag was closely followed by a bull triangle that met target, confirming 7400 support on the way through. A great trading day for a change, but too much too quick...see the long term ND top so don't get too exited....having said that, after hours seems quite stable.
 

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ChartMan

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Clearly the bulls had the bears by the ***** today.Whilst RSI is divergernt, CCI shows promise with a bull flag developing.CCI come close to the AIQ Phase for seeking out divergence, so maybe we will move on up. Interesting to see the rises going up in 10 point steps still.....
 

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ChartMan

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Good volume tracking today.The first big rise clearly showing the lack of selling pressure, and the density and volume of buying strength. Then the "lunch time" drop off, and pickup around 6pm to continue the trend. Looks like the density and height above 2k/min is the signal line. Interesting that between 7 and 7:30 buth buy and sell volume declined,with a final sell peak at 7:32 signalling the end for the bears. By then the buying volume was already ramping up....
 

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ChartMan

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Dow Overview

Established up channel now, with the peak at 7900 just bouncing off the major down trend resistance that can be seen if you look at a 10 or 15 min chart. A strong finidh today should mean we hold this trend for a while, although to push higher, clearly 7900 has to go and preferably go back to test 7700. If the closing bull flag performs, we get a minimum target of 8000, and an upper limit of 8200.
 

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ChartMan

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Not a lot to say, but I hope you all got some of the action over the last few days. The 5/15/25's are still doing the biz....More to come next week, I hope. :)
 

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