DOW - ES Charts 28/10 - 1/11

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Dow is still channeling with no real signs that I can see of a break one way or the other. There is a triangle developing on CCI that may give indication as to the direction.Meanwhile , we'll have to put up with the 200 point range....
 

Attachments

  • 28-10-02.gif
    28-10-02.gif
    23.2 KB · Views: 445

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
ES shows the triangle formation in the price...Average volume slope diminishing so will we get a breakout when the volume drops below 2000?
 

Attachments

  • 28-10-02.gif
    28-10-02.gif
    26.8 KB · Views: 398

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Dificult to pick anything out of the volume today.Quiet before the storm?
 

Attachments

  • 28-10-02vol.gif
    28-10-02vol.gif
    20.7 KB · Views: 421

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
BAck to the 1 min dow , just for a change. 10min wise, we are still inside the channel, although we dropped out of the channel support briefly.Having dropped the big drop, the rest of the day was spent clawing it's way back up, to close just a few points up on the day. A good day to trade straight off support/trend lines finishing off with a classic 3 peak ND top for a rise of 160+ points. This leaves us mid - channel.....
 

Attachments

  • 29-10-02.gif
    29-10-02.gif
    17.3 KB · Views: 377

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
ES 10 min shows a clearer picture, with the false breakout failing to recover to support, bouncing just off resistance at the close. Finely balanced, but heading for a fall?
 

Attachments

  • 29-10-02.gif
    29-10-02.gif
    26.6 KB · Views: 395

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
I think I see the turning point... The RS switch on CCI..... The broader channel can be looked at in more detail as a bull flag, having completed 3 cycles. If it's going to break it should do it now... I would estimate 9400 target, but then I'm the eternal optimist :) The alternative is a rounded top and down we go. Doesn't have the right look and feel to be a rounded top though.
 

Attachments

  • 30-10-02.gif
    30-10-02.gif
    24.9 KB · Views: 342

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
RS switch coming into effect as the price drops through the "5" to 882 and promptly reversing back up into the close, finding support and bouncing off 885. Blue line is uptick volume and black bars are downtick volumes. Increase in support line slope into the close. So, 900 tomorrow?
 

Attachments

  • 30-10-02.gif
    30-10-02.gif
    23.2 KB · Views: 324

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
From the open untill 5pm UK time. A great example today of how to read the volume peaks,slopes and densities. This could have netted 15 points. The crunch was the sellers walking away at resistance 885 and the buyers moving the price up to that magic "5". Worth studying closely..... The MA line on the price is 100MA.
 

Attachments

  • 30-10-02vol.gif
    30-10-02vol.gif
    18.1 KB · Views: 276

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
No breakout then. :( Still in the main channel and still a chance for a turn round. I guess the bad economic news today took its toll in the end.
 

Attachments

  • 31-10-02.gif
    31-10-02.gif
    23.6 KB · Views: 241

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Volume chart.....Take a look at the end of the drifting session....after a period of low volume ( <2000/min) the up ticks volume increased after the price dropped out of support and bounced back to touch the 100 MA. Critically, the uptick volume made it's 3rd higher high, but could not push up the price to break either the channel or the 100MA. The next tick saw the bears flood in making 3000 the 7000 on vol. At the D. bottom at 878 the opposite happened. The bears couldn't push the price lower on dropping volume, against the bulls rising volume and the price turned around.
 

Attachments

  • 31-10-02vol.gif
    31-10-02vol.gif
    19.6 KB · Views: 221

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Channel broken to the downside and no sign of pulling back....
 

Attachments

  • 31-10-02.gif
    31-10-02.gif
    27.8 KB · Views: 226

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Finally it looks like we may be able to enjoy a breakout. The horizontal and down channel have both been broken to the upside.Strong finish to the day on both price and TA brings back memories of past strong Friday closes. If I say 8800 enough times, I guess eventually I will be right..... :)
 

Attachments

  • dow 01-11-02.gif
    dow 01-11-02.gif
    23.4 KB · Views: 187

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
A good day to see the relationship of Fib. retraces.After the peak at 8897, we had a 23% retrace to 892 before setting off again.
 

Attachments

  • es 01-11-02.gif
    es 01-11-02.gif
    24.5 KB · Views: 180

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Take a look at the negative divergence on the volume peaks earlier on in the day... See also the conditions leading up to the breakout . The down tick volumes started decreasing and the up tick volumes started increasing.... Getting onboard during the first candle that broke 880 is the trick. You definitely need a "seconds ticker " to do this. The previous tick at 15:30 just made 1000 for the minute. Watching the seconds tick, you would have noticed that at 30 seconds the volume was 1500, indicating the strength.Time to jump on board.
One of the keys to volume analysis is that the big moves come when the volume breaks 2000/min. Another is recognising the uptick increase and down tick decrease, and vice verca.
There was a lot of discussion in the chat room this afternoon about this. Clearly, the charts do not distinguish between buyers and sellers in one tick. Rather , the volume is portrayed as BLUE if the tick is up and RED if the tick is down. I find this a more simplistic approach and seems to present some sensible rules that one can follow. I'm sure that if the volumes were separated into buyers and sellers per tick, the picture may well become "overloaded".
Logically, if the volume of buyers goes up, then so must the price. It's all a matter of balance of power...... and to that end TA applies equally well to the changes in volume per tick as it does to the price.
 

Attachments

  • es 01-11-02 vol.gif
    es 01-11-02 vol.gif
    17.7 KB · Views: 151
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock