Dow is still channeling with no real signs that I can see of a break one way or the other. There is a triangle developing on CCI that may give indication as to the direction.Meanwhile , we'll have to put up with the 200 point range....
BAck to the 1 min dow , just for a change. 10min wise, we are still inside the channel, although we dropped out of the channel support briefly.Having dropped the big drop, the rest of the day was spent clawing it's way back up, to close just a few points up on the day. A good day to trade straight off support/trend lines finishing off with a classic 3 peak ND top for a rise of 160+ points. This leaves us mid - channel.....
I think I see the turning point... The RS switch on CCI..... The broader channel can be looked at in more detail as a bull flag, having completed 3 cycles. If it's going to break it should do it now... I would estimate 9400 target, but then I'm the eternal optimist The alternative is a rounded top and down we go. Doesn't have the right look and feel to be a rounded top though.
RS switch coming into effect as the price drops through the "5" to 882 and promptly reversing back up into the close, finding support and bouncing off 885. Blue line is uptick volume and black bars are downtick volumes. Increase in support line slope into the close. So, 900 tomorrow?
From the open untill 5pm UK time. A great example today of how to read the volume peaks,slopes and densities. This could have netted 15 points. The crunch was the sellers walking away at resistance 885 and the buyers moving the price up to that magic "5". Worth studying closely..... The MA line on the price is 100MA.
Volume chart.....Take a look at the end of the drifting session....after a period of low volume ( <2000/min) the up ticks volume increased after the price dropped out of support and bounced back to touch the 100 MA. Critically, the uptick volume made it's 3rd higher high, but could not push up the price to break either the channel or the 100MA. The next tick saw the bears flood in making 3000 the 7000 on vol. At the D. bottom at 878 the opposite happened. The bears couldn't push the price lower on dropping volume, against the bulls rising volume and the price turned around.
Finally it looks like we may be able to enjoy a breakout. The horizontal and down channel have both been broken to the upside.Strong finish to the day on both price and TA brings back memories of past strong Friday closes. If I say 8800 enough times, I guess eventually I will be right.....
Take a look at the negative divergence on the volume peaks earlier on in the day... See also the conditions leading up to the breakout . The down tick volumes started decreasing and the up tick volumes started increasing.... Getting onboard during the first candle that broke 880 is the trick. You definitely need a "seconds ticker " to do this. The previous tick at 15:30 just made 1000 for the minute. Watching the seconds tick, you would have noticed that at 30 seconds the volume was 1500, indicating the strength.Time to jump on board.
One of the keys to volume analysis is that the big moves come when the volume breaks 2000/min. Another is recognising the uptick increase and down tick decrease, and vice verca.
There was a lot of discussion in the chat room this afternoon about this. Clearly, the charts do not distinguish between buyers and sellers in one tick. Rather , the volume is portrayed as BLUE if the tick is up and RED if the tick is down. I find this a more simplistic approach and seems to present some sensible rules that one can follow. I'm sure that if the volumes were separated into buyers and sellers per tick, the picture may well become "overloaded".
Logically, if the volume of buyers goes up, then so must the price. It's all a matter of balance of power...... and to that end TA applies equally well to the changes in volume per tick as it does to the price.