Dow Intraday Charts 05 Jul - 09 Jul

Is this the bottom? Was all that vol on ES short covering? To continue off the bottom that CCI res. needs to be broken.a 240 break should see us to 280 , otherwise re-test 200 and down to 150 on failure....
 

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W target came nowhere near before it developed into an H&S offering a good short...Right shoulder under the 100MA and a pullback to the support line added strength to the argument, allowing an easy entry around 250. Out at the second try at 203? maybe.... If not, definitely at 17:21 at 210 on the 3rd trough. Now looking for a long or short.... and the bad news was the bear triangle break, inviting a short with T1 as target. Not a good trade, but you don't know that at the time..... at least the break back through 200 failed, and with the PD at 192, you should have taken the opportunity to exit for a couple of points, and even a reversal....risky... better to wait and see what develops...taking a long at the 210 pullback with T2 as target from the prior divergent W bottom, exiting as the price reverses off the 10 min downtrend resistance line and divergence.
 

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Interesting view of the daily INDU. Clear bull flag brewing. Look out for a clear reversal well off the support line for the classic early break out setup.That could be anywhere down as far as 9900 which happens to be horizontal support......
 

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C.M. I can see the bull flag ok. but do you think it could be forming a reverse H.S.?
 
We got the break, but not very strong... It failed to make 280 but the CCIdid just break through resistance. With 3 higher highs and higher lows, we are off again.
 

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You can see from the old 10 min res that when it broke, there was a nice run... It is important to know where the 10 min sup/res is...It may give you the confidence to increase your stake size a little, maybe...And had you done so, was there a place wher it would have made sense to add to your stake? And if you did,where would you start off loading? The magic numbers played an important part of the decision making today..especially as the "theoretical" expectation was to make 280 as a target on the break. The ND around 64 could only mean one thing.
 

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Hi CM and all

From yesterday you asked about adding to your stake. I assume you meant at the pullback to 232. didnt do it myself, too early in my learning stage. once i'm in i just try to get best exit (usually wrong).

However, many thanks for your postings, they really help me. like to compare my charts at the end of the day with yours. keep up the good work.
 
Yes, the pullback at 232. Don't worry too much about the entry yet (I mean don't jump in too soon) Far better , I think, having made the entry , to concentrate on managing it well.
 
Oh dear. Just as it looked to be turning.... This now looks like 10K...
 

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Same story, down to support, off to the magic 64 and down...
 

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ChartMan said:
Oh dear. Just as it looked to be turning.... This now looks like 10K...

Possibly.
It is also at 50% retracement of rise from May, right on the nose.
Now have to wait to see what the next consolidation, bounce or fall looks like.
Downward momentum has been pretty steep recently.
Glenn
 
Ema ?

ChartMan said:
Same story, down to support, off to the magic 64 and down...

Hi Chartman

What EMA period are U using in your graphs? Is it 100 days or am I confused (again!) ?

Thanks in advance

Smiley
 
Hi CM hope your well. Always like to read the weekly dow thread, interesting to look at your TA and learn from it. Today was a tricky day for me. I started the day with a long on the dax, took 20 points then stayed out of the dow and dax for the rest of the day. Probably could ave shorted the dow off the ND i saw at 10245 but thought better stay out of it as i wasn't confident on the trade.

I have been studying TA alot - reading some books and trying to get as much practise as i can before risking money again. One problem im having though and i can't seem to solve is good entry and exit points to maximise profits. I seem get the direction but time the trade wrong. Any advice? Any good places to look?

thanks
hammer :cheesy:
 
Smile- you got it..... it's 100 PERIOD. so on a 1 min chart it's 100 minutes. If it's a daily chart, then it's 100 days...
 
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