Dow 2006

[dc2000]

Yes that should be the high for the day Im expecting it to come off slightly and rally into close nothing too big 30 to 40 points a finish around 11003 would place it well for tomorrows trading.

Im still confident of 11200 before mid March

Leo
It should trade above 11k for a few weeks yet a slow but firm type rally
The 1000 points is over 2 days

 

[leovirgo]

Im still confident of 11200 before mid March

Leo
It should trade above 11k for a few weeks yet a slow but firm type rally
The 1000 points is over 2 days

So 2day scoop will be around Mid March?

 

[dc2000]

probably towards the end once the top is in and 11200 isnt the top

 

[houdani]

looking like we're going to tag the 11047-50 area tonight, hope you're not caught short.

 

[kriesau]

Dow is on Viagra today though ironically enough Pfizer is the ONLY declining stock on the index ! :cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[dc2000]

lets see if Burntbake can get it down for early Friday

 

[Pat494]

Hows about a short to catch the bounce off the ceiling ????

 

[kriesau]

Nobody should forget that inverted yield curve !

BOSTON (MarketWatch) 2/14/06 -- Renewed uncertainty over monetary policy with a new Federal Reserve chief has fund managers turning more bearish on stocks even as managers cut their cash stakes to five-year lows, according to a monthly fund-manager survey by Merrill Lynch.
"There is an unmistakable change of tone in the survey this month," Merrill noted in its first survey since Ben Bernanke, whose first major public address as Fed chairman comes with Wednesday's semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee, took the U.S. economy's reins. Bernanke was sworn in Feb. 1. Half the managers polled by Merrill think the Fed has not finished tightening, and nearly two-thirds see the yield curve remaining flat or growing more inverted over the next year."

 

[Racer]

and the UK has had an inverted yield curve for a long time now and no one says a word about that

 

[Racer]

Yen Gains; Report Signals Japan's Investors Bringing Cash Home

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened against the dollar for a third day on signs Japanese investors are bringing money home before the end of the financial year next month.

Investors were net sellers of foreign bonds in January for the first month in the financial year that started in April, a government report showed yesterday. The yen fell 13 percent versus the dollar last year as the Bank of Japan held rates near zero and investors bought 16.6 trillion yen ($141.6 billion) of assets abroad. The yen rose in March for three of the past four years.

``With the huge amount of money that Japanese sent abroad, repatriation flows could have a major effect on the dollar-yen through March,'' said Yuji Saito, a currency dealer at Societe Generale SA in Tokyo. ``That will support the yen.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=aYrt.YbDycs8&refer=japan

 

[Pat494]

Hows about a short to catch the bounce off the ceiling ????

Well that's 17 points in the bag from Dow future overnight.
Peanuts did someone say ? Yes but at £100 a point - not bad for a night's kip

 

[dc2000]

Not bad at all

Did you not want the full 30 points then?

 

[Matt321]

Dow Video entertainment before the markets open,press F11 on your keyboard for full screen

http://www.tradethemarkets.com/video/playbook/playbook.html

 

[Pat494]

Not bad at all

Did you not want the full 30 points then?

Good one DC
I have to confess before anyone trashes their office/home etc. in rage and envy
I didn't have the courage of my own conviction and didn't have a bet. Must learn to take my own forecasts a bit more seriously
Probably wrong next time anyway

 

[kriesau]

Dow Video entertainment before the markets open,press F11 on your keyboard for full screen

http://www.tradethemarkets.com/video/playbook/playbook.html

"Ineresting" as the Yanks would say

One thing he said though was absolutely 100% spot on. His comment that anyone who claimed that you could ever be unemotional when trading was talking a "crock of ****". Not only is that absolutely true but his terminology is totally appropriate in this instance because it is absolutely unambiguous and definitive !

There have been one or two advocates of the "unemotional" theory on these boards in the past and I always considered this to be complete garbage. We are all emotional creatures and to be totally unemotional would be totally inhuman.

The pilot of an aircraft is an emotional human being but he/she learns to sublimate emotional responses and to focus upon sequences of rational behavior which have been conditioned through both experience and training. They have to deal with both fear and elation from time to time but they cannot allow these emotions to influence their behavior in a working environment. This is a combination of good temperament and professional competence.

Thats the mind set and approach that traders have to acquire. The key is to work through all of the possible emotional responses by a focus on making rational decisions that are not swayed or tainted by either greed or fear.

One of the unspoken consequences of this is that there are days when you can potentially perform better or worse depending upon your own personal equilibrium. If you have had a major domestic spat or are feeling great because of some unexpected success in another context you are likely to be more emotionally coiled than on a routine day where nothing much has happened. I guess it is just important to be aware of the triggers that could make your decision making process more or less emotive on any given day.

High horse ridden now and time to dismount ! :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[Pat494]

It will be very interesting to see if Ben B. carries on championing openness or is gradually forced ( like Greenspan ) to talk more and more in riddles. So he doesn't look silly when he gets it wrong.
It will be the first time in many years if the Fed Chairman says what he means and the markets should react strongly imho.

 

[Racer]

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- Capital flows into the United States fell to $56.6 billion in December after hitting a revised $91.6 billion in November, the Treasury Department said Wednesday. The decline was led by a drop in private investors' purchases of Treasury bonds and notes. Investors purchased $12.7 billion of Treasuries in December versus $50.8 billion in November. Official institutions bought $5.6 billion of Treasury bonds and notes in December, up from $3.7 billion in November. Net foreign purchases of long-term domestic securities were $74.2 billion. U.S. investors increased their purchases of foreign-issued securities in December, buying $17.6 billion in foreign bonds and equities, the Treasury said.


(and btw something to note: Japan news...Investors were net sellers of foreign bonds in January)

 

[kriesau]

Bernanke due to speak to the House in about 5 minutes time.

 

[leovirgo]

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that while "substantial progress" has been made in removing policy accommodation, robust demand could lead to upward price pressures.

Bernanke was upbeat about the prospects for the U.S. economy, telling members of the House Financial Services Committee that the latest employment and consumer spending data "suggests that the economic expansion remains on track."

While "the news has been good" that long-term inflation expectations appear "well anchored," Bernanke warned in prepared testimony that "with aggregate demand exhibiting considerable momentum, output could overshoot its sustainable path, leading ultimately - in the absence of countervailing monetary policy action - to further upward pressure on inflation."

 

[leovirgo]

I would expect a mid day reversal if it continues with the upbeat. The market seems to like what Bernanke said.