The last time sentiment was so overwhelmingly bullish was 1987...

C

Car Key Boi

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and we all know what happened that year...

- Car Key Boi :eek:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19063828


AAII (http://www.aaii.com ).
6/25/03
Bulls 71%
Bears 9%
*
*
* 06/18 06/11 06/04 05/28 05/21 05/14
--------------- ------ ------ ------
Percent BULLS......: 56% 50% 52% 63% 38% 63%
Percent BEARS......: 36% 29% 19% 14% 36% 16%
*
*
IIA INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE ADVISOR SENTIMENT
Source: Investors Intelligence (http://www.chartcraft.com ).
* 06/20 06/13 06/06 05/30 05/23 05/16
--------------- ------ ------ ------
Percent BULLS......: 59.4% 60.2% 58.7% 56.5% 53.6% 56.0%
Percent BEARS......: 17.7% 16.1% 16.3% 20.7% 22.0% 20.9%
*
courtesy http://www.decisionpoint.com
 
I dont believe that this is comparing like with like. In 1987 there had been a 4 year bull run and the market had departed steeply from a normal trend line progression when it crashed. It then resumed along the original trend line although it took a while to get there. We have just had a 3 year bear run and although there are bullish signs the situation, in my view, is very different. Whether the market continues up or goes down, well no-one knows but markets are never as easy as taking one set of statistics in isolation and then making exact predictions.


Paul
 

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lol, i know one statistic on it's own means jack

and i don't think there will be a crash along the lines of 1987 - but i certainly think this recent war rally is over and the Dow might take a nose dive over the next month or so to around 8400 ish

but as yuo say, no one is really sure - but i'm gonna lay off the large caps and the techs for now until we get some better economic figures to justify the current values

i know, i'm a fundamental tard but i will use some basic TA to work out my entries and exits

don't get me wrong Paul, i have the utmost respect for TA tards but i refuse to trade a stock solely by looking at a chart, i gotta have the fundamentals to be in my favor as well

- Car Key Boi
 
I agree, the fundamentals dont look good and I also think the market may well go down but I have learned not to try and predict what will happen, just react to what actually does happen.

Cheers


Paul
 
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