Dow 2006

[easytimes]

If you look at the weekly Dow chart it looks like a valid 123 High reversal pattern has formed. I have a hunch we could be seeing 11K+ this week though before any reversal does anybody here trade these reversal patterns and/or Ross Hooks? Not sure how to post charts on this site though to show what I mean.

http://www.apsh80.dsl.pipex.com/site_gifs/indu123.gif

 

[Matt321]

Hi Matt, I have 45 points up on Monday to 10,964 then a slow fall off over the next few days
not advice just my view at present based on my indicator
Regards

Yer you could be right Twiggytwo,its getting through resistance at 10,950 so maybe 10,964 to take the stops out,then back down,test support then a big push for 11,000 . Should be choppy towards the end of the week as options expire Friday.

 

[kriesau]

Google currently down 2.5% pre-market.

 

[kriesau]

Resistance at 10950 still holding.
There will need to be a convincing breach of this Support level if the Dow is going to cross 11000 again this month.
Otherwise we could be looking at a retest of Support at 10800 soon !

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshotshow&u=gxaVHeeVf1oCM6UikOrswNZbTscn8f%2B4RgAEBUSGTXg%3D.

 

[dc2000]

just shy of that level at 10840 would be good IMO for a run upto 11200 early march and then on to the top late march

 

[dc2000]

pretty much as expected and so on to tomorrow

 

[Matt321]

They said volumes were down yesterday because of the heavy snow.scroll around to find chart.
Support 10840/50 Resistance 10950

Pivots points for tomorrow posted below in case we go into ping pong mode.


R2 10983
R1 10937
Pivot 10893
S1 10847
S2 10803

 

[kriesau]

Some interesting statistics:

Market analyst Yale Hirsch has compiled extensive data on the January barometer.
Since 1938 the January direction of the Dow predicted the full year direction 82.1% of the time.
The S&P 500 predicted the full-year direction 80.6 percent of the time.
The Nasdaq Comp predicted the full year direction (since 1971) 76.5% of the time.

In January 2006 the Dow was up 1.8% .
The S&P500 Index was up 2.5%.
The Nasdaq Comp was up 4.7 percent (NDX up 4.0%)

However the January Barometer has been wrong 3 times over the past 5 years.
In the odd years, it incorrectly predicted an up year in 2001 and down years in 2003 and 2005.
In the even years, 2002 & 2004 it got it right.

So will it prove to be a true indicator in 2006 (an even year) or will it mislead again for the 4th time in 6 years ???
:cheesy: :cheesy: :cheesy:

 

[dc2000]

Nah looks like another incorrect year, but one things for sure once we trade above 11k for a while we will be seeing a lot of hype about 2006 being a top year and talk of 12k+

my prediction, 2 days 1000 points down and it is coming

as for the shorter term how about for starters we go and knock the stuffing out of that R2 matt has been kind enough to post

 

[mark twain uk]

dc,

welcome back, I saw that you were busy trading cable and thought that you lost interest in the dow. I changed my stance over the last few days, I was bearish but now I am neutral, any attempt to sell the dow has been met with solid buying and I too think that there will be another attempt at taking out 11k. The $64k question (literally!) is when shall we start opening our shorts for the mighty drop, IMHO it is only a matter of time.

 

[leovirgo]

Nah looks like another incorrect year, but one things for sure once we trade above 11k for a while we will be seeing a lot of hype about 2006 being a top year and talk of 12k+

my prediction, 2 days 1000 points down and it is coming

as for the shorter term how about for starters we go and knock the stuffing out of that R2 matt has been kind enough to post

Oil below $61 and FTSE touching record high give DOW bulls some inspiration. I wanna see the price action at 1330gmt.

 

[leovirgo]

The $64k question (literally!) is when shall we start opening our shorts for the mighty drop, IMHO it is only a matter of time.

Hi Mark, I don't follow $64k. What's that?


LVG

 

[mark twain uk]

LVG,

Nothing of any great significance, a £40 short timely placed to catch a 1000 point drop would yield £40k proift which is close enough to $64k for the purpose of this discussion..

 

[dc2000]

no worries Mark there is plenty of time yet we need to start trading above 11k over a couple of weeks just to get peeps used to the upside

 

[leovirgo]

Could this be a double edge sword?

U.S. Retail Sales Rose 2.3% in January; Ex-Autos Up 2.2%

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Retailers rang up their biggest sales gains since May 2004 last month as Americans bought more cars and cashed in their holiday gift cards.

The 2.3 percent rise was more than double economists' forecast and followed a 0.4 percent increase in December, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 2.2 percent, the most since December 1999.

``January will be the first of many months that consumer spending is much stronger than people thought it would be,'' Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, said before the report. ``Job and income growth are likely to be stronger in 2006 than in 2005.''

 

[leovirgo]

LVG,

Nothing of any great significance, a £40 short timely placed to catch a 1000 point drop would yield £40k proift which is close enough to $64k for the purpose of this discussion..

give us a shout when you jump

 

[macbonzo]

So which argument will prove to be more compelling? Strong retail expenditure or continued interest rate increases? Both bulls and bears have a pretty good argument to play with today. Worth noting that NYMEX crude had fallen over $8 in a week.

 

[dc2000]

be nice if we come off a bit for 2nd entry, the high should be around the 11022 mark

 

[leovirgo]

be nice if we come off a bit for 2nd entry, the high should be around the 11022 mark

11022.31. Right on the spot.

So it has to stay here for a few days to bring in the crowd before the doomsday?

 

[kriesau]

be nice if we come off a bit for 2nd entry, the high should be around the 11022 mark

Is that your high for today or a first stage top with a dip before the real top this afternoon ?
You still confident of 11200 !

Be interesting to see what impact Bernankes comments have tomorrow especially if he indicates that further rate hikes are on the menu after todays retail numbers. Any such indications could become the catalyst for a sharp drop (maybe your 1000 pointer) particularly since we are still within the current diamond formation.

Currently long from 10955 but begining to look for a good short entry point.