Doomy's back and he's about to butthurt the AUD/USD

[wackypete2]

Hi Doomy,

Look at the 4H chart. Major downtrend. Nothing has fundamentally changed recently to suggest the trend is or will soon be over. You would need a close above .8826 to look for more gains, otherwise it's all downhill. If you are into fibs, a 50% retracement only takes you to about .8925 which is 165 pips from the low.Thats will also be another difficult resistance area. If you expand the chart to daily time frame you will see the current trend started last October.

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

Yeah buddy, fingers crossed it's "reversal" actually does start here....

I guess we'll see what happens tomorrow :clap:

Is no one else optimisitc about this? Also, what's your opinions on where my stops are?

If you opened up a punt, err position I mean, at .8800 then your stop @ .8738 is fine, target should be around the 50% retrace level as I stated above @ .8925. This gives about 1:2 risk vs reward in terms of money. But IMO the risk of being stopped out while going against the trend is much greater than the possibility of reward.

Peter

 

[Doomberg]

Thanks for the input Pete, it is a pun tbh....

But as they say, even a blind squirrel finds the occasional hazelnut

 

[wackypete2]

Just adding my 2 cents.
As long as the squirrel doesn't get my hazelnuts I'm good

Peter

 

[Doomberg]

Just adding my 2 cents.
As long as the squirrel doesn't get my hazelnuts I'm good

Peter

[insert joke here about the squirrel nibbling on your hazelnuts]

 

[counter_violent]

Doom, lets just try to rationalise what's going on here.

If you accept that AUD USD is in a downtrend and if you accept that trends are more likely to continue than reverse, then the only logical way to play top or bottom picking is by taking a position with a pretty tight stop. If stopped and if you still believe in the reversal, then take another position after re-evaluating etc etc.

I took a speculative AUD USD long early in the day @ £20.00 / point.
I closed that trade 19.26 points higher and gained £385.50 nett.
I now have £385.50 of risk free ammo in the acct should I decide to re-enter the pozzy. Are you following me ?

 

[sonofcablemonster]

Doom, lets just try to rationalise what's going on here.

If you accept that AUD USD is in a downtrend and if you accept that trends are more likely to continue than reverse, then the only logical way to play top or bottom picking is by taking a position with a pretty tight stop. If stopped and if you still believe in the reversal, then take another position after re-evaluating etc etc.

I took a speculative AUD USD long early in the day @ £20.00 / point.
I closed that trade 19.26 points higher and gained £385.50 nett.
I now have £385.50 of risk free ammo in the acct should I decide to re-enter the pozzy. Are you following me ?

Yeah but that's not risk free ammo as you took risk to get it. init.

 

[counter_violent]

Yeah but that's not risk free ammo as you took risk to get it. init.

I think I mentioned pretty tight stop and shirly it's better to have a few small hits than 1 acct wiper, innit

 

[sonofcablemonster]

Oops, just doubled up and opened up another position at 8005, both stops are at now at 8738...

And both limits are at 8998 :clover:

Quadruple and reverse? :cheesy:

 

[Emini-mouse]

I think I mentioned pretty tight stop and shirly it's better to have a few small hits than 1 acct wiper, innit

Stop calling him Shirly

 

[Doomberg]

Aussie open...

A bullish move shortly before the morning open is a good sign about people with inside info.

 

[Doomberg]

When i say morning rise, i mean 9am in Sydney / Melbourne

 

[wackypete2]

What happened to that bullish rise?

 

[Doomberg]

This is a marathon and not a sprint :clap:

 

[Liquid validity]

Hi Doomy,

Look at the 4H chart. Major downtrend. Nothing has fundamentally changed recently to suggest the trend is or will soon be over. You would need a close above .8826 to look for more gains, otherwise it's all downhill. If you are into fibs, a 50% retracement only takes you to about .8925 which is 165 pips from the low.Thats will also be another difficult resistance area. If you expand the chart to daily time frame you will see the current trend started last October.

Peter

Pretty much agree, and bang on.
8826 is upper limit of current range (8826-8755).
Todays asian session hasn't busted that.
So thats 3 tests of 8826 area that haven't held up (17th, 20th and today).
Either trade it as a range or leave it alone.

 

[Forexmospherian]

7.00 am UK time Tuesday 21st Jan - AU update for Doomberg

AU - stayed above 8790 - but like EU in a range with 8835-40 needing to be breached if it wants to go higher, - for me intraday session bias bullish above 8810.

GL Dooms - I just hope you have not done a tenfold yet

Have a good day

Regards

F

 

[sonofcablemonster]

Doomberg. if it goes below 8800 it could easily retest its weekly low. be careful.

 

[Liquid validity]

Looks like current move exhausted, taking into account the time,
and its been a decent intra day move down.
Who cares, exit on weakness.

 

[Doomberg]

Tbh i'm a little anxious about it being stuck in this range.... if we don't break 8040 today then i'm closing

 

[Forexmospherian]

AU - update at just gone 2 00pm UK time -

8780 Support area holding after fall from LO. Now back over 8800 - but for me only going back into bullish territory back over 8810 and 8840.

Yes it's OK for scalp buys - but without both 8810 and 8840 being breached - we just might do a LH under 8836.- or even under 25 and then back to scalp sells again to test 8800 area and then 8780 possibly again

GL

F