Does technical analysis work or not?

[EnlightenedJoe]

The interest rate on oil has plummeted to 5.8%. That leaves gas being the biggest payer.

The price has breached the recent high. I took a new position on the breach double the size on the bait. I will use this as the new bait and will remove the lower bait when I can. Nothing more to do until they run the price up to the upper trend line. Then I will have a better idea on what they are doing.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Interest rate on gas rocketed to 7.5%. The price looks like going higher, but I am content for a position at the current level ahead of the weekend. Will take more position higher up if it looks like something is happening.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

I had expectations of GAS going higher and it did. So I took a position at the level of the expectation. I have now closed out the position that I rook in case it didn't go higher.

I am looking for more size but nothing more to do until I see their next fencing move.

 

[piphoe]

someone has tech analysis on your tech analysis and someone else has tech analysis on his etc.

or said another way, someone somewhere is gaming your game and another his game and yet another HIS game

it's an infinite regression that you can't escape from..

that's why tech analysis "edges" mysteriously evaporate quickly :|

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

or said another way, someone somewhere is gaming your game and another his game and yet another HIS game

In a typical deal, the broker gets paid whether you win or lose. The original asset holder gets paid when they buy back from you cheaper than what you paid.

What is the pay off for these third party gamers ? They game because it is fun ?

 

[piphoe]

In a typical deal, the broker gets paid whether you win or lose. The original asset holder gets paid when they buy back from you cheaper than what you paid.

What is the pay off for these third party gamers ? They game because it is fun ?

they think they have a winning edge!

all those "out-of-the-box" indicators have been gamed ad infinitum ..

math-based indicators are TA right? and that includes any LINES or SQUIZZES or whatever you like to draw on your PRE-DEFINED charts.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

they think they have a winning edge!

all those "out-of-the-box" indicators have been gamed ad infinitum ..

math-based indicators are TA right? and that includes any LINES or SQUIZZES or whatever you like to draw on your PRE-DEFINED charts.

Gamed ad infinitum for what purpose ? Of course if you believe the broker or the bank is gaming then that's understandable because they have a financial interest in it. What would be the purpose of third party gamers, since they don't get paid ?

Lines in charts is bad is it ? If I draw an arbitrary line on my chart, how do these gamers workout I have a line ?

 

[piphoe]

Gamed ad infinitum for what purpose ? Of course if you believe the broker or the bank is gaming then that's understandable because they have a financial interest in it. What would be the purpose of third party gamers, since they don't get paid ?

Lines in charts is bad is it ? If I draw an arbitrary line on my chart, how do these gamers workout I have a line ?

my point there isn't a line on your chart that hasn't been drawn before or accounted for in the annals of trading.

nothing new under the sun

ps exception: HFT. now they have some new stuff never seen before

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

my point there isn't a line on your chart that hasn't been drawn before or accounted for in the annals of trading.

nothing new under the sun

That's not true. My line and my chart are unique amongst all charts since the beginning of time. In fact this is one of the reasons why TA doesn't work. It's simply not possible to use past chart patterns to predict what is yet to come because future charts are always unique, likewise all past charts are unique.

 

[userque]

That's not true. My line and my chart are unique amongst all charts since the beginning of time. In fact this is one of the reasons why TA doesn't work. It's simply not possible to use past chart patterns to predict what is yet to come because future charts are always unique, likewise all past charts are unique.

I suspect many could disagree with you as they likely have extremely profitable pattern recognition algos.

But, I definitely disagree with you as I definitely have such a custom algo.

Simply because you haven't figured out how to do it, as great as you are, still doesn't means it's impossible.

 

[babyjake1961]

The brokers have a strong edge over their clients from the very start by simply being on the other side of those attempting to predict the unpredictable. Markets have historically never been repeating and never will. The number of possible market scenarios is virtually endless. Therefore, no one can consistently profit from trading unless they are exploiting some market inefficincies they have spotted and researched.

For one, I am exploiting such an inefficiency as price momentum. I know my strategy can remain stagnant for months when there are simply no sufficiently strong market gyrations but I couldn't care less - for I know they will inevitably come sooner or later like they always have. Markets just don't stay idle forever. I would be defeated with my strategy only if no major market rifts ever happened. Yet with no regard for their exact timing, one can almost be certain they will come, like they have just about every year. However, if I was hoping for some rather specific market scenarios to repeat, I could mark myself a loser from that very moment.

 

[dbphoenix]

The brokers have a strong edge over their clients from the very start by simply being on the other side of those attempting to predict the unpredictable. Markets have historically never been repeating and never will. The number of possible market scenarios is virtually endless. Therefore, no one can consistently profit from trading unless they are exploiting some market inefficincies they have spotted and researched.

For one, I am exploiting such an inefficiency as price momentum. I know my strategy can remain stagnant for months when there are simply no sufficiently strong market gyrations but I couldn't care less - for I know they will inevitably come sooner or later like they always have. Markets just don't stay idle forever. I would be defeated with my strategy only if no major market rifts ever happened. Yet with no regard for their exact timing, one can almost be certain they will come, like they have just about every year. However, if I was hoping for some rather specific market scenarios to repeat, I could mark myself a loser from that very moment.

If you're trading forex, no doubt all of that is true.

But not everyone trades forex. I realize it seems that way, but, no, not everyone trades forex.

Db

 

[babyjake1961]

If you're trading forex, no doubt all of that is true.

But not everyone trades forex. I realize it seems that way, but, no, not everyone trades forex.

Db

I chose to apply this strategy on Forex solely because of its volatile nature, available high leverage, and relatively low transaction costs - while compared to other markets. No everyone trades Forex but anyone can if they choose.

 

[dbphoenix]

I chose to apply this strategy on Forex solely because of its volatile nature, available high leverage, and relatively low transaction costs - while compared to other markets. No everyone trades Forex but anyone can if they choose.

My point is that the repetitions that you're unable to find in forex are easy to find in at least index futures, or any other instrument that is mean-reverting. Plus one is not trading against his own broker.

There is a price to be paid for trading what appears to be "cheap". I watch people discover that fact on an almost daily basis.

Db

 

[babyjake1961]

My point is that the repetitions that you're unable to find in forex are easy to find in at least index futures, or any other instrument that is mean-reverting. Plus one is not trading against his own broker.

There is a price to be paid for trading what appears to be "cheap". I watch people discover that fact on an almost daily basis.

Db

Those other markets in my view have become excessively rigged over the past years - too rigged to expect consistent profits from mean reversion strategies and the like. So I had to figure something with a much less specific market behavior expectation.

 

[dbphoenix]

Those other markets in my view have become excessively rigged over the past years - too rigged to expect consistent profits from mean reversion strategies and the like. So I had to figure something with a much less specific market behavior expectation.

The behavior expectation is what makes them profitable, if one knows how to exploit the predictability.

But if you've found something more suitable, there's no reason not to run with it.

Db

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

I suspect many could disagree with you as they likely have extremely profitable pattern recognition algos.

But, I definitely disagree with you as I definitely have such a custom algo.

Simply because you haven't figured out how to do it, as great as you are, still doesn't means it's impossible.

Any joe blow can claim they have this they have that, doesn't mean they do.

Since your "algo" is top secret no doubt, I won't bother asking you anything about it. Just be happy you can use the market like an ATM. I know it's definitely possible since the market pays me every day anyway, and it's not even a secret how I do it.

 

[babyjake1961]

Any joe blow can claim they have this they have that, doesn't mean they do.

Since your "algo" is top secret no doubt, I won't bother asking you anything about it. Just be happy you can use the market like an ATM. I know it's definitely possible since the market pays me every day anyway, and it's not even a secret how I do it.

Can what you do be coded into an algo?

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Can what you do be coded into an algo?

What I do is mostly just sit and collect pay. An algo isn't necessary.

 

[babyjake1961]

What I do is mostly just sit and collect pay. An algo isn't necessary.

It's a sellable product. You can still sit and collect pay with it, just from a whole of two sources - with the second potentially securing an even higher revenue stream.