Day trading the DOW 31/03/03

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Olwen yes it was a bull flag but it failed, breaking to the down side. It stll has a target and the resultant drop failed to make it, as did the pullback target in the middle of the drop. You should have expected a rise from the third low, instead it dropped straight through.
I said earlier today in the chat room, be patient and wait for something to develop in TA to get some pointers as to where we were going. That eventually developed, givig three separate targets between 8305 and 8310.
The triangle, then the bull flag then the pullback. All went well till 8310 ...... then you should have spotted two things developing.
1. A possible H&S developed.This got "cancelled at 20:09 as the price pulled away from the support line drawn in....( 8301 was the target).
2. The peak at 8317 should have got you looking for possible divergences setting in, which there was, in both CCI and RSI.
Now here's the crunch. One would have expected a third rise to complete the negative divergence. It didn't happen. The time frame was correct at 24 mins . As soon as the price broke the support line from the H&S, that should have made you hit the sell button. I got out for a measly 2 points. IF you missed that exit, you would only have lost 30 points max from there...... so no big deal.
My data feed /charting was all screwed up for most of the afternoon so I could do nothing. :( Those that got in early should have made close on 100 points.
Iv'e checked that the MA is set to 100 this time. :)
Up 215 on the day.
 

Attachments

  • dow 02-04-03 1 mina.gif
    dow 02-04-03 1 mina.gif
    22.9 KB · Views: 424

olwenh

Active member
112 0
just printing off the chart - got interrupted by a phone call.

Chartman, which chatroom are you referring to? the one on here?
 

Newtron Bomb

Experienced member
1,602 87
CM could you explain a pull back target... ive never actually read anything anywhere about this

Thanks
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
It's simple.... treat it just like a bull flag ( or bear flag). The main difference is that it occurs as part of a big push up, where the price needs a breather and the mm's to grab back a few shares so that they can continue to have move shares available as the price moves up. You will only get something like 1 -4 ticks of pullback . In the example here, the pullback is minute, but defined. The target is 8015+ ( 8015-7980) = 8050. As divergence has set in, a scalper would take the 8050 target , or very near.
Note the pullbacks work on the way down too - same rules.
 

Attachments

  • pullback.gif
    pullback.gif
    19.3 KB · Views: 389

olwenh

Active member
112 0
thanks for the summary cm,

just analysed my trades for yesterday.

I had 2 bad trades - both of them went long on a break thru HOD, both had rsi divergence so my fault, should have seen it.

Went short on the break down of flag at 17.36, but i wasn't clear on my exit - took 2 points at 18.15 - i was nervous - where do you see the exit from that trade?

Went long on the break up of the next flag & closed it when i saw the potential h&s - ready to go short but it bounced.

went short on the way back down thru the neckline.

so all in all i'm quite please that i saw most of the signals you mentioned - even though i only ended up with +15. I should have spotted the rsi divergence on the 2 losing trades .
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
You did as well as you could getting those few points on a short... I guess the bias robbed you of the majority of offer. I can't see that you could have done much better, having got in mid move.
 

Newtron Bomb

Experienced member
1,602 87
Pullbacks

Thanks CM... think it was just the terminology that you used.

You are essentially treating a pause, or pullback as a mini flag for a continuation of the move.

Thanks again for the clarification :cheesy:
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Just a quick look tonight.... Just two decent opportunities today.... First the triangle break out around 7pm riding to the top for40 odd points, then the ride down to close for another 50 odd.
The top was really strange, the final clue coming from the break down through the prior triangle target at 8305. Note how the targets were met all the way down....... A bad day for getting whipsawed out.....
 

Attachments

  • dow 03-04-03 1 mina.gif
    dow 03-04-03 1 mina.gif
    24.9 KB · Views: 327

Bigbusiness

Experienced member
1,408 23
I kept on going short and got stopped out for nothing. Gave up at 7 thinking it was a tight range day and missed the best bits!
 

Dino

Junior member
15 0
Chartman, I was monitoring the bear flag pattern (as marked on your chart) that developed from the 8320 high at 15:30 then broke below the lower trend line and went back up to touch it circa 17:30, then fell away again.

There was a S/R switch both on price & CCI followed by a possible head & shoulders.

If this was a true bear flag it did not make it's target so would probably have been an aborted trade anyway.

Was this trade-able in your opinion.

Dino.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
I can't figure out what you mean Dino....Can you re-post it using the times as displayed on the chart above....? the times/prices don't match....
 

olwenh

Active member
112 0
Didn't do too well yesterday, ended up -4.

I had too many distractions & wasn't concentrating properly.

Kids are on school hols now so I shall only be trading when I can.

but I hope cm will carry on with his daily summary as I find it invaluable.

o
 
 
AdBlock Detected

We get it, advertisements are annoying!

But it's thanks to our sponsors that access to Trade2Win remains free for all. By viewing our ads you help us pay our bills, so please support the site and disable your AdBlocker.

I've Disabled AdBlock