Day trading the DOW 24/03/03

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
A follow up to the reverse triangle posted yesterday. The target has failed to deliver- falling short by 2 points. Enough to call it a failure, confirmed by the following recovery to 872. Still leaves us stuck in no man's land, but on the balance I'd say up because the flag has failed to deliver the target. That STILL doesn't mean you can go blindly long tomorrow :) It does show that 865/866 is rediscovered support..... I will take that as my cue.
 

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tykoon

Junior member
24 0
Chartman, I enquired about the EMA being calculated on the close as I was wondering if there was any reason that on both Medved Quote Tracker and Prophit Finance Java Charts the 100 EMA appears slightly differently to your Sierra version. Yours appears to be closer to the price. Is there any reason for this? It appears the same on those 2 programs.

Thanks :)
 

JesseLivermoreII

Junior member
35 0
Chartman - superb work. Am studying hard ! Looking forward to today. I agree with tykoon about the 100EMA. I'm trialing esignal this week and your 100EMA does appear 'higher' at times. Possible that you're using more historical data in your calculation ? Mine only goes back two weeks. Would this affect it ?
Really value this thread...
Jesse.
 

Bigbusiness

Experienced member
1,408 23
Using Bigcharts, I found the 60ema matches Chartman's 100ema after the first hour. Using Lycos, I found the 60ema off 4 matches Chartman's 100ema after the first hour. These charts don't use the futures price so the ema looks different in the first hour.
 

olwenh

Active member
112 0
at the risk of offending chartman, (I hope not), but he changed his charts to 2min & 50 ema earlier in the week. I think he may have forgotten to change it back to 100 when he went back to the 1 min charts.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Dunno the answer here guys.... I did change one chart to 2 min/50 ema to maintain the correct ema profile..... I cant say I recall changing it back so maybe that's it. The other way discrepancies can come in is the start and end time of charts. I know there are differences in Lycos for example.... Sierra rolls back the EMA as if it were contiguous with yesterday's data. Lycos starts with fresh data at the open ( I think)...
PS I've just checked my charts at work and you're correct! Last night's DOW has the EMA still set at 50. Just goes to show that it's not really that important what the setting is :) ie previous reference to do I use the EMA on the closing prices. Others swear by SMA. At the end of the day, find something that you understand fully, stick to it, and learn the characteristics of it'd behaviour. The same argument applies to RSI and CCI settings, and any other indicators you may use. These things are not cast in stone.
For reference, here is the correct EMA on the DOW....
 

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Dino

Junior member
15 0
Chartman, thanks for a brilliant set of posts. My TA skills have improved greatly as a direct result of your contribution to this board.

One thing I still struggle with is the setting of targets for bull & bear flags. To get the target figure correct it is essential to know where the flag pole starts, but this start point does not always seem obvious to me.

In the 1 min DOW chart you posted above there are two flags, one seems to have an obvious start point, in the other it is less clear to me where the start point is.

Can you shed any further light on this.

Dino.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Dino- I've edited the chart to show the correct target. No wonder you couldn't work it out! Well spotted . Take a bonus point :)
Well done on your efforts. Nice to get feedback saying how people are improving.
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Difficult start again today with a pot luck entry... IF you shorted at a top , your losses would be minimal. If you shorted at one of the bottoms , then I guess you took a hit. :( (I tried a bit of each and failed.) The long pick was fairly easy with a couple of enrty points around 8170. Again, this could well have been a fruitless trade unless you had the witts about you to see the double /tripple top . An exit in the area it says "short entry" would have been just in profit. The safe short entry soon followed....at around 8180 again, as support failed and on the 100 MA pullback. There were in fact quite a few entries around here, all within 10 points or so, so no real harm in playing the "wait for a safe entry". No need to get panicked into entries, it's rarely worth the risk....
Note the HOR. 8170 line changing from resistance to support and back to resistance. As if you needed any more confirmation, there was a H&S as well. ( target 8162)
Look at the chart and see the "magic 8164 line"........ This was also resistance/support/resistance, as was 8132.
Picking a bottom was not clear cut.... There was divergence across 17:50 to 19:30.... and there a "W" bottom formed. The bar rising through 8126 was the exit signal at 19:46. Staying in for the 100MA real play would have taken you to the close. Before that, there was another exit clue from the last double top with divergence, giving an exit around 8130 @ 20:36.
Not an easy day, and 50 to 100 points were about all one could squeeze out......
 

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Guesty

Member
55 1
Yeah, same here Chartman, once again thanks for all your effort. My ability to interpret the Dow has come on 'leaps and bounds', and it's all your fault ! :cheesy:

CHEERS!
 

ed crane

Member
71 0
thanks chartman for another very interesting week......am i right in saying that you are using the AIQ / mytrack charting package?

also why do you trade the dow rather than s&p? what do you see as the advantages of one over the other?

ed crane
 

bansir

Well-known member
494 42
Was this a fairly tight day range for the dow? It looks about 95 points or so; I can't measure it properly as I'm away from my home PC.

If we do have a narrow H-L range could this mean a larger move may take place next weak?


Thanks for the posts Chartman.
Best Regards,
Neil
 

ChartMan

Legendary member
5,580 46
Jesse, Guesty, Ed and Bansir. Thx for the comments.
ED- I used to use AIQ, now I use Seirra Charts (www.sierrachart.com) much cheaper as I don't do any EOD stuff anymore. + MyTrack feed.

I do trade the S&P Futs.... and when I feel greedy I trade the DOW. 6 of one, half a doz of the other..... but I find the S&P less wild in its bias than dow so I prefer the S&P. I also trade the S&P premarket.

Bansir- check out NR7 info - there are theories that say after a 7 day period of narrow range trading, one can expect some volatility. I'll take a pass on that. If the move is big, I cash in big. If it isn't , too bad. Same story as news really, just trade what you see. You never know how big ( or small) a move is going to be until it's all over.........
 
 
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