Let's have an honest chat about TTD!
Since September 2020 TTD has been in somewhat of an experimental phase, a phase where different setups have been traded live in different market conditions - prior to Sept '20 TTD traded The 3 Ducks strat exclusively but this was proving to be difficult.
Over the past 6 months (during the experimental phase) some setups; mean revision and reversals fell flat on their face while other setups; momentum and breakouts just didn't cut the mustard. On the other hand, pullback and retracement setups according to the stats where steady over a number of different pairs, during different market conditions and over a large enough sample size and time period.
With this evidence and experience now in place, I think the sensible thing to do would be to just focus on the core pullback and retracement setups and windup all other setups. In true fashion I'd like to give this plan a blast and for the next month (March) I'd like to just trade pullbacks and retracements exclusively on TTD.
What I've found about PB's and RT's / the type I trade;
- Can work in different conditions
- Easy to identify
- Offer positive RvR
- Win rate isn't too low
- Tight SL can be employed (10 pips)
- SL can be managed / trailed, pushed to BE
Other insights you might find useful if you follow the daily updates / charts here on T2W;
- All PB and RT setups use a fixed 10 pip SL
- TP differs (+16/17/20/30/50 pips) depending on condition, trend-following / counter-trend / no trend setups
- SL management differs depending on condition, SL is trailed to BE quicker on counter-trend / no trend setups
- 1 open position at a time
- Fixed lot size
- Traded on a basket of Fx pairs
- Traded on 5 minute chart
- Risk per trade is approx 0.35% based on Darwinex risk algo (x1 leverage), I don't set the risk, the broker does.
Cutting areas of underperformance, TTD should be getting closer to profitability now that underperforming setups are getting the chop. From March TTD will focused exclusively and specialise in areas of current strengths.
Also, over the past month (33 trades) Risk versus Reward is almost 3:1 / Avg Win: +20.67 pips / Avg Loss: -7.09 pips.
Loss Aversion (La), TTD now has a healthy score of 7.5 out of 10. A high La score (for non-veterans) basically means winning trades are let run longer than losing trades 👍
