[DARWIN] MUS by Eyon_MUS - eyon

[CavaliereVerde]

Welcome to our friend @Eyon_MUS !
Let's go with a description of your strategy!

 

[Eyon_MUS]

Hi all.
I'm losing my grip ever since Feb crashed. This darwin is not invest-able for the time being.

Darwin is going through a re-evaluation & re-structuring process. Will updates once i'm back on the rein again.

As the old chinese idiom says. "As long as the green hills last, there'll be wood to burn."

Stay tuned.

 

[Eyon_MUS]

hi all,
First of all, pls don't judge my Darwin at the moment. I know I'm trading recklessly lately.

Now, i need to seek some advice from Darwinex veterans regarding my underlying (UL) return vs. Darwin return.
From my understanding. Darwin Var is set to 6.5%. UL return will be a factor of this 6.5, be it higher or lower.

I have been maintaining my UL Var around 54- 58% (avg abt 57%) for the pass 2-3 months, By definition, my Darwin return shld reflect a 57% / 6.5% = 8.7 times lesser than my UL's return. Am i right to think this way?

If the above is true, i was wondering why my UL return doesn't really match my Darwin return. As you can see my cal'n below.
UL return
Aug : 38.19%
Sept : 2.52%
Oct : 28.13%

Darwin return
Aug : 2.63% (14.52 times lesser)
Sept : 1.29% (2.06 times lesser)
Oct : 2.05% (15.72 times lesser)

As you can see, the return factor fluctuate fr 14.5 > 2.1 > 15.7 despite maintaining a constant Var for the past 3 months. Why is it so?? Does D-period play an important part here?

Do i have to maintain a 12 D-periods of consistently around avg 57% Var in order to get a constant 8.7 lesser factor in my Darwin return? Even so, why the fluctuation of return factor? Please help to explain.

Thanks a lot in advance.

 

[ASGTrade]

hi all,
First of all, pls don't judge my Darwin at the moment. I know I'm trading recklessly lately.

Now, i need to seek some advice from Darwinex veterans regarding my underlying (UL) return vs. Darwin return.
From my understanding. Darwin Var is set to 6.5%. UL return will be a factor of this 6.5, be it higher or lower.

I have been maintaining my UL Var around 54- 58% (avg abt 57%) for the pass 2-3 months, By definition, my Darwin return shld reflect a 57% / 6.5% = 8.7 times lesser than my UL's return. Am i right to think this way?

If the above is true, i was wondering why my UL return doesn't really match my Darwin return. As you can see my cal'n below.
UL return
Aug : 38.19%
Sept : 2.52%
Oct : 28.13%

Darwin return
Aug : 2.63% (14.52 times lesser)
Sept : 1.29% (2.06 times lesser)
Oct : 2.05% (15.72 times lesser)

As you can see, the return factor fluctuate fr 14.5 > 2.1 > 15.7 despite maintaining a constant Var for the past 3 months. Why is it so?? Does D-period play an important part here?

Do i have to maintain a 12 D-periods of consistently around avg 57% Var in order to get a constant 8.7 lesser factor in my Darwin return? Even so, why the fluctuation of return factor? Please help to explain.

Thanks a lot in advance.

The VAR conundrum is a big issue for most people so it's not a surprise that you didn't get a response since. One thing you should know is that it is extremely hard to move from one end of the spectrum to the other thanks to the D-periods and other such details. Sometimes it feels like it's best to allow 1-1 replication for strategies with "safe" underlying VAR because this is all unnecessary headache when you think of it. Still, it's the only difference between Darwinex and most PAMM businesses so yeah..

The system is such that it favours fixed risk for all trades entered, so if you're using variable risk or want some degree of flexibility with your trade sizes, you have to ignore the VAR ratio and do your thing.

The way it works, once you're locked in a ratio, it could take a long time to leave it. I tried for 3 months and couldn't. So assuming you are risking 2% per trade on a VAR ratio of 0.30, that 0.30 will remain the ratio, with two or three point deviations either way even if you change risk to 0.10% or 3% per trade until your Investor VAR is at 3.25 or 6.5. So the Investor VAR is the most important factor to look at. Even when it gets to those extremes, market volatility changes (which you have no control over) can still cause unwanted changes.

Basically, what you should do is to lock into a VAR range and remain there permanently (this is what Darwinex wants, fixed risks, etc.) or stay flexible and ignore however the risk engine tries to interpret your moves.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

As you can see, the return factor fluctuate fr 14.5 > 2.1 > 15.7 despite maintaining a constant Var for the past 3 months. Why is it so?? Does D-period play an important part here?

The reason is that the result of September was very close to 0 .
Suppose your return for September was exacly 0 , you could not calculate a factor.
So your real factor is 15 , it is stable and translated into a VAR of 60%.

BTW I suggest you to work with a lower VAR for 2 reasons.

1. A VAR > 30% means a serius possibility to blow
2. Low VAR is easier to keep stable.

In your place I would begin to set a risk per trade ~3% and keep trading that way for at least 3 months .

 

[Eyon_MUS]

Hi ASGTrade & CavaliereVerde,
Thanks for taking your time to response to my question.

The system is such that it favours fixed risk for all trades entered, so if you're using variable risk or want some degree of flexibility with your trade sizes, you have to ignore the VAR ratio and do your thing.

Yea, i was kinda in a gambling mode after Feb /March crash until lately that im starting to look back at this VAR, RS, new D-Score thingy.

The reason is that the result of September was very close to 0 .
Suppose your return for September was exacly 0 , you could not calculate a factor.
So your real factor is 15 , it is stable and translated into a VAR of 60%.

I see, that make a lot more sense now.

Btw, thanks for your kind suggestion, i will slowly adjust the VAR back to the normal range once my $TSLA stock reach 500 mark. I had withdraw a big chunk from this acc and pump into my $TSLA stonk.

 

[Eyon_MUS]

It took me almost 2 yrs to get back to just BE in Darwin return (pre-Covid crash). Pheew!! What a ride!

I'm not expecting any investor with this kind of equity graph. Just want to drop by and say hi. I'm still here👋😄.

 

[trilobite]

Congrats. on your Darwinia allocation, onwards and upwards!