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[DARWIN] MDU by jonfuentesx - Elpredador

Thank you @CavaliereVerde .

So I present myself, im a forex trader with around 10 years of experience. I started like all people I think, watching videos and so on..

I basically follow the trend with price patterns and adjusting my entries to lower timeframe to increase the r:r. I also filter my entries a lot; 90% are filtered.

I won 15000 of darwinia with my trading (darwinex broker contest).
I understand the logic of my trading and that’s why I think it’s a good idea to go big a create a fund (which I am trying now in Switzerland).

I thought about making a course to have extra income but I don’t really have money to invest in that.

not only to present my darwin, but I would like to tell that if anyone have any business offer you can PM me.
 
I hate long drawdown periods.

I already missed some old 100 pip tp's, but analyzing the successful trades of the past, I saw that these stretched up to 500-600 pips at times. Without a doubt, in the long term the higher tps are better, no taking into account the lower commissions and so on.

So here I am waiting for some current tp hit that's 300..

It's funny because my way of investing is parallel to porn advertising ... he found a way to be profitable, brokers hate him!

If scalping is the most profitable system for a broker, and the most promoted, this is the opposite.
 
You know, I've been here a long time of my life. I am sitting right now, after many, many ups and downs in my life, in the same position I was 7-8 years ago. Not on a technical level of course, but literally in the same sitting position, in the same place.

After several weird af stages in my life, travels and completely out of normal situations ... here I have returned. And after all this time, which although it is true I have not entirely dedicated myself to trading (there have been moments of complete pause), there is progress. I had never managed to get a broker to deposit in my way of investing 15,000 dollars (darwinia), and neither had I ever achieved a year of such great profitability as the past one.

However it is a slow process. Damn, so slow that you do not realize it and you need to reflect on whether you are really moving forward, to try to achieve objective facts that confirm it, like the one I just mentioned about darwinia. It is irrefutable proof, they are not castles in the air as I have felt countless times in trading.

The fact is that I feel that there is little diversity in my trading, and that although I believe I have reached good results with long operations of sometimes weeks duration, I am trying to add some operations in other terms, both in the medium term and somewhat. of scalping.

I don't have a good feeling about scalping, I think it's a slippery slope that can lead a person to start looking for their dopamine kick instead of real profits. It is the ideal system for the way the brain works with addictions, such as pulling a lever on a slot machine.

However I am giving it another chance and demo testing a daily scalping operation at the NY market opening.

On the other hand, I thought that I could speed up this process by doing the backtest, simply sliding the graph in each past opening and doing an excel with the results. I am doing it, however I feel that it is not half as effective as doing a real test: assuming we have a breakout system, and knowing myself, I know that there are many days that I would prefer not to enter because I do not see, for example, the trend enough defined. However in the backtest the mental state is different and you are in a mechanical mode in which you only want to reach the conclusion to fill in the next excel cell and calculate probabilities.

1605684061040.png



The columns in Spanish are the following: operation number, date, pair, explanation, tp, result, a hyperlink to a before and after image, and the maximum extension of pips that the operation would have reached in case of success.

To get a quicker idea, I express the result in colors: red is a loss, green is a hit, and orange is a hit that was lost because of a too small stop loss.

As you can see, for now most operations are lost, however in pips, the times that they are successful are higher profits. This also happens to me with my long-term strategy, perhaps it is simply my way of trading.

I will continue up to 50 operations and then I will have to reflect, however, as I said, the backtestings do not convince me too much.
 
Well friends, as you know we are in difficult times due to the virus, a question in which I am not going to deepen or give my personal opinions, since although we can debate for hours about conflicts of interest, politics, agendas ... but why lose time? The only reason for having certain personal opinions and grounds beyond the traditional media is to have a certain idea from where the blows are going to come. Being ignorant is a more difficult situation, since your superficial base of beliefs about an issue is dismantled the moment you start to receive blows and you do not even know where they come from. People who reason individually have that advantage / curse of seeing beyond.

I do not know how many people here will have large capital and resources, I am just a worker (not really, but I am on that social scale right now), however, due to personal circumstances I have met great, great personalities, including high positions in companies like j & j (and I have already said too much), and without the intention of underestimating the efforts of these people, which would be something typical of envious and low-value people, which I am not, I can affirm from experience that although the level of brilliance in those spheres is high, for some reason or another, other people of similar abilities find ourselves scattered around the world in a position, in my view, unfair.

And I do not feel good every time I speak eloquently about myself, I am not a charlatan and it is only the achievements that should speak, but I am also tired of being overly humble or downplaying our work.

The fact is that greatness, wealth and power do not work with a pole that attracts the middle, and to think like that would be to think like a child. Reality does not have an element of attraction in the center, by which people who are below are attracted upwards, and those from above are drawn downwards. That would be a socialist wet dream, and although it is a noble thought, I am convinced that we are adults here to know that it is not so.

In life there are two poles of attraction, one above and one below; The higher you are, the easier it is to stay or even climb, given the force of gravity exerted by your resources, contacts, merely the education and value system you have received, and on the contrary, if you place yourself on the other side of the line, if you belong to the underprivileged, then everything is against you. Not only because of the pressure of the other pole that drives you down, and the lower you are, the more force it exerts, but because of the added force of those who, being up, hinder the way to their possible competition, kick the ladder with a low class manufactured education and values, bureaucracy and the outlawing of all the ways that work.

I love to write huh? going back to the point..

The fact is that we, the low-level traders who have some success with their darwins, are here separated, while up there in the big hedge funds, negotiation and the union of forces is a daily part of the business, that's why they are there .

I think we could do more, I think all those traders with some success could join together and share experiences and ways of investing, we could learn from each other and win together. At the end of the day we are on a side against the market-maker cheaters who do not stop derailing our technical analysis. And well they do, it is the natural law of the strong, to keep the weak in place.

Look, we could create a great course based on real success, we could come together and create something legal with a shared fund that, uniting all the parts and each one putting our grain of sand, receiving a benefit proportional to what we have offered, even though this is proportional, we would win more individually at the end.

I only know how to trade, but I am convinced that there are people reading this who know about the law, who have experience working in banking, programmers, marketing people. Well, I would like to be convinced with so many people who visit this forum.

Unfortunately since I announced that I wanted to do business, I have only received offers that entail an economic expense, and I am not stupid nor have I started yesterday, I am not going to send X thousand euros to create a fund, whose only information I have Offered is a PDF document with an assumed procedure. No references, no verifiable facts ... by this I do not mean, if you are one of those people who contacted me and you are reading it, that you said it was false.

Anyway, I just wanted to express certain thoughts and make it clear that I am open for business, that although the last year has been bad, the logic remains intact and I know I have something solid.
 
It is early to make claims, but a priori it could be said that scalping focuses on the percentage of success per trade rather than the profit or loss of each individual trade. My way of investing in the long term has a 90% probability of a failed trade , however that remaining 10% profitable ends up prevailing over the loss as can be seen in the development of my Darwin. Great opportunities are hidden in a barrier of losses and attacks to the mind of the trader.

However scalping, focusing on the number of hits, which is the other variable and can be perfectly valid when it comes to achieving long-term profitability, assumes that the Stop loss must be greater than the Tp, a negative r: r, added to the fact that commissions start to be a serious percentage of the loss.

It is actually the wet dream of the brokers, which makes me question the system given the conflict of interest and the understandable high promotion of the brokers towards this system. However, I always test things, just an observation.

So unlike long trades with good R: R and short stop loss, where a large continued movement is sought in the same direction, given the negative R: R of scalping, volatility should be taken into account instead of direction of the price. Scalping is arguably the equivalent of buying and selling option volatility or option straddles.

That is, instead of looking for long and sustained movements, the absence of continued movement is sought, a market in range whose maximum range is lower than the stop loss, so that the price is trapped between the consecutive take profits.

I say this because there seems to be a mistake with the concept of scalping. If I open a trade with a take profit higher than my stop when entering a trend and I take 10 pips when later, following the trend, I could have caught 100, am I scalping? No, I'm just refusing to take more profits in favor of a quick payoff.
 
1606124269283.png



The last trade (in demo, again, it is a real-time backtest whose objective is to incorporate some scalping into my darwin) is still going. As can be seen, there is a successive stop loss hunting attempt (the second pattern) that only goes a few pips beyond the previous low. This is the most typical thing in the world, so from my point of view moving to BE should be done once the price has taken off a lot.

As you can see in the image, I only use two indicators, the trend and the patterns, and more than indicators, they are indications.

It's the same strategy as the general one, of course the general one being much more filtered.

I do not know the harmonic patterns, nor any new form of new analysis, the last time I used something more than simple patterns, it was indicators (yes, I passed that phase too) and it was years ago. In fact, I discovered the existence of such "harmonic patterns" relatively recently, and I don't need them. This is why I like to intentionally stay away from the majority. People in trading groups adopt sheepish behavior with a constant echo chamber that progressively becomes more and more idiotic, and when their accounts are at zero they can excuse each other in their circlejerking.

Anyway, I would like to take the opportunity to affirm this position with facts and show you my tradingview profile, that is https://www.tradingview.com/u/jonfuentesX/ .

You can see how you don't need anything more than simple patterns and ideas. Look at my analysis and the hit ratio, it could be said that I usually get it right.

www.tradingview.com

BACK TO THE MOON? for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by jonfuentesX

After a resounding fall not only in bitcoin, but also in nasdaq, a double bottom pattern appears close to the uptrend line. Has it hit the ground? Personally I would wait to see how it unfolds before making an entry.
www.tradingview.com www.tradingview.com

In this bitcoin analysis I only observed a double bottom pattern at an old support. No need to wait for the moons to align, or for any website to throw good news,The simple pattern is there, just buy and accept that you can lose.

Unfortunately I did not operate this analysis, I had the funds allocated in darwinex and some options.

As you can see, you don't need a government AI to make money in trading. All the gurus and course vendors will take me to the jugular, but like practically any activity that generates a conflict of interest, that is, that there is money involved, it will be made intentionally complicated to drive the observer crazy, and then offer a wonderful course with esoteric concepts.
 
I have made a change regarding take profit, I leave it here publicly to review it later, although I also keep a personal physical diary.

Reviewing the previous positive operations, there have been some of more than 5 months ago that STILL TODAY would continue to be open giving profit into monstrous R: Rs.

My current view of trading is that the goal is to open trades until the direction is correct, and when the direction is correct, the trade should be stretched as far as possible.

When you fail a trade, you know it quickly, the direction changes in the first hours maximum, but when the profit has already taken off from the beginning, the objective of the trader is to keep that trade alive as long as possible.

Perhaps in a higher TF a pattern appears that gives signs of closure, or the trend loses power, or a economic new that can change the situation. Anyway, you have to keep that trade giving profits.

So since the beginning of this week, I no longer use take profit, but trailing stop.

The concept of take profit does not seem appropriate to me, I do not like to close a trade that is giving benefits. On the contrary, when it is losing, I seek to close it as soon as possible.

And it is curious because apparently many new traders act in the opposite way: they do not close their losses but instead exit the market as soon as they have some profit.

These are two different logics and I personally bet on the first.
 
I am designing a trading course in which, based on my personal experiences and results, I am sure that many people will be able to increase their level of trading.

In part I am somewhat embarrassed to undertake this task because by the time I offer a course, I am already indirectly part of this cast of youtube/facebook ad idiot salesmen who have never traded, but anyway.

At first I was hesitant to do it because obviously, if I make the general level of competition go up, I'm shooting myself in my own leg, but after all, trading is mental.

If I want to speak in public, I can go to a speech therapist, take gesticulation classes and so on, but if once on the stage my mind freezes, preventing me from correctly executing those skills, the technical aspect is useless for me.

In the same way that speaking in front of 10,000 people requires one level of experience and psychology, and speaking in front of 1,000,000 million requires another, no matter the strategy or technical level of a trader who is capable of trading with 10,000, trading with a million is a completely different situation.

And since psychology is not something that can be taught, but rather it is the responsibility of each one to plunge into these situations out of comfort, I am not afraid, from a selfish point of view, that offering my knowledge could affect me negatively.
 
community.darwinex.com

Darwinex - The Trader Exchange

The online brokerage that allows sophisticated traders to trade the market and investors to back them.
community.darwinex.com community.darwinex.com

The changes made in May seem to be having results now, 7 months later.

MDU is in its best month since its creation, although the operations have not been closed, however the "wick" of the month is a new high and since I put a lot of work into it, I'm satisfied.

I also had no plans to close them, personally I like to follow the well-worn mantra of letting profits run.

The changes in May were basically two, an analysis of the take profit vs the maximum extension of the price before it returned and hit a theoretical stop loss. I found that I was closing the trade too early, so I increased the TP to the average maximum extension I had found. Also I analyzed the setups that had better results and simply stopped carrying out those with low R:R.
 
When I close these last operations I will change the risk from 2 to 1%.

After changing the take profit and reducing the times it is reached, 2% is too much risk, let me explain:

The further into the drawdown you are, the more difficult it is to get out. Two examples:

I start from a capital of 100 euros and I risk 10% in each operation, I lose 3 times, the result is 72. Now I need a profit of 38% to return to 100 : 8% more than the initial loss.

I risk 5% and lose 3, result 85.7, I need 17% : 2% more than the initial loss.

Although 10% is twice the risk of 5%, the difference between the extra percentages needed to return to pre-lost capital is not linear. In this case it is 4 times more with 10% compared to 5%, something very significant. As the drawdown increases, it is exponentially greater.

I think that with 2% and this very specific risk management, this variable can negatively affect the result.

Investors can still double their risk through darwinex.
 
www.darwinex.com

Darwinex - Connecting Traders with Investors

FinTech, Asset Manager and Broker that fast-track Traders and introduce Investors to back their trading strategies.
www.darwinex.com www.darwinex.com

MDU the 9th in Darwinia at the moment. Although the maximum allocation would be 135,000 euros, it would be limited to 50,000 because I have little capital in the account, which is a shame.

Anyway, in case of receiving this possibility, I could hire some freelancers to develop many of the ideas that I want to implement in the system. These are automatable elements that would help me in my trading and the results would be much better, especially from a point of view of less risk.

It's funny as well as disturbing that ten years ago I chose the nickname "predator" to end up on a platform called darwinex that refers to the darwinian process between predators and preys. Fate is ironic sometimes.
 
jonfuentesx said:
www.darwinex.com

Darwinex - Connecting Traders with Investors

FinTech, Asset Manager and Broker that fast-track Traders and introduce Investors to back their trading strategies.
www.darwinex.com www.darwinex.com

MDU the 9th in Darwinia at the moment. Although the maximum allocation would be 135,000 euros, it would be limited to 50,000 because I have little capital in the account, which is a shame.

Anyway, in case of receiving this possibility, I could hire some freelancers to develop many of the ideas that I want to implement in the system. These are automatable elements that would help me in my trading and the results would be much better, especially from a point of view of less risk.

It's funny as well as disturbing that ten years ago I chose the nickname "predator" to end up on a platform called darwinex that refers to the darwinian process between predators and preys. Fate is ironic sometimes.
Click to expand...


In the end I finished in 14th place with an allocation of 50,000 euros since I do not have the maximum in the account required for the maximum prize.

There is still room to optimize trading, in addition to being able to use the commissions to develop several ideas that I have written and need to be programmed. I'm testing a timing that can double the R: R to 16: 1, but it's still experimental.

I have not even finished in the top ten and that hurts me, but it motivates me to keep improving, so you can expect to see improvements between now and the next three months.
 
Changelog for all (potential) investors:

- Back to fixed TP:

I've been going through the history and found that actually fixed TP is superior to trailing.

Although it would make sense to think that running profits gives more profit than cutting them, the reality is that from time to time there are spikes in the price that they take out of the market. It does not make sense from economic theory, they are simply institutional traps. There is no doubt about this fact anymore. In all trading forums there are always people who say that the price has touched its stop and immediately turn around, that it seems someone is watching them. Indeed, you are being watched, or rather, predicted.

It is better to have the stop loss well away and safe from these traps, than not to go, for example in a sale, moving it little by little with a trailing and at the end being thrown away from the market in an artificial price rise that immediately falls back to lower levels .

- Added some lower R:R entries:

From certain scalping analysis(which you can consult in this same post on previous pages) I have concluded a series of profitable setups of lower R: R, but don't be scared, the R: R of the minimum setup is still at 1:4. I have decided to increase this volume of operations because it is more profitable to do some less optimal operations than to leave more unused margin in the account.

- Bit less SL

After analyzing the history, I have managed to reduce the stop loss by 20%.



That's all, cheers.
 
Hey there, maybe someone has seen a big withdrawal from the darwinex account, but there's no problem.

I am moving towards cryptocurrencies and letting a parcial ammount in the darwin project. Cheers.
 
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