[DARWIN] ILR by IlIlIlIlI

[CavaliereVerde]

ILR is the brand new darwin by my old friend @IlIlIlIlI
->https://www.darwinex.com/darwin/ILR
@IlIlIlIlI was a very active member on old community and has a deep knowledge of the darwinian stuff.🎖️🎖️

Here is you new space, welcome to our new home and good luck with your trading!
💪

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Today's screenshot as starting point and first picture of ILR

 

[CavaliereVerde]

Can you tell something about the strategy? Logic, timeframe, expected results...

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

The strategy is as simple - or as hard to describe - as written on the Darwin. Pure discretionairy trading based on a chart with 3 standard indicators (with my own special settings). I can and do also run it on my smartphone.
I'm looking up several timeframes between 1 min and 1 day and decide which direction is to trade, which asset (only NDX or GDAXI CFDs) and which timeframe. I also calculate take profit levels on that timeframe and usually use them on the positions.

A position is only entered if I have enough time to control the open position.

As long as the decision looks correct on the relevant timeframe, I hold the position. If that is not clear anymore or there are severe doubts, it is closed ASAP.

I don't have a defined expectation for the results. I'm fine with permanent at least 1-2 % per month, usually it's more.

The current handicaps of this strategy are:
- time effort to control open positions
- cannot be automated because of using different time frames and "fuzzy" signals

To manage the Darwin has two additional challenges:
- the 10 minutes rule which crashes my OS attribute (by entering a trade earlier and planning the closing time - besides that does not work always)
- the VaR increase when trading longer time frames. (I started the account trading only the 1 minute timeframe)

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

And now the first month as Darwin is over with these results:

I'm satisfied that I could close January with profit.
After hard fights on Wednesday and Thursday last week, the metrics now got typical or realistic values.
All I wanted on Wednesday was to get the investor account also on a new ATH because it was missing 0,3 % while the trading account had a new ATH, now it is missing 1.6 % .
The DD is blamed with an exploding VaR - I'm curious, how long it will take to get it back below 10.

On the other hand these "damaged" metrics give me the freedom to trade better - not regarding any optimizations or rules for improvement anymore.

Trading for fun and the trading account first - Darwinex metrics second.
DarwinIA will come anytime if the D-Score is greater 40.

 

[TLN]

And now the first month as Darwin is over with these results:
View attachment 295438

View attachment 295439

I'm satisfied that I could close January with profit.
After hard fights on Wednesday and Thursday last week, the metrics now got typical or realistic values.
All I wanted on Wednesday was to get the investor account also on a new ATH because it was missing 0,3 % while the trading account had a new ATH, now it is missing 1.6 % .
The DD is blamed by an exploding VaR - I'm curious, how long it will take to get it back below 10.

On the other hand these "damaged" metrics give me the freedom to trade better - not regarding any optimizations or rules for improvement anymore.

Trading for fun and the trading account first - Darwinex metrics second.
DarwinIA will come anytime if the D-Score is greater 40.

Cool bro! Keep up with this profit in Feb!

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Interim report (also if it is just the 3rd of this month )
After another ugly fighting day my Darwin ILR got a new ATH tonight with a nice value:

 

[JustNextLevel]

The current handicap of this strategy are:
- time effort to control open positions
- cannot be automated because of using different time frames and "fuzzy" signals

I don't think it is impossible to automate your trading strategy and to create an EA.

I thought so too, 5 months ago......, but some of the guys on the Mql5.com platform can develop just about anything you can think of for your EA, and for as little as $30.

I use 5 different indicators in 5 different timeframes. (Ranging from 10minutes to the weekly timeframes)
I have the option to change them to any timeframe I wish to use.

The "fuzzy" signals you can adjust that 2 requirements (or 3) need to be met, for it not to be that fuzzy.
You can ask that you can adjust the ranges and parameters you want to select for trades to be executed.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

I thought so too, 5 months ago......, but some of the guys on the Mql5.com platform can develop just about anything you can think of for your EA, and for as little as $30.

But that would mean that I had to disclose my full knowledge about the strategy.
There are rule based setups in my trading which could be improved by an EA as I don't look into the screen the whole day to find the best entry point.

The "fuzzy" signals you can adjust that 2 requirements (or 3) need to be met, for it not to be that fuzzy.

You could do it partially, but not fully.
The key is my discipline which cannot be solved by rules.
Do you know what the toughest challenges are for my discipline since end of January when I decided to trade only for the results without regarding the metrics? To decide not to trade in a situation where I see chances. That happens more than once per week. But not to trade is always better than a losing trade.

Edit:
And I want to say thank you to my early investors, I am really impressed by their confidence in my young Darwin.

 

[JustNextLevel]

But that would mean that I had to discclose my full knowledge about the strategy.
There are rule based setups in my trading which could be improved by an EA as I don't look into the screen the whole day to find the best entry point.

To a degree yes, but you can formulate it so only you know the true settings that work. You should have them develop it so all the parameters are adjustable. (Timeframes, K-Values, D-Values, X-Values, Y-value, Time periods etc)

Let's say for your buying criteria, you use MACD, Stochastic, Current Price vs. Moving Average, Small MA vs Larger MA, RSI, Volatility.

With the MACD for instance you would want 5 settings to change in their full ranges
1. FastLength (0-100)
2. Slowlength (0-200)
3. Source (Open, Close, Mid price, Ml2, Ml3 etc)
4. Signal Length (1-500)
5. Time Frame (1min to weekly)

Now maybe your trigger for a buy with MACD is when the fast length crosses the Slow length in a certain time frame and signal length.

But you also have a 2nd criteria. You also want the Slow length to be in a certain range, so the developer will also need to add 2 high low parameters so the Slowlength needs to be maybe between 20-40 for example. You roughly have about (100x200x7x 500x22)*(100*100) = 15 Trillion combinations with just 1 Indicator. Add 4-6 more such indicators (or the same) in different timeframes, you are looking at an infinite amount of combinations, that would be near impossible to uncover. And only you have the right combination.

I would also add in 1 or 2 extra indicators that do not have anything to do with your strategy. Also ask that each indicator can be switched on or off. This way you can select which indicators you want to use. I added a volatility Indicator as a semi-dummy, but it is now extremely useful to prevent trading in Darwinex "High Risk Assets" and I also use it as my Master Stop Loss in the event of market crashes or real big price swings.

Getting an EA has been one of my best decisions yet, by not having to look at every screen all day long. You'll go crazy....🤪

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

not having to look at every screen all day long. You'll go crazy....

I define trading sessions against that. Sometimes they last significantly longer than planned, but not today

 

[JustNextLevel]

You could do it partially, but not fully.
The key is my discipline which cannot be solved by rules.
Do you know what the toughest challenges are for my discipline since end of January when I decided to trade only for the results without regarding the metrics? To decide not to trade in a situation where I see chances. That happens more than once per week. But not to trade is always better than a losing trade.

Agree.....and you have good discipline.

And I want to say thank you to my early investors, I am really impressed by their confidence in my young Darwin.

You're welcome..... it is showing in your results. Keep up the good work.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

My Darwin ILR closed February 2021 without a losing day and more than 10% profit:

On the detailed view (4H) you can get an impression about the trading sessions:

Yesterday was the only hard fighting day in February and the only one with a higher intraday drawdown.

As I wrote on January 29th, I focus on trading and not on the metrics since end of January and the results confirm that it could be the right way.
Currently the Darwin shows a rotten Rs attribute. The reason is the increase in the trade size on the trading account which is reduced for the Darwin and investors related the VaR. The Rs attribute should recover in March out of the red into the orange area.

 

[TLN]

My Darwin ILR closed February 2021 without a losing day and more than 10% profit:

View attachment 297005
View attachment 297009
View attachment 297006

On the detailed view (4H) you can get an impression about the trading sessions:
View attachment 297008

Yesterday was the only hard fighting day in February and the only one with a higher intraday drawdown.

As I wrote on January 29th, I focus on trading and not on the metrics since end of January and the results confirm that it could be the right way.
Currently the Darwin shows a rotten Rs attribute. The reason is the increase in the trade size on the trading account which is reduced for the Darwin and investors related the VaR. The Rs attribute should recover in March out of the red into the orange area.

Your equity curve is almost 45 degree uptrend and right after a big loss, a big win recover all. It makes me think right away to grid trading.
I'm quite sure that you are using one kind of them.
Is it OK to manage the risk?

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Your equity curve is almost 45 degree uptrend and right after a big loss, a big win recover all. It makes me think right away to grid trading.
I'm quite sure that you are using one kind of them.
Is it OK to manage the risk?

It cannot be grid trading (which also implies hedging) as the trading account and the Darwin are flat between the trading sessions.
You'll see that if I publish the tax data on my portfolio as there were no swaps to pay. Also the investors could confirm that if they read their monthly tax report.
I always trade only one direction. I thought about hedging during an elder trading session for other reasons, but I didn't trade a hedged position until now.

On Thursday - what you called the "big loss" - I started with closing two times 3 trades with losses. Not my best day ..
After that I stopped trading GDAXI for that day. That's part of my discipline.
The account was flat until there were a couple of winning trades in NDX which recovered the loss.
Flat again.
Then I entered the first trades for my bigger NDX position in the afternoon, but 1 hour too early and the market ran against me for more than 1 hour. It took 2 additional hours to bring the complete position into profit. I increased the position size on opportunities with additional trades (all in my trading direction!) and closed them when the move slowed down. This is more the intention to trade chances in a second position parallel than ideas of averaging down or other strategies.
Of course I watch and know my daily result (open and closed trades) while positions are open.
If I think the market will not take my direction, I close my positions immediately regardless of the result. But I usually leave a position open if the next decision would be a trade in the same direction.
It's possible that you see parallels between my trading behaviour and bad or dangerous attitudes like grid trading, but that is not my intention and IMO I am far away from the typical instructions for grid trading.

You can see the results on the Darwin if you select the 1W view and zoom in the chart of my Darwin.

My risk management is mainly based on the answer to the question: "How long will it take to get the next all time high?"
And I want to show more than one in a calendar month.

 

[trilobite]

Congrats on a superb February return. Looked to see where ILR was in Darwinia, but alas, not there.
Further investigation found ILR is disqualified due to correlation with Darwin VAW. The equity curves are not even similar.
Ridiculous!

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

Congrats on a superb February return. Looked to see where ILR was in Darwinia, but alas, not there.
Further investigation found ILR is disqualified due to correlation with Darwin VAW. The equity curves are not even similar.
Ridiculous!

Thank you for your congratulation.

ILR is in the first place disqualified for DarwinIA because of the rotten Rs attribute (currently 1.24), but a value above 3 is needed to be a candidate for the competition.
The reason for the rotten Rs attribute is my decision end of January to increase position sizes, i.e. to allow more trades to build a position. VaR exploded and Rs dropped down until today.
I hope Rs will recover in March.

https://help.darwinex.com/what-is-darwinia#eligibility

As it is nearly impossible to come in the top 120 of DarwinIA with a D-Score less than 35 (usually you need 40 with a good profit to come close to rank 120), it does not really touch me. But I would be curious where it could be found in February to see the progress against January where ILR finished the month on rank

.

 

[trilobite]

Thanks for the clarification, guess I was misreading the correlation table and that it would say "both" if low RS had not kicked you out. I was looking at the attached image and drawing the wrong conclusion, and getting angry on your behalf

 

[CavaliereVerde]

@IlIlIlIlI
What is you expected annualized return and expected max DD ?

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

What is you expected annualized return and expected max DD ?

As I wrote on January 19th here, I'm happy with 1-2 % return every month - without exception.
That is still valid and it implies that you have a new all time high every month.
At the end of a year that should be between 15 and 25 % annual return.
IMO that is very competetive to the majority of the most invested Darwins.
If I add this goal to the performance of January and February, ILR should show at least 30% at the end of the year, more than 50% would be really great with the 3.25% - 6.5% Target VaR. The current VaR ratio is 0.24 (reduced from 0.26 on Thursday night), and that number is more stable than the VaR you see.

The existing DD of -8.21 % should never be exceeded. It was made with a VaR close to 6.5 %.
As I intend to trade only intraday in the future, it should be possible to hold this target.
IMO this DD is enough - also for the acceptance of potential investors.