[DARWIN] EOD by hefoba - hekenberg

[trilobite]

This is true, it is a common behaviour of very loss averse strategies but what matters is that there is a risk limiter that acts as a fuse.
On the underlying strategy the engines were halted reaching 17% of loss as stated by @hefoba .

The problem is the VaR has doubled in a short period, therefore recovery (should there be one) will take a very long time. Pretty much anyone that had invested since Darwin publication will now be sitting on a loss. Also anybody looking at that equity chart will see the falling knife and look elsewhere.

 

[TLN]

This is true, it is a common behaviour of very loss averse strategies but what matters is that there is a risk limiter that acts as a fuse.
On the underlying strategy the engines were halted reaching 17% of loss as stated by @hefoba .

Yep.
But, no any investors want to see their profit in 9 month blown in 2 weeks.
Too dangerous. Especially with support of VaR, the damage becomes 2 times bigger. T-T

 

[CavaliereVerde]

no any investors want to see their profit in 9 month blown in 2 weeks.

What investors want to see is pretty different from reality... 😁

The DD of the beginning of 2020 has been recovered in 3 months.
This one will be recovered in 3-6 months.
Falling knife or falling plane a 15% loss is the same when happens in 2 days or in 2 months.
I think now the picture is more complete, it is the reason I always wait 2 years native to invest.

 

[TLN]

This one will be recovered in 3-6 months

Let's wait and see.
This damage is much bigger than the one in 2020.

 

[TLN]

Let's wait and see.
This damage is much bigger than the one in 2020.

Hello @hefoba @hekenberg,
Sorry for make noise in your thread.
I do not intent to distract you or anything else.
Just want to discuss how big this damage is.
So, just focus on your trading and ignore us.

 

[hefoba]

Hello @hefoba @hekenberg,
Sorry for make noise in your thread.
I do not intent to distract you or anything else.
Just want to discuss how big this damage is.
So, just focus on your trading and ignore us.

Hi,

I will get back to you. And explain more.
System act as I wrote.
I have one SL that get triggered and it is automatic. Nothing I will act on.

To many says they have automatic close then ignore the close.
I plan to reactivate the trading on Monday and I also explain to the investors I know what occurs during this wave.

DarwinEx Risk tool change my lotsize up and down on daily basis. When in DD I thought only decrease and not increase occurs but I was wrong.

 

[IlIlIlIlI]

DarwinEx Risk tool change my lotsize up and down on daily basis.

Please proof that with screenshots of VaR, Target VaR, VaR ratio and size (last three from your divergence monitor).

Size data on the trades are not always correct, you see that if you compare buy and sell operations of the same trade.
Target VaR starts running against VaR daily to keep VaR ratio stable which controls the (lot)size after the algos decided that youlost control about VaR:
"In summary, the Risk Manager tolerates changes in Var up to 2 times (rises or falls) with the aim to better adapt to the trader’s risk management.".
I didn't find a definition about their tolerance before triggering the dance of the Target VaR.
If your VaR continues to increase, the VaR ratio decreases when the Target VaR is set to the maximum of 6.5. And you are caught by this value for a while.

 

[ASGTrade]

The amount of confusion still surrounding the risk engine and VAR after all these years says a lot.

 

[hefoba]

Please proof that with screenshots of VaR, Target VaR, VaR ratio and size (last three from your divergence monitor).

Size data on the trades are not always correct, you see that if you compare buy and sell operations of the same trade.
Target VaR starts running against VaR daily to keep VaR ratio stable which controls the (lot)size after the algos decided that youlost control about VaR:
"In summary, the Risk Manager tolerates changes in Var up to 2 times (rises or falls) with the aim to better adapt to the trader’s risk management.".
I didn't find a definition about their tolerance before triggering the dance of the Target VaR.
If your VaR continues to increase, the VaR ratio decreases when the Target VaR is set to the maximum of 6.5. And you are caught by this value for a while.

The amount of confusion still surrounding the risk engine and VAR after all these years says a lot.

Hi,

I will not try to "fool" or "adjust" my trading. To many try todo that and get hammered.

Information I sent to my investors I know ( If you are one investor please PM so I put on the list ):

On Monday will we reactivate the trading. We will add on Monday one "trend direction" module. 3 or 4 last DDs are based on quick trends against us. EOD can manage it but generate DDs and DarwinEx Risk tool activates and returns for investors are not good. DD can't be avoid but with this module then we will get less DDs and the last 2 would not occurs. Just ask questions or PM if you wonder something.


Comment on DarwinEx Risk tool:
This week we had E/gbp and E/ca. When we close the E/G trade then lotsize on E/Ca went to "double" then after 8 hr fall back to orginal size. I think it is odd.

 

[CavaliereVerde]

The DD on the darwin is lower and not so different from the DD of the underlying strategy so why blame var and risk manager?
IMO the risk manager worked pretty well in this case.

 

[hefoba]

The DD on the darwin is lower and not so different from the DD of the underlying strategy so why blame var and risk manager?
IMO the risk manager worked pretty well in this case.

Hi,

I do not blame Risk Manager. And will make EOD perform good.

//H

 

[Gargamel]

Investors will just have to learn to wait patiently for significant DD to enter darwins or learn to read trading journal and recognise which darwins have potential for such drops.
On a positive note,darwin CIS is going strong after such episode.

 

[hefoba]

Investors will just have to learn to wait patiently for significant DD to enter darwins or learn to read trading journal and recognise which darwins have potential for such drops.
On a positive note,darwin CIS is going strong after such episode.

Hi,

Not first time or last time I will have DDs.
Not first time or last time I will recover.

New trades on Monday.

 

[TLN]

Hi,

Not first time or last time I will have DDs.
Not first time or last time I will recover.

New trades on Monday.

Let's see.
I have my own prediction/feeling for EOD same as my friends.

 

[hefoba]

Hi,

Quick post from us trading the EOD account.
We made 2 changes since the big DD we had 1.5 months ago.

1- Main mode : Trade only in the trend. Before we accept trades in any market situation. Trend / Range / counter trend.
2- When market push very hard. Like CAD last week/Friday then the EA can take counter trends trades. Those trades are not in the market to long and some are closed under 15min.

Trading like this will avoid big DD's.

Good luck with your trading.

Best Regards
H.

Hi,

I will get back to you. And explain more.
System act as I wrote.
I have one SL that get triggered and it is automatic. Nothing I will act on.

To many says they have automatic close then ignore the close.
I plan to reactivate the trading on Monday and I also explain to the investors I know what occurs during this wave.

DarwinEx Risk tool change my lotsize up and down on daily basis. When in DD I thought only decrease and not increase occurs but I was wrong.

 

[hefoba]

As the Robot pick only trades with good / correct trend then EA also trades trades in less traded pairs.
As investor you are now even more "multi" currency traders.

Here is a list of nbr of trades and pairs EA traded last 30 days.

 

[hefoba]

Hi,

Quick post from us trading the EOD account.
We made 2 changes since the big DD we had 1.5 months ago.

1- Main mode : Trade only in the trend. Before we accept trades in any market situation. Trend / Range / counter trend.
2- When market push very hard. Like CAD last week/Friday then the EA can take counter trends trades. Those trades are not in the market to long and some are closed under 15min.

Trading like this will avoid big DD's.

Good luck with your trading.

Best Regards
H.

Hi,

We can see some changes how the EA act.
Here how it traded before we focused on trends.

Here how it is now. Let see how it goes in the future.

 

[hefoba]

Hi,

We can see some changes how the EA act.
Here how it traded before we focused on trends.
View attachment 300694

Here how it is now. Let see how it goes in the future.
View attachment 300695

Max. Positive/negative excursion per trade, including open trades. ( Before and after the change )

 

[Forexintradiadarwin]

This is one of large cap darwins presented in Darwinex weekly news letter..., just crazy. You can do it with your money, if you don't have investors...but with 1.8Million...

 

[Emanita]