Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[Resolve]

GBP/USD: The Triangle That Could Define the Rest of 2026

The pound just closed its strongest week against the dollar in months, ending July up more than 1% and holding just below $1.35. Two factors are driving the move. First, political risk has faded: the UK appointed its seventh prime minister in a decade, and the new government's pledge of fiscal discipline has reassured markets. Second, the Bank of England surprised with a more hawkish tone than expected—policymakers voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but three members pushed for a hike, a stronger signal of resolve than markets had priced in.

The dollar, meanwhile, has had a rough few sessions. Following the Fed's decision to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the path ahead, leaving investors questioning whether the central bank is doing enough to bring inflation back to target. The dollar index posted its worst weekly performance in three months as a result, though roughly two-thirds of the market still expects a September hike.

With both central banks striking cautiously hawkish tones but offering little forward guidance, GBP/USD's next move looks set to hinge on incoming US labor data.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

AUD/NZD: A Mixed Jobs Report Meets a Critical Chart Level

The Aussie and the Kiwi are telling two very different monetary policy stories right now, and the divergence is starting to show up clearly in the cross. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% in August, but the hawkish tone that once dominated has faded fast: Q2 inflation cooled to 3.9% from 4.1%, prompting Goldman Sachs to abandon its call for one final hike this year. Markets now price next to no chance of an August move, with only roughly even odds of a hike by November.

Across the Tasman, the RBNZ is playing a different game entirely. Having already hiked to 2.50% in June, the central bank has kept its guidance firmly hawkish, and markets are now almost fully pricing a further 25bp increase in September. Wednesday's employment data added an interesting twist: employment change q/q beat expectations sharply at 0.5% against 0.1% forecast, yet the unemployment rate also rose to 5.6% from 5.4%, above forecasts—a genuinely mixed print that complicates the otherwise hawkish RBNZ narrative.

The result: a Reserve Bank stepping back from further tightening against one still leaning hawkish, though now facing a labor market sending conflicting signals of its own.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Euro and Pound Hold Gains as Markets Assess the US Employment Outlook

The euro and the pound continue to trade higher against the US dollar following last week's Federal Reserve meeting. As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future monetary policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data. This cautious stance failed to provide fresh support for the dollar, while yesterday's weaker US labour market figures added further downward pressure. According to the latest ADP report, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs, well below forecasts of 68,000 and the previous month's 95,000. Although the S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations, the ISM report painted a more mixed picture: the headline services index edged down to 54.1, while the employment component fell to 47.4, signalling continued cooling in the labour market. As a result, investors increased their expectations of a broader slowdown in the US economy, allowing both the euro and the pound to maintain their upward momentum.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

FTSE 100 Analysis: Strong BAE Systems Earnings Support the Index Rally Near Record Highs

On 30 July, BAE Systems reported its first-half 2026 financial results, with sales rising 9% year-on-year to £15.8 billion. Underlying operating profit increased by 11% to £1.7 billion, while underlying earnings per share climbed 13% to 38.9 pence. The company also raised its full-year outlook for sales, operating profit and EPS, supported by a record order backlog of £84 billion following £16.4 billion in newly secured contracts. On the same day, the FTSE 100 reached a fresh intraday high, helped by gains in mining stocks amid stronger commodity prices and positive momentum across industrial companies after encouraging earnings releases. The advance came alongside renewed focus on developments surrounding Iran and expectations ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

US Dollar Index (DXY): Two Months of Consolidation, One NFP Away From a Breakout

The dollar heads into today's session with one of the most important catalysts of the summer on deck: the July Non-Farm Payrolls report, due at 12:30 PM UTC. Economists expect around 95,000 jobs added, down from June's already weak 57,000 print, with the unemployment rate seen ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3%.

The backdrop makes this release particularly consequential. At its July meeting, the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but the tone was notably hawkish: three policymakers pushed for a hike rather than any discussion of cuts. That stance has kept the dollar broadly supported, even as recent JOLTS data pointed to cooling labor demand and futures markets trimmed the odds of a September hike to around 59%, down from 67% just days earlier.

Today's numbers will likely decide which narrative wins out. A stronger-than-expected print, particularly alongside firm wage growth, would reinforce the Fed's hawkish resolve and could send the dollar testing higher levels. A weaker report, especially with downward revisions to prior months, would revive rate-cut expectations and put fresh pressure on the greenback heading into the rest of August.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

3 EVENTS IN FOCUS | 10-14 AUGUST

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

Key topics:

US Inflation Rate
The first major event is the US inflation report on 12 August. Markets currently see a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, but a weaker-than-expected inflation reading could reduce those expectations and put pressure on the US dollar. June’s softer inflation data already triggered a sharp dollar decline, while some analysts expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged for now and consider cuts next year.

UK GDP Data
The UK GDP report on 13 August will be closely watched by sterling traders. Markets will focus on monthly, quarterly and annual growth figures. A significant surprise in the data could increase volatility across GBP pairs, with weaker growth potentially weighing on the pound.

US PPI
The US Producer Price Index, also released on 13 August, will provide further insight into inflation pressures before they reach consumers. June’s weaker-than-expected PPI and Core PPI readings pushed the dollar lower, and another soft report could strengthen expectations of easing inflation and add further pressure on the US currency.

With several high-impact releases packed into the week, disciplined risk management will remain essential. Geopolitical developments continue to influence commodity and currency markets, while economic data could generate sharp short-term price swings.

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

GBP/USD Analysis: Weak US Labour Market Data Pushes the Pair Higher

The pair gained momentum following the release of the US labour market report for July 2026 on 7 August. Non-farm employment fell by 23,000 jobs, compared with a forecast for an increase of 80,000 jobs among economists surveyed by Reuters. Employment data for May and June were also revised downwards, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The dollar responded with broad-based weakness. Earlier, on 30 July, the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 3.75% by a six-to-three vote, with three members of the committee voting for a rate hike. The regulator’s decision also highlighted inflation risks associated with volatility in energy prices.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

USD/JPY: Was Intervention Enough to Change the Trend?

USD/JPY finds itself at the center of one of the most dramatic currency stories this summer. Having weakened to a four-decade low near ¥164, the yen was pulled back sharply after Japan and the US carried out a coordinated intervention, with Tokyo reportedly spending around $34 billion in a single session to defend its currency. The move briefly pushed the pair toward ¥155, though the yen has since given back some of those gains, trading back near ¥158 as doubts persist over how long intervention alone can hold.

The underlying driver remains the wide gap between US and Japanese interest rates, made worse by rebounding oil prices following renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Markets are now watching for a possible BoJ hike in September, encouraged by six straight months of rising real wages, while the Fed's own July dissents—three policymakers pushed for a hike over a hold—keep US rates firmly in the driver's seat too.

With both central banks now genuinely in play, USD/JPY's next move looks set to hinge on which side moves first: Tokyo's rate decision, or Washington's next data-driven signal.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.