IKOFX Daily Market Analysis

[team.ikofx]

EURCAD Needs To Break 1.4760 To Get Going

The Euro traded lower against the Canadian dollar during this past week. However, the EURCAD pair seems to be now stabilizing around the 1.4700 support level. There is a classic breakout pattern forming on the hourly timeframe for the pair. There is a trend line formed, which has acted as a resistance for more than a couple of occasions. If the pair manages to clear the plotted trend line, then a move higher is possible in the near term.

Currently, the same trend line coincides with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last move lower from the 1.4954 high to the 1.4670 low. So, technically this trend line holds a lot importance in the short term. One important thing to note here is that the pair is now trading above the 100 hourly simple moving average, which can be considered as a positive sign. So, once the pair break the trend line resistance zone, then it might climb higher in no time.

The RSI on the hourly timeframe is also holding the 50 level nicely, which adds to the bullish pressure on the pair. A break and close above the 1.4760 level might take the pair towards the 38.2% fib level, followed by the 200 hourly SMA.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Moments ago, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment was released. The market was expecting a rise from 33.1 to 35.0. However, the outcome was a disappointing one. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 29.8. The Euro fell in an early reaction. It would be interesting to see whether it continues to trade lower in the coming hours or not.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD Eyes A Major Short-term Break

The British pound after testing the 1.70 resistance level a couple of times during this week moved back lower. However, the pair managed to find buyers around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last major move higher from the 1.6693 low to the recent high of 1.7011. The pair is now again testing the 1.70 barrier. It is important to note that there is a critical trend line connecting last swing highs, which is acting as a hurdle for the pair.

If the pair manages to break the mentioned trend line and settle above the 1.70 level, then a run towards the 1.7048 resistance level, which represents the previous swing high is possible in the short term. The RSI on the 4 hour timeframe is also around the extreme levels, which cannot be considered as a bullish sign. However, if buyers take control, then a break in the coming sessions cannot be denied.

One More Failure?
If the pair fails again to clear the 1.70 resistance level, then it could be discouraging for the sterling bulls. In that situation, a move back towards the 23.6% fib level would be on the cards. If sellers take control, then the pair might fall towards the 38.2% fib level, where buyers are expected to appear again.

The UK retail sales data will be released by the National Statistics later during the London session. The forecast is of 0.5% decline in the retail sales, and if the outcome exceeds the expectation, then the British pound can trade higher in the short term.

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Posted By IKOFX Technical Team: Online Forex Broker

 

[robert11]

aud nzd


On the daily chart, the price is inside a bullish channel and concurrently we see 1 harmonic patterns. According to the time being fulfilled, we are expecting to have a growth if the condition was good enough.

http://forex-fa14.blogspot.com/

 

[team.ikofx]

Negative Signals Indicate Losses To Extend For USDJPY

The US dollar continued its decline against most of its major counterparts including the Japanese yen. The USDJPY pair after creating a short-term top around the 102.40 resistance zone moved lower. There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly timeframe for the pair. The US dollar sellers were seen aggressive during yesterday’s trading sessions, and as a result the pair breached the highlighted trend line. This particular break might be seen as crucial, as it has the potential to take the pair back towards the last low of 101.60 level.

New Weekly Low?
The broken trend line acted as a resistance yesterday, and might continue to hold the upside in the pair. If the pair breaks the 76.4% fib level of the last leg higher from the 101.60 low, then it might open the doors for a test of previous low. If sellers take control, then it could create a new weekly low as well. One important thing to note here is that the pair is trading below both major simple moving averages on the hourly timeframe – 100 and 200, which can be considered as a bearish sign in the short term.

If the pair fails bounces from the current levels, then it would be interesting to see whether it can close back above the broken trend line or not, which is also coinciding with the 100 hourly SMA. A break and close above the 100 SMA could take the pair back towards the previous swing high of 102.20 level.

The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which adds value to the bearish bias. As long as the pair is trading below the 100 hourly SMA more losses cannot be denied in the short term.

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[team.ikofx]

More Losses Ahead For USDCAD?

The Canadian dollar is trading higher against the US dollar, as improved inflation data tilted the market sentiment in favour of Canadian dollar especially against the US dollar. The USDCAD pair has breached an important bullish trend line support area. Moreover, the pair has closed below the 200-day simple moving average, which can be considered as a negative sign in the medium term. However, an important point to note here is that the pair is currently testing the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 1.0185 low to 1.1267 high. So, we might see buyers around the mentioned fib level.

If the USDCAD pair breaks the 50% fib level, then it would open the doors for a downside acceleration towards the 61.8% fib level. Any further losses should be limited considering the dovish stance of the Bank of Canada.

The RSI on the daily chart has reached the 30 level, which is an early-warning sign. The pair might hold the current levels, and retrace some of the recent losses. However, if the pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the broken 200-day SMA. If the pair settles above the same, then strong offers can be seen around the broken trend line support zone, which might act as a resistance now.

There are few economic releases scheduled later during the day in the US, including the US existing home sales data. Let’s see how the data plays out, and whether the pair can continue to hold the 50% fib level or not in the short term.

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[team.ikofx]

USDCHF Approaching A Critical Short-Term Break

The US dollar is forming a contracting triangle against the Swiss franc on the 30-minute timeframe. The USDCHF pair is currently flirting with the triangle support area, which is also coinciding with the 100 simple moving average (30M) at 0.8945. So, the mentioned support level holds a lot importance in the short term. However, the pair is also struggling to break the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.8995 high to 0.8912 low. The highlighted triangle is contracting, which means the pair is heading towards a critical break.

Currently, the 30M RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign. However, the market sentiment stiff does not favour more gains in the US dollar, as despite strong US manufacturing PMI and Existing home sales data it was unable to trade higher. Most of the major pairs are trading in a range or forming a breakout pattern like in the case of the USDCHF pair. If the pair breaks lower, then the 0.8920-30 support area might come into play, followed by a test of the previous low.

If the pair climbs higher from the current levels, then it might face hurdle around the triangle resistance trend line, which is also coinciding with the 200 SMA (30M). If it manages to clear the triangle to the high side, then a run towards the previous high is possible in the short term.

There are few important risk-events lined up later during the New York session, including the US new home sales data and CB consumer confidence. Both are expected to improve this time, and if that happens, then the US dollar might gain some traction in the coming sessions.

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[team.ikofx]

A Break Imminent in USDJPY

The US dollar is closing in for a break against the Japanese yen, as there is an important pattern forming on the hourly timeframe. There is a triangle forming, which might lead the pair lower or higher in the coming sessions. We have the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to be released later during the day by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which might spark a break in the USDJPY pair. Moreover, the US services PMI and durable goods orders data will also be released around the same time to add to the volatility.

The USDJPY pair has time and again bounced from the triangle support trend line. However, it has only increased the chance of a break lower in the pair. The pair is again trading around the same zone and below both important simple moving averages on the 4 hour timeframe – 100 and 200. This can be considered a negative sign. If the pair breaks the triangle support trend line and moves lower, then it might open the doors for a downside acceleration towards the last low of 101.60. The most important point to note here is that the recent economic data published in the US was impressive, which means catching a falling knife might not be a good idea.

Alternatively, if the pair bounces from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the 200 SMA (4H). Any further strength might take the pair towards the 50% fib level of last recent drop from the 102.16 high, followed by a test of the triangle resistance trend line.

The RSI is below the 50 level, which is not a good sign considering the current market sentiment and technical levels. Overall, a break is certainly on the cards in the short term.

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[team.ikofx]

Buying Dips Favoured in EURUSD

The Euro finally managed to clear an important range resistance yesterday against the US dollar post disappointing US GDP data. Currently, there is a trend line forming on the hourly timeframe for the EURUSD pair. The pair is consolidating recent gains, and it is possible that the pair might re-test the trend line support zone in the short term. It is important to note that the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 1.3582 low to 1.3650 high is around the 1.3617 level. The mentioned fib level also coincides with the trend line support area. So, the pair might gain bids around this area if it trades lower.

The 100 hourly simple moving average is also moving along the same trend line. So, it won’t be easy for the Euro sellers to take the EURUSD pair below the trend line. If they manage to do so, then a move back to the 200 hourly SMA is possible in the near term. Any further losses could take the pair back towards the 1.3560 swing support area where buyers will be tested again.

On the other hand, if the pair climbs from the current or a bit lower levels, then the recent high of 1.3650 could be tested, followed by the month high at 1.3670. A break above the month’s high might take the pair towards the 1.3700 resistance level.

US Jobless Claims And Personal Spending Data
The US initial jobless claims and personal spending data will be released later during the day. The US jobless claims are expected to fall by 2K. If the data disappoints again like the US GDP, then the US dollar might lose more ground against the Euro in the short term.

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[team.ikofx]

EURGBP Breaks Down; Eyes Previous Lows

The Euro fell sharply against the British pound during the yesterday’s London session. There was an important trend line on the hourly chart for the EURGBP pair. The Euro sellers managed to break the same trend line, as the pair traded lower. Now, the chance of a re-test of the previous low of 0.7958 has increased, as the pair has also cleared the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 0.7958 low to 0.8033 high. One more important thing to note here is that the pair is now trading below both 100 and 200 simple moving averages (1H), which can be considered as a negative sign.

Currently, the pair is flirting with the 61.8% fib retracement level. If the mentioned fib level gives way for more losses, then it would open the doors for a re-test of the previous low. If the pair manages to gain some bids and trades higher, then it might face resistance in the form of the 100 hourly SMA. More gains are feasible, but the broken trend line support area could now act as a resistance for the pair. So, it would be interesting to see whether the pair can succeed in breaking the mentioned resistance zones or not.

The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, but bouncing from the extreme levels. So, let’s wait and see whether RSI can clear the 50 level or not.

Euro Zone Consumer Sentiment
Later during the next Asian session, the Euro zone’s consumer sentiment will be released by the European Commission. The market is expecting a minor 0.10 point rise in the consumer confidence from -7.10 to -7.00. If the outcome exceeds the expectation, the Euro might trade higher in the near term.

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[team.ikofx]

USDJPY Breaks An Important Support Area; Eyes 100.80?

The US dollar is trading lower against the Japanese yen Intraday despite weak Japanese industrial production data. It is important to note that the USDJPY pair has breached a significant swing support area of 100.50. This break has opened the doors for further downside acceleration towards the previous low of 100.80. Currently, the pair is flirting with the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 100.80 low to 102.78 high. It looks like that the pair might clear the same and trade lower in the coming sessions. If the pair falls, then it would be interesting to see how the US dollar reacts around the 100.80 support level.

If somehow the pair manages to trade higher from the current levels, then the broken swing support area at 101.50 level might act as a hurdle for the pair. Any further strength might take the pair towards the 200 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart. More gains look difficult considering the current market sentiment, and there is a bearish trend line on the 4 hour chart as a well, which could act as a barrier for the pair on the upside. The mentioned trend line also coincides with the 100 SMA (4H). So, it holds a lot importance in the short to medium term.

The RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means the pair might correct a bit higher from the current levels. However, one cannot deny the fact that the break of the 101.50 level was crucial for the pair.

Japan industrial Production Data
Earlier during the Asian session, the Japan’s industrial production data was published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The outcome was below the expectations, as the Japan’s industrial production registered a gain of 0.5%, compared to 0.9% expected.

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[team.ikofx]

USDCHF At Critical Support Ahead of ISM Manufacturing PMI

The US dollar is trading lower against almost all major currencies, including the Swiss franc. The USDCHF pair is now forming a descending channel on the 4 hour timeframe, which might turn out to be a game changer for the pair in the near term. More importantly, the channel support area is coinciding with the 50% fib retracement level of the last up-move from the 0.8703 low to 0.9033 high. So, the 0.8860 support level can be considered as an important barrier for the US dollar sellers. Let’s wait and see how the pair reacts if it moves back lower and re-tests the mentioned channel support area again.

If somehow the pair manages to bounce from the current levels, then the channel resistance trend line at 0.8920 might come into play. A break and close above the same might call for more upside acceleration towards the 200 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart. The RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means the probability of a short-term retracement is quite high moving ahead.

Alternatively, if the US dollar sellers manage to break the channel support area, then a test of the 61.8% fib level is possible in the near term. Any further losses would largely depend on the incoming data from the US.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Today, the Institute for Supply Management will be releasing the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise from 55.4 to 55.8. If it manages to register a better than expected reading, than the USDCHF pair might gain bids in the coming NY session. Technically, the 0.8860-50 support level holds the key in the short term for the USDCHF pair.

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[team.ikofx]

AUDCHF: 0.8360 Key For Downside In The Short Term

The Australian dollar is trading a touch lower against the Swiss franc Intraday, as the economic data released in the Australian came as a disappointment. The trade balance data was published earlier during the Asian session for the Australia. The outcome missed the forecast, as the Australian trade deficit, which came at -$1.911 billion. This was way below the expectations. The outcome resulted in a down-move in the Australian dollar against most of the major currencies, including the Swiss franc.

Technically, there is a channel forming on the 4 hour timeframe, which recently acted as a resistance for the pair around the 0.8430 level. Currently, the pair is trading below the 100 simple moving average (4H). If it closes below it, then it might call for more losses in the pair, which could take it towards the 200 simple moving average (4H). If it fails to hold the same, then a test of the channel support trend line is possible in the short term. The channel support holds a lot of significance, as the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 0.8210 low to 0.8477 high is also around the same support area. So, a break and close below it would be seen as a bearish for the pair.

On the other hand, if the pair manages to climb from the current or a bit lower levels, then it might trade back towards the channel resistance trend line. The RSI is holding the 50 level, which is a positive sign in the short term.

A break above the channel resistance zone might call for sharp gains in the AUDCHF pair, which could even take it above the last high of 0.8477.

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[team.ikofx]

AUDUSD Crushed Post Disappointing Retail Sales Data

The Australian dollar is trading lower against most major currencies, including the US dollar, as the Australian retail sales data which was released earlier came below the expectations. The report published mentions that the Australia’s retail sales fell by 0.5% in May 2014, missing the forecast of a 0.3% rise. Moreover, the RBA Governor also spoke during the Asian session, which ignited a sharp down-move in the AUDUSD pair. The AUDUSD pair fell below an important support area to trade below the 0.9380 level.

Technically, there was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the AUDUSD pair. The pair has cleared the mentioned trend line and traded as low as 0.9370. The pair has even breached the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 0.9322 low to 0.9504 high. More importantly, the pair is trading below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages, which can be considered as a strong bearish signal in the short term. If the pair breaches the 76.4% fib level, then a test of the previous low might be on the cards.

The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which means the pair might correct higher from the current or a bit lower levels. If it manages to do so, then it might face hurdle around the broken trend line, which might act as a resistance moving ahead. Moreover, the 0.9420-40 area might act as a barrier for the pair, and it would be very tough for the Aussie buyers to break it.

So, selling around the mentioned resistance zone might not be a bad idea. However, one should wait for some retracement before planning a trade in the AUDUSD pair.

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[team.ikofx]

GBPUSD Climbs Back And Ignores Outstanding US NFP Report

The British pound is trading back around the yesterday’s high against the US dollar, which means the GBPUSD pair managed to recover all the lost ground post the US nonfarm payrolls data release. The US nonfarm payrolls registered a massive rise of 288K, compared to the expectations of 212K. The US dollar is trading higher against most of the major currencies, but it looks like that the British pound is outperforming the US dollar, as it has recovered all yesterday’s losses.

Technically, there was a short-term bearish trend line formed on the 4 hour chart for the GBPUSD pair. The pair was struggling to break the same, but during the early part of the Asian session, the pair broke the mentioned trend line to trade towards the 1.7170 resistance level. Currently, the pair is trading around the yesterday’s high, and if it manages to clear the same, then a test of the 1.7200 resistance area is possible in the short term. It is important to note that the pair bounced right from the 100 simple moving average (4H), and then breached the trend line. So, more gains cannot be denied from here on.

On the other hand, if the pair fails around the 1.7170 level, then a move lower might take the pair towards the broken trend line, which could act as a support. If it fails to hold the mentioned trend line, then it could drop towards the 100 SMA (4H) where it might find buyers again.

The RSI is well above the 50 level, and there are several support levels on the way down. So, it would be very hard for sellers to take the GBPUSD lower in the near term.

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[team.ikofx]

Euro Threatens To Break Higher Against Swiss Franc

The Euro is trading lower against the US dollar, but it has managed to hold the ground against the Swiss franc. In fact, the EURCHF pair is trading higher Intraday. It is more due to weakness of the Swiss franc, and less due to the strength of the Euro. There was an important bearish trend line on the hourly chart for the EURCHF pair, which was breached earlier during this past week. This break was very critical, as it ignited a sharp move higher in the pair. The pair has even breached the 200 and 100 hourly simple moving averages, which is a bullish sign in the short term.

More importantly, the pair has managed to break the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2177 high. This means there is a high probability that the pair might test the mentioned high and even break it to trade higher. So, in the short term 1.2177 is a resistance area. A break above the mentioned level could take the pair towards the 1.2200 resistance area where sellers are expected to reappear. Any further strength looks difficult as of now, as the Euro is struggling against other major currencies, which might act as a barrier for the EURCHF pair.

On the other hand, if buyers fail to gain momentum, and the EURCHF pair moves lower, then it might fall towards the 200 hourly simple moving average, which could act as a support for the pair. If sellers manage to pierce it, then 100 hourly SMA would hold the key for any further downside in the pair.

So, as long as the pair is trading above the 200 hourly SMA, the chance of a run towards the 1.2180 level is quite high.
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[team.ikofx]

Australian Dollar Continues To Struggle Against the New Zealand Dollar

The Australian dollar recently managed to gain some bids against the New Zealand dollar, but failed to sustain the momentum. Earlier, the AUDNZD pair broke an important bullish trend line to trade lower towards the 1.0680 support level where buyers reappeared. The pair again managed to climb back up, but failed around the broken trend line, which acted as a resistance for the pair. Moreover, the same trend line also coincided with a bearish trend line connecting recent swing highs. So, a failure around this resistance zone might be seen as crucial, which could act as a driver to take the pair lower in the short term.

Fundamentally, the Australia’s NAB (National Australia Bank) Business Confidence was released earlier during the Asian session, which registered a better than expected outcome. The report mentioned that the Business confidence showing no ill effects from the government’s ‘tough budget’, rather improving in line with better business conditions. This was an encouraging sign, but the Australian dollar failed to gain bids against the New Zealand dollar despite rising against the US dollar.

If the AUDNZD pair rises from the current levels, and manages to break the trend line confluence area, then it might challenge the 100 hourly moving average in the short term. If buyers manage to gain control, then a move towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0837 high to 1.0676 low is also possible.

However, if the pair continues to struggle around the mentioned confluence resistance zone, then a drop towards the recent low cannot be denied. The only positive thing as of now is that the hourly RSI is back above the 50 level, which could encourage buyers moving ahead.

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[Babson.Summary]

where USDJPY go....can I bullish it now?

 

[team.ikofx]

USDJPY Breaks Short-term Uptrend

The US dollar continued its decline against the Japanese yen yesterday, as the market sentiment favoured more gains in the Japanese yen. The USDJPY pair broke an important bullish trend line on the one-hour chart, which resulted in a sharp down-move in the pair. The pair also fell below the 61.8% fib level of the last leg higher from the 101.24 low to 102.26 high, and closed below the 200 moving average (1 hour). However, the pair found support around the 76.4% fib level, and currently bouncing back towards the broken trend line area.

On the upside, the broken 200 hourly SMA might act as an initial resistance for the pair, followed by the broken trend line where buyers could be put to test. It is very likely that the pair might struggle to break the mentioned resistance area and turn lower again. If that happens, then there is a high probability that the pair might fall towards the previous low of 101.24 in the short term. It is around this level where the US dollar buyers could reappear to hold the downside in the pair. If the 101.20 fails to hold, then a move towards the 100.80 support level would be on the cards.

The hourly RSI has bounced from the oversold levels and now testing the 50 level. A break above the same might put the pair back in the bullish zone. However, there are several hurdles on the way up for the pair.

The FOMC meeting minutes will be published today, which might act as a catalyst for the pair. As long as it is trading below the 100 hourly moving average more losses cannot be denied.

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[team.ikofx]

USDCHF Breaks An Important Support; More Losses Likely

The US dollar is trading lower Intraday, as the FOMC meeting minutes which was released yesterday failed to spark a rally. The US dollar moved lower against most of its counterparts, including the Swiss franc. There was an important sliding channel formed on the one-hour chart for the USDCHF pair, which was breached yesterday by the dollar sellers. The pair has now closed below the channel support area, and not event that it has managed to close below the 200 moving average (1H). This can be considered as a short-term bearish signal.

The pair is currently flirting with the 50% fib retracement level of the last major leg higher from the 0.8856 low to 0.8958 high. However, it can also be considered as broken, as the pair is struggling to hold the downside. Moving ahead, it looks like that the broken channel support area and the 200 moving average might act as a resistance, and push the pair lower. In that situation, the pair might fall towards the 61.8% fib level at 0.8895. If the dollar buyers fail to defend the mentioned fib level, then it would open the doors for further downside acceleration towards the last low of 0.8856.

Alternatively, if the recent break turned out to be a false one, and the USDCHF pair bounces from the current levels, then it might trade back towards the channel resistance trend line, which is also coinciding with the 100 moving average on the one hour chart.

So, keep an eye on the broken support area, and watch the reaction around the 0.8910 level. If buyers fail, then a sharp move lower is possible in the short term.

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[team.ikofx]

More Losses To Follow For EURUSD?

The Euro impressed the investors when it traded higher against the US dollar after the FOMC meeting minutes. However, the EURUSD pair erased all the gains yesterday to trade below an important support level of 1.3600. There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the EURUSD pair. The Euro sellers have managed to break the mentioned trend line to take the EURUSD pair lower. The pair traded as low as 1.3588 where buyers appeared to hold the downside in the pair. However, the market sentiment looks like largely in favour of the Euro sellers, which means more losses cannot be denied in the short term.

The EURUSD pair is currently flirting with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the recent down-move from the 1.3650 high to 1.3588 low. If the pair manages to trade higher from the current levels, then the 100 hourly moving average might act as an initial resistance for the pair. However, the most important hurdle for the pair is around the broken trend line, which now also coincides with the 50% fib retracement level. So, it is around this level where the Euro sellers might take charge to take the pair lower again.

The chance of a break above the 50% fib level is very low, but if that happens, then it could put the pair back on track towards the 1.3650 high.

Overall, as long as the pair is trading below the 50% fib level at 1.3620 selling rallies might be a good option in the short term. The German and Spanish Consumer price index data will be published during today’s London session, which might act as a catalyst for the pair moving ahead.

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