Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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GBP/USD: The Triangle That Could Define the Rest of 2026

The pound just closed its strongest week against the dollar in months, ending July up more than 1% and holding just below $1.35. Two factors are driving the move. First, political risk has faded: the UK appointed its seventh prime minister in a decade, and the new government's pledge of fiscal discipline has reassured markets. Second, the Bank of England surprised with a more hawkish tone than expected—policymakers voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but three members pushed for a hike, a stronger signal of resolve than markets had priced in.

The dollar, meanwhile, has had a rough few sessions. Following the Fed's decision to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the path ahead, leaving investors questioning whether the central bank is doing enough to bring inflation back to target. The dollar index posted its worst weekly performance in three months as a result, though roughly two-thirds of the market still expects a September hike.

With both central banks striking cautiously hawkish tones but offering little forward guidance, GBP/USD's next move looks set to hinge on incoming US labor data.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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AUD/NZD: A Mixed Jobs Report Meets a Critical Chart Level

The Aussie and the Kiwi are telling two very different monetary policy stories right now, and the divergence is starting to show up clearly in the cross. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% in August, but the hawkish tone that once dominated has faded fast: Q2 inflation cooled to 3.9% from 4.1%, prompting Goldman Sachs to abandon its call for one final hike this year. Markets now price next to no chance of an August move, with only roughly even odds of a hike by November.

Across the Tasman, the RBNZ is playing a different game entirely. Having already hiked to 2.50% in June, the central bank has kept its guidance firmly hawkish, and markets are now almost fully pricing a further 25bp increase in September. Wednesday's employment data added an interesting twist: employment change q/q beat expectations sharply at 0.5% against 0.1% forecast, yet the unemployment rate also rose to 5.6% from 5.4%, above forecasts—a genuinely mixed print that complicates the otherwise hawkish RBNZ narrative.

The result: a Reserve Bank stepping back from further tightening against one still leaning hawkish, though now facing a labor market sending conflicting signals of its own.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Euro and Pound Hold Gains as Markets Assess the US Employment Outlook

The euro and the pound continue to trade higher against the US dollar following last week's Federal Reserve meeting. As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future monetary policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data. This cautious stance failed to provide fresh support for the dollar, while yesterday's weaker US labour market figures added further downward pressure. According to the latest ADP report, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs, well below forecasts of 68,000 and the previous month's 95,000. Although the S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations, the ISM report painted a more mixed picture: the headline services index edged down to 54.1, while the employment component fell to 47.4, signalling continued cooling in the labour market. As a result, investors increased their expectations of a broader slowdown in the US economy, allowing both the euro and the pound to maintain their upward momentum.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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FTSE 100 Analysis: Strong BAE Systems Earnings Support the Index Rally Near Record Highs

On 30 July, BAE Systems reported its first-half 2026 financial results, with sales rising 9% year-on-year to £15.8 billion. Underlying operating profit increased by 11% to £1.7 billion, while underlying earnings per share climbed 13% to 38.9 pence. The company also raised its full-year outlook for sales, operating profit and EPS, supported by a record order backlog of £84 billion following £16.4 billion in newly secured contracts. On the same day, the FTSE 100 reached a fresh intraday high, helped by gains in mining stocks amid stronger commodity prices and positive momentum across industrial companies after encouraging earnings releases. The advance came alongside renewed focus on developments surrounding Iran and expectations ahead of the Bank of England’s rate decision.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.