Currency Trading; October

[Newtron Bomb]

goober
now you have detailed the trade it makes perfects sense, i always work with the rule that if it doesnt feel right your subconscious, gut, instinct (call it what you will but it all amounts to the same thing) is trying to tell you something that you have not consciously been aware off.

I think a good trader should have a trading plan but be flexible, "always be prepared to have a change of heart" (Gann i think)

This is a business and if i want a hobby i'll go fishing

 

[Goober]

NB

I agree with you whole-heartedly. As much as I enjoy trading, ultimately, I am in it to make money.

Would that be fishing for stops?

Good trading

Goober.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

$/yen

Trend change, RSI is favourable, finding suport from early june

However, on the daily chart it looks like a H&S pattern that has broken out, so maybe just a pullback at a convenient S/R level

 

[Newtron Bomb]

$/Yen daily

 

[Newtron Bomb]

j.40
mytrack is having problems, i am led to beleive they are updating there servers but i think that will have been done by now...

 

[jonnyy40]

Thanks - I saw your charts and thought you might have overcome the problem!It's annoying as I put a lot of emphasis on various lines etc.

 

[Newtron Bomb]

j.40
so do i but i have to play with the hand am dealt with... try furturesource.com or fxcm for there charts they will fill the blanks and enable you to manage the trade...always have plan B

 

[Newtron Bomb]

$/Yen update

Looks like it just turned out to be a convenient level for a pullback afterall. You would have lost a few pips going long but if you reveresed when the trend line broke or at a new low @ 110.30 then you would be sitting on 40 pips with it having been up to 90+ pips depending on your entry
Did i trade it? no, i was in and out most of the afternoon but theres plent more where that came from

 

[Newtron Bomb]

gbp/usd

Been pretty tricky with mytrack feed going up and down. I think ive got most of the data backfilled now

It is still predominantly two pattens both consolodations, an ascending triangle which am having reduced failth in as i dont beleive the data and it most likely will have drifted sideways (so i will be checking this from other sources). If this was the case the price is trading within a range of a little over 150pips

 

[Newtron Bomb]

GBP/USD
Long @ 1.6612
reason; support at 1.66 confirmed from rsi

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Handy hint to help with the learning curve :cheesy:

1 - Start copying the analysis onto your own charts so that you can see where and how trends and pattens are formed from the analysts perspective
2 - when you are confident you can do a little analysis of your own and start putting this on the charts and compare this to the analysis you are looking at to see how close you are
3 - Start paper trading with your analysis in real time and compare with the analysis done at the end of the day
If real time is not a possibility atm then look to scroll through bar by bar to see how you would have faired doing the above and then compare with the eod analysis

HTH

 

[Newtron Bomb]

A comparison of the 15 min and the 5 min gbp/usd chart

The 15 min looks a little rough, but looking at the 5 min you can see a clearer picture... for today at least anyway

Support was clearly at 1.66 and a higher low coupled rsi support game me reason to go long.
The same could be said about the 1.6660 resistance as sloping res on rsi also confirms a short, but id like to give this a chance to get to 1.6740/60. so a 20 pips top with a potential reward of approx 130 pips from my entry gives a nice 6.5:1 R/R
If it breaks the high i'll cover my entry making it a free trade :cheesy:

 

[Newtron Bomb]

A low of 1.6587 on the spike down, cmc decided to keep me in this time, next time i may not be so lucky

Also a slight Pos. divergence in rsi

The short @ 1.660 obviously really looks good with hindsight, but to be fair i thought 1.6640 would have provided greater support... this is what happens when you precondition yourself to your opinions

Sticking to the ema rule you would be short from around 1.6640 and read the paper all day

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Another boring day really on gbp, euro/$ in a range too, but quite a lot more tradeable.

The 5 min charts looked a lot more interesting to trade but there is no point in me chasing the trades.

"If you call them they will come"
Indian dude of Waynes World

still long off support @ 1.6612 and is taking its time to go up or down

Whats that Windy... Back to the mill?

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Its nice to wake up to sometimes

Looking at this pullback for next long, order @ 1.6685 so if it gets there am in

 

[Newtron Bomb]

gbp/usd

Ive tidied the chart a bit so you can see the s/r levels am looking at. The problem with taking an entry from around your moving average is that you will always be late into any move, but when it trends it will keep you in.

At the moment we are in a range and the usefulness of the ema is reduced considerably. eg my Long entry was 1.6612 off support, but if you were looking for an entry this morning you would be long on the BO of the overnight range or +20 ema (if you couldnt see an earlier entry) both conveniently would be approx 1.6660 and doesnt look like it is filling you with confidence to go higher. but from the earlier entry you are well in the money looking to add to the position. psychologically this will have a big effect on you.

Rules are good as they ensure you are consistent but you have to be flexible and this is one of those time where you need to read the market a bit closer

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Well what did i do today:?:
I put a stop loss at 1.6630 and a stop order to add to position at 1.6680 (wasnt triggered) and went out. so +18 from yest but really just takes a chip out the current string off losses. But hey its a trend following strat and GBP is ranging...

Following the ema entries you would have been whipped a few times today so concentrating on other things rather than currency trading today has saved me a few pips, a penny saved....
And, to be fair it could have easily gone the other for me and missed the mother of all moves, so i am just lucky, this time

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Trading the range

Youve seen the trend following strategy work well and now fail in a ranging market.

So throw the ema out the window and look at s/r only...
I mentioned i was short from 1.6740 yestrday on rezo_s diary thread and took no other action other than cover my entry.

The chart shows s/r lines and after this mornings BO and pullback (seems to be doing this a lot lately on gbp) I placed a reversal order to go long @ 1.6720 and to add to the short @ 1.6670

The long was filled, and the price then condolodated, so the same thing again.. already long so a stop and reverse placed @ 1.6710

Bull flag gives me a 1.6795 target stop raised to 1.6750
Ive not added to my position although there have been opportunities. My reason has been that i would like to see a BO of this range as there is an abundance of s/r levels both up and down and the r/r for me isnt worth the hastle


Happy trading
NB

 

[Newtron Bomb]

If it can hold above 1.68 its blue skies to 1.69

 

[Newtron Bomb]

Well it held its head above and it made it past 1.69 :cheesy:

For now am looking for clues in gbp as to which way this will go. Today like yesterday is in a narrow channel. The clues are on the 5 min chart rsi resistance at the top and support at the bottom of the channel. rsi is also forming an ascending triangle

So far I will be looking to add to an already long position above 1.6970 and take a short position below 1.6925

Its not my usual style to trade a range but ive been having a bit of fun while the breakfast sausages cook

The trend lines ive draw shows where the price action is... rsi showing similar and using them both to identify a turn for two quick 20point gains.