Baruch said:
Thank you, Chris. But why not combine the technicals and the fundamentals? Why not follow both the charts and the news?
I have studied the fundamentals, I ve got a couple of economic books. One is the economics of international trade, banking and finance, which is a 1000 page job. It goes very deep right into the dynamics of money supply etc. Thats hard work. I have a not too bad understanding of the what the fundametals mean but...
I tried with the news and charts but I found that they contradicted each other too often. So i had to choose one or the other.
The other thing is my system is medium term, or rarther anything from 1 day to 4 weeks, so alot of the time the daily news doesnt knock my signals of course so i dont need to change from long to short.
I take what your saying, but I think maybe looking at the medium term fundamentals might be suit my system better.
Now in saying that I had some success trading the NFP release on the 15min chart, using a MA crossover system and going with shortterm trend direction, or whatever way i was in the market before the announcement.
example lets say i was in long. Whever i was in at the moment before the release i would place the stoploss about 50 pips away from my entry. Then if i was stopped out i would be out, but if the market continued in the direction i was in then i would hold out using trail stops and take 180 pips sometime..
the theory was i had a 50/50 of being right, and the very short term trend takes the markets in the direction which the bias is on. IEg, if we are in a channel, and the number is expected to be good then the price will move nearer the top of the channel in expectancy of the positive number. I saw that the average movement on NFP day was more than 150 pips.
The way I saw it was this i had a 50/50 in being right on direction, and was risking 50pips for a possible reward of 180 pips. So if i was wrong -50 pips and if i was right 180 pips.
Did you get in too, a_g?
