Controlling Time Drawdown

[cantagril]

Bye Postman 👋 and bye Cantagril 👋

..and a hearty welcome to T2W for PPP

 

[cantagril]

..... he will learn nothing from me.

On reading some previous exchanges with fellow exDarwinexers, I have the impression that he doesn't think that this would ever be a possibility.

 

[postman]

Bye Postman 👋 and bye Cantagril 👋



I share with who i want...

I decide.

You have failed to understand the simple concept of how an online forum works, YOU do NOT get to decide who sees your posts only which post YOU see. Keep up, its not that difficult to understand.

 

[cantagril]

You have failed to understand the simple concept of how an online forum works, YOU do NOT get to decide who sees your posts only which post YOU see. Keep up, its not that difficult to understand.

Aksherly, it's not that strange...after all, even here on this super-friendly and open-minded forum*, there used to be private sub-forumses and I'm aware that on others it's possible to restrict access to particular threads. Maybe that's how Darwinex functions....

*imho, of course

 

[postman]

You can't control drawdown duration. You can try to minimize it through diversification and trade frequency. But that's only my narrow minded math and statistic based view

You cant control drawdown duration if your a retail trader that relies on monthly injections of cash to fund your trading you can control it if you have access to extra funds in the short term or even borrowing at zero interest to add for a short period.

This is the reason the markets go crazy on the first and last days of the month. End of the month position squaring, book balancing getting rid of dud investments to make your book look better when someone else judges you on your performance. And then on the first day of the month the influx of funds that you want to put to work as quickly as possible and the front running algos stealing that .01 penny of each of your trades.
To quote your beloved [B]Pure Pip Producer[/B], who asks you to use Metacognition but wont tell you what he means by it, well look at it this way. Think of all the things that constrain your trading and by extension most fund managers and then think how you can be exploited by others who dont have those rules and limitations and then ....
Thats when you can make money!
Just my five pence worth.

 

[Pure Pip Producer]

From now i will speak only in private, on my Twitter @PurePipProducer, to the investors, to the people who want to invest and also to the people who have a verified track-record. (winning or losing)

That was my last public post on this forum.

Forums are not made for me.

It's more for people who are looking for something. Sorry but, I'm not.

See you in hell guys

 

[cantagril]

It sounds like he himself is commercial, which would explain everything.

 

[postman]

From now i will speak only in private, on my Twitter @PurePipProducer, to the investors, to the people who want to invest and also to the people who have a verified track-record. (winning or losing)

That was my last public post on this forum.

Forums are not made for me.

It's more for people who are looking for something. Sorry but, I'm not.

See you in hell guys

"Forums are not made for me." yes thats right the world does not revolve around you, forums were made for academic intellectuals by academics in the 1970's, so they could inform others and stimulate debate. They dont suit self centered narcissists, thats definitely a twitter thing for millenials.

 

[counter_violent]

"Forums are not made for me." yes thats right the world does not revolve around you, forums were made for academic intellectuals by academics in the 1970's, so they could inform others and stimulate debate. They dont suit self centered narcissists, thats definitely a twitter thing for millenials.

Right, that's that one sorted out.

Hopefully the other members understand what a forum is.

 

[Oleg]

Bye counter_violent 👋


View attachment 288558




From now, i will push this button a lot, to all the people who :

1- Answer to me without any verified Track-Record

Or

2- Are not an investor of the Darwin PDC

Just ignore me then.
I will never invest in one Darwin where the trader talks like you do. The day you are in DD then you will not talk to investors or tell them they are idiots.

Your track record is not impressive so you should be careful play guru.

Please ignore me and be serious.

 

[1nvest]

Can I add a couple of cents to this, as its not a Darwinian thread
If i use a chart to explain a couple of metacognital ideas...admittedly i had to look it up and gave me nothing that a picture cant explain

the red line shows 1 strategy (buy and hold in this case)
the blue line shows a very simple market timing model
The period of 2000 and 2008 shows the two largest drawdown periods...but it took 6 years for the equity curve on the buy and hold to recover. (6 years and 3 months) this is TIME DRAWDOWN. I've put a box around it to just demonstrate
so by introducing 1 strategy, i've impacted time drawdown pretty significantly

Now let me do the same timing model but this time i'm going to introduce just 1 additional asset class

now look at the drawdown period for 2000. Have i "controlled" time drawdown?
so we probably conclude
to compensate for time drawdown, the introduction of multiple strategies, and multiple asset classes we can more or less p!ss all over buy and hold (who said you cant beat buy and hold...mr Buffett) and also weather those periods of significant drawdown and the period by which it takes to recover from it

now, im done with talking to you lot, im off to my twitter page

 

[Oscar Reed]

I master the Time Drawdown since 2018. That's not my goal anymore.

My goal is to do it on a Darwin.



If you think i will tell you something you could exploit, you are mistaken.

I will write here only the philosophy you have to navigate.



But in any cases, even if i would give you an edge, you couldn't do anything with.

I've 11 edges.





Have a nice day, all...

Do you trade with Pip from Alabama.
Not seen him on the threads for a while.

 

[counter_violent]

Do you trade with Pip from Alabama.
Not seen him on the threads for a while.

He's waiting for the powers that be to pass the next stimulus bill.

 

[new_trader]

to compensate for time drawdown, the introduction of multiple strategies, and multiple asset classes we can more or less p!ss all over buy and hold (who said you cant beat buy and hold...mr Buffett) and also weather those periods of significant drawdown and the period by which it takes to recover from it

now, im done with talking to you lot, im off to my twitter page

A buy and hold strategy that invests in non-correlated assets works just as well. It's what I have been doing for years...and years...

 

[DominionCuentas]

Theory of the Games --> the law of series --> the speed of the occurences

Just for the record...

The phenomenon known as the law of series appears in many aspects of everyday life, science and technology. In the common sense understanding it signifies a sudden increase of frequency of a rare event, seemingly violating the rules of probability.

This law can be defined as: the repetition of identical or analogous events, things or symbols in space or time; for example: the announcement of several similar accidents on the same day, a series of strange events experienced by someone on the same day which are either happy ones (a period of good luck) or unfavorable (disastrous) ones, or the repetition of unexpected similar events. For example, you are invited to dinner and you are served a roast beef and you note that you were served the same menu the day before at your uncle’s home and the day before that at your cousin’s home.

Another proverb describing more or less the same (with regard to unwanted events) is misfortune seldom comes alone. Both expressions exist in many languages, proving that the phenomenon has been commonly noticed throughout the world. In this setting it has been accounted to the category of unexplained mystery, paraphysics, parapsychology, together with “malignancy of fate”, “Murphy laws”, etc.

Many pseudoscientific experiments have been conducted to prove obvious violation of statistical laws, where such laws were usually identified with the statistics of a series of independent trials. Equally many texts have been devoted to explain the anomaly within the framework of an independent process, or merely as the weakness of our memory, keen to notice unusual events as more frequent just because they are more distinctive.

The phenomenon is also known in more serious science. In modeling and statistics it is sometimes called “clustering of data”.
It is experimentally observed in many real processes, such as traffic jams, telecommunication network overloads, power consumption peaks, demographic peaks, stock market fluctuations, etc., as periods of increased frequency of occurrences of certain rare events.

THE LAW OF SERIES
T. Downarowicz and Y. Lacroix
January 8, 2006

 

[Pure Pip Producer]

I use this law, in part, to control my Drawdown.

It is more profitable than all the other existing methods.

(On this pic a huge prolonged time drawdown of 20 days)​

I this case, we can notice that i used one of the interpretations that we can do of this law : To stop operating after the first loss who comes after a long serie of gains, until the next window of time. (of course we must have predefined windows of time before).

So, who know what could have happened if i had keep going to trade after that loss? You? Me? God? My uncle?

We don't fucking care. The profit is in the pocket. The Drawdown becomes a Time Drawdown in this case.... and not anymore a Percentage Drawdown (or a so small one).

There is many other interpretations of this rule i use for different cases. That's only one of these cases.