Clown's Weekly 34.

The Dutch Clown said:
Dear Pacito,

Don’t tempt me, I have read some Cycle stuff and a combination with a peace of artificial Intelligence that forecasts earthquakes extraordinarily accurate but that’s a different ballgame. The chapter in the C. Brown book to read once again is the bit on what she calls reverse engineering but in the sense of thinking out of the box. The price targets you mention are already backed up by Reversal signals in different charts but now we have to start thinking again. Given the present value of our oscillator those targets are totally out of the question so I wondered if the phrase from my Math’s lessons – sorry in Dutch "de inverse bewering" – is true here as well. In my limited scope the approach to reversed engineering C. Brown took is too complex, simply working with the formula will do the trick as well. If I take a closer look at the intraday chart a very nice reversal signal is already in place and even a next one is a distinct possibility. If we take a closer look at the EOD chart there we find no reversal signal yet, other than the potential to create one in the near future.

If I take the Elliott Wave Analysis in account the preferred scenario is a wave 2 and yes you are right wave 1 is not the absolute high that’s one of the sub-waves of that second wave. The negative divergence in the oscillator – although the literature refers to the Elliott Oscillator -typically occurs in a wave five and continues in the corrective wave that follows the impulsive wave continuing the divergence as shown.

The DJIA has similar characteristics and today is lacking to use the support Gann line from the 10683 Fan and the next support area will be found in the 11200 region. Our oscillator is building upside potential so it seems that all pieces of the puzzle are in sight to become the whole picture..

My dear Best Clown.

Where are you?
You give the pipe too Maarten?
Y miss you.

With greatest respect
 
Cassandra said:
My dear Best Clown.

Where are you?
You give the pipe too Maarten?
Y miss you.

With greatest respect



I second this question.

Also with my respects

JaneB
 
What can I say,

Well my preferred smoke is an excellent cigar, handmade long filler, so I will pass on your pipe thank you very much. So what’s your question?

Mr. Churchill smoked a fine cigar and gave his name to a model.
So I will have one right now.

Cheers.
 
The Dutch Clown said:
What can I say,

Well my preferred smoke is an excellent cigar, handmade long filler, so I will pass on your pipe thank you very much. So what’s your question?

Mr. Churchill smoked a fine cigar and gave his name to a model.
So I will have one right now.

Cheers.
Dear Clown,
What are you up to with that model? I must say I really miss your update. Even more because I understand a lot more of it than in the beginning. Solar calculator tells me that 0 is behind us. Focus on october 7th. Next move seems to be 21st or 22nd of november. Got a new toy: gannalyst. Fabulous Gann and Fibonacci calculations. Nice extra to the rest of my TA tools. Does it work? Well, in the last 8 trades only one minor loss. Nice page 58 last week.
Cheers,
Pacito
 
The Dutch Clown said:
What can I say,

Well my preferred smoke is an excellent cigar, handmade long filler, so I will pass on your pipe thank you very much. So what’s your question?

Mr. Churchill smoked a fine cigar and gave his name to a model.
So I will have one right now.

Cheers.

Dear Clown.

Y Hope you enjoy jour sigar hand made from de Dominican Y hope.
My only ask was,why jou don,t post any more here?

With great respect one Marlbore smoker :)
 
Hey clown,

just letting you know that i'm still around and following. Got bored with the level of discussion in that other forum so i'm hoping its better here, just subscribed.

With kind regards,

the nut.
 
Pacito,

I have scaled down the update frequency dramatically to focus more on trading the longer term period and spend more quality time living. In the absence of the analyst his replacement made such a mess of the daily column I posted a couple of screens to show the differences.

You might recall the 478,44 and May situation where the Gann Squaring time/price did hit on both price and time in the 217,80 level. Well as you might have guessed the 480,59 again causes hesitation moving forward combining it with the time hit September 30th completes the picture. These points in price and time show the characteristics of at least hesitation in movement and possible turning point.

If you take a close look at your charts you will notice bearish divergence and that’s the thing that’s holding the AEX back so it has to be taken out in order to be able to move forward. So yes there are a number of Positive Reversal Signals indicating moving up so your Titanic scenario is not just valid yet.

One of the projects I am currently working on is a definition of a trending system within a trading environment. A closer look at the trending side tells us that the Longterm is ++ the Midterm is ++ and the Shortterm is ++ trending although the ST second + was quite close to changing into a -. It also could be used on the intraday charts but I want to be able to keep a bit more distance and the trend is definitely my friend here.

In Yank’s land we have elections coming up and Cowboy George will help his little friends to keep there comfortable seat’s where ever he can. So from that point of view it is extremely unlikely that we will see stock markets collapse. Yes I know it has nothing to do with Technical Analysis but one has to keep an open mind and common sense should be applied as well.


Have fun.

PS: Nootje Welcome (we control the quality here).
 
Pacito,

As you might know doing the many different Gann calculations cause almost a headache and is quite some work to perform. It is that C. Brown in the book admits that when everybody else is having a drink in the pub after stock market close she is working doing her calculations. So I sort of gave up my effort finding a piece of software that does the Gann thing and did write a number of routines in Excel to do part of the work. As you told us you now use GannAlyst I did a number of simple Gann calculations and I am wondering how much of it you will be able to do in that piece of software. The 217,80 shows 517,93 at 360°. The 307,31 shows 518,94 at 225°. The 409,56 shows 517,00 at 90°. The 460,17 shows 515,36 at 225°. Pretty much straight forward and should not cause any problem in your toy but what I am curious about is what level of interpretation this Aussie has put in of the more complex Gann theory’s if at all.

One of C. Brown remarks that sort of keeps running through my brains – like c… running around..- is where Gann and Fibonacci meet and if we consider a Fibonacci level of 517,77 we might have a winner here. In the mean time from a TA point of view it would be ever so nice if that bearish divergence will be blown out of the water, so things will get a bit less complicated. Yes I know there is no such thing like a perfect world. The most recent Positive Reversal signal indicates the AEX is preparing to have a go at it anyway.

Have fun.
 
I'm still wrestling with my new toy. There are so many possibilities and so many default settings to change that I just play with it for the moment.
Pacito
 

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The only real friend is a trend

Pacito,

Just to show you who is your friend.

Have a fine weekend.
 

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The Dutch Clown said:
Pacito,

Just to show you who is your friend.

Have a fine weekend.
Thanks I did.
What do you think?
Pacito
 

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New high between nov 6 and dec 6 in the AEX. That's the way I see it at the moment.
Pacito
 

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Pacito said:
New high between nov 6 and dec 6 in the AEX. That's the way I see it at the moment.
Pacito
Hi Pacito ,

As I said to Clown , we are now on a ride...but wat is the meaning of 'pyramid' in your last attachment?

Have a nice evening contemplating the US market...

Greetz

Gogo

Clown

You remember my remark about the moneyflow index...My first research gives surprising results... despite the fact it has to happen between the soup and the patatoes.... according to the results we should reach a short term high of 491.08 ! Coincidence that GJN has the same target? ... is there some correlation with RSI?...so further investigation is now necessary on the formulae... What is white is not black or what is not black should be white? ...
Have a nice smoke

Gogo
 
Dear Gogo27,

The MFI is RSI plus volume into it... and that's also the problem since the AEX index volume is not available through the exchange and therefore dataproviders do not deliver it.

So take a close look at the volume that is being used...

have fun.
 
gogo27 said:
Hi Pacito ,

As I said to Clown , we are now on a ride...but wat is the meaning of 'pyramid' in your last attachment?

Have a nice evening contemplating the US market...

Greetz

Gogo
Didi Gogo,
That should be the last resistancelevel before going to 512. Don't put to much emphasis on it. Its a new program and I didn't finetune all the possibilities. Don't want to be a member of the defaultclub.
Pacito
PS At the moment I'm searching for my eyes. They fell out at about 22.30 seeing 11,850,61.
 

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Pyramid

The Pyramid, on second thought, ought to be the level at which you decide to accumulate (pyramiding) your position. This is, as I wrote, probably the last resistence before reaching the target.
Pacito
 
Pacito said:
The Pyramid, on second thought, ought to be the level at which you decide to accumulate (pyramiding) your position. This is, as I wrote, probably the last resistence before reaching the target.
Pacito
OK
Thanks for your explanation...

I have to go for a walk...

SU later

Gogo

Clown

It came immediately in my mind...thanks anyway...

Preparing a journey to Wulpen...

Greetz

Gogo
 
do the square.....

Pacito,

Let's do some squaring:

The first one was spot on this morning.

The second one is due tomorrow morning....

The third one.. singing all together now.... and notice the blue dot at this morning 9 o-clock...
 

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The Dutch Clown said:
Pacito,

Let's do some squaring:

The first one was spot on this morning.

The second one is due tomorrow morning....

The third one.. singing all together now.... and notice the blue dot at this morning 9 o-clock...
Dear Clown, is it possible to explain what the blue dot means? Is it something from the Gann method?

Thanks, I myself am drinking a fine French cognac at the moment. It was a beautyfull day!
Have a nice on yourself,

Jane
 
The Dutch Clown said:
Pacito,

Let's do some squaring:

The first one was spot on this morning.

The second one is due tomorrow morning....

The third one.. singing all together now.... and notice the blue dot at this morning 9 o-clock...
Could it possibly be the crossing of the long term trendline with the 490 horizontal line?

With respect,

JaneB
 
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