Can I trade mostly based on technical analysis?

[EnlightenedJoe]

It requires discipline and hard work.

Discipline in what and hard work in what ? If I do 10 push-ups a day, will my profits go up ?

 

[tomorton]

A fit and healthy body helps towards a fit and healthy mind and a positive attitude.

 

[Brumby]

Welcome back Brumby. Sensible stuff.

Thanks.

Discipline in what and hard work in what ? If I do 10 push-ups a day, will my profits go up ?

Good question. Trading discipline as someone used to describe it is the ability to follow the plan. It is often mentioned that it takes around 10 years or 10,000 hours of practice to reach the top of any performance fields. This requires hard work.

Trading is essentially counter intuitive to our human dna. For example, its is generally accepted that the trend is your friend until it ends. This means, in an uptrend we buy high to sell higher if we are yo make money. Unfortunately we are generally geared to buy low to sell high. This means an intrinsic habit of picking tops and bottom and trading against the trend - which is a low profitable practice. It requires discipline and hard work to change such mindset through repetitive behavioural modification.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Good question. Trading discipline as someone used to describe it is the ability to follow the plan. It is often mentioned that it takes around 10 years or 10,000 hours of practice to reach the top of any performance fields. This requires hard work.

Trading is essentially counter intuitive to our human dna. For example, its is generally accepted that the trend is your friend until it ends. This means, in an uptrend we buy high to sell higher if we are yo make money. Unfortunately we are generally geared to buy low to sell high. This means an intrinsic habit of picking tops and bottom and trading against the trend - which is a low profitable practice. It requires discipline and hard work to change such mindset through repetitive behavioural modification.

How do you work out your plan is worth following ? If you do have a plan worth following, can anyone follow it and win ?

Everywhere I look, I can see people buy high sell low and they have broker statements or call outs to prove it. Clearly it is not their intrinsic habit to buy low sell high. So I don't know where you are getting that idea from.

For instance, I can ask tomorton to call out a trade. Invariably he will end up buying high, selling low. Why ?

 

[tomorton]

Its surely a record? - 1,444 posts - and all of them negative.

 

[neil]

A spade is a spade.

Its surely a record? - 1,444 posts - and all of them negative.

Tommo you are too polite. The vast majority of his posts are utter bollox.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Its surely a record? - 1,444 posts - and all of them negative.

Maybe you are not observant. I am absolutely positive on people buying high selling low. You can demonstrate otherwise if you like.

 

[Brumby]

How do you work out your plan is worth following ?

Simple. When you have done enough trades (statistically meaningful) to establish whether your trade plan is worth following.

If you do have a plan worth following, can anyone follow it and win ?

Not necessary. Studies have demonstrated that traders following the same trade plan will get different outcomes. The trade psychological profile is unique to each trader and accounts for the different results.

Everywhere I look, I can see people buy high sell low and they have broker statements or call outs to prove it. Clearly it is not their intrinsic habit to buy low sell high. So I don't know where you are getting that idea from.

Frankly traders do all kinds of silly things. We all have our own fair share of them. I have no intention to discuss at length what they might be. At the end of the day it is the sum of all the outcomes and the simple maths associated with the concept of trade expectancy. Profitable traders have positive trade expectancy and non profitable traders have negative. Our trade results are a function of our trade performance in two key measures - our win loss ratio and our risk reward ratio. Generally the problem with most traders is the inability to manage the risk reward ratio favourably. The golden rule of trading is in "pressing your winners and cutting your losses". Easy to say but extremely difficult to achieve. A 2016 research report released by FXCM based on their retail clients over a 15 months period demonstrates this fact clearly. Across all currency pairs, their clients were able to achieve an average of 50 % win loss ratio. The problem is in risk reward and was consistent across all currency pairs. For example, in the EURUSD pair traders were taking in less than 60 cents for every $ loss. In the GBPUSD pair it was only 50 cents to the $.

For instance, I can ask tomorton to call out a trade. Invariably he will end up buying high, selling low. Why

Are we discussing trading or clairvoyancy? Making judgement on one trade or even 10 trades is meaningless in my view because it is statistically insignificant.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

Simple. When you have done enough trades (statistically meaningful) to establish whether your trade plan is worth following.

How many trades would be statistically meaningful ? Suppose the number is X. Why would anyone following the plan between trade number 1 to trade number X - 1 ?

 

[Brumby]

How many trades would be statistically meaningful ? Suppose the number is X. Why would anyone following the plan between trade number 1 to trade number X - 1 ?

If X is a known number then performing X-1 trades is self defeating because a statistically meaningful result has not been achieved. If X is unknown then the question itself is rhetorical in nature.

 

[EnlightenedJoe]

If X is a known number then performing X-1 trades is self defeating because a statistically meaningful result has not been achieved. If X is unknown then the question itself is rhetorical in nature.

So you don't know what a statistically meaningful numbers is ? This certainly explains how people like tomorton can continue to buy high sell low indefinitely while believing they are on the right path.

 

[Brumby]

So you don't know what a statistically meaningful numbers is ? This certainly explains how people like tomorton can continue to buy high sell low indefinitely while believing they are on the right path.

How long is a piece of string? The question itself is meaningless absent context.

If you tell me you have a 5 min scalping system based on 100 trades of the EURUSD over a two week period I would find it much more meaningful than if it was based on the South African Rand over the same period. Conversely if you have a breakout system based on the GBPUSD with 100 trades over a 10 year period it would not be of any use to me because it is not a system I can meaningfully use.

The bottom line is in your own comfort level based on your personal trading objectives as to the number needed to meet your confidence level. Trading is primarily self directed effort. Obviously 100 is better than 1 and so is 1000 better than 100. Most of our effort is getting to a zone that we can be successful. That zone is different for each trader. Trading is about "you" and not the "system". There is no silver bullet nor one size fits all.

The statistical sampling size needs to be even bigger once you start to factor in risk of ruin but that is a different subject.

 

[darktone]

 

[tomorton]

Maybe you are not observant. I am absolutely positive on people buying high selling low. You can demonstrate otherwise if you like.

Well including this one I think you're proving my point.

You might be a brilliant trader but you've added zero value to this forum. Can you understand its possible for people to trade successfully without doing it exactly like you?

Here's another suggestion. You've been a member for well over a year and posted 1,450 posts. Yet you haven't started a single thread. Can you think nobody will listen to what you have to say? Or is it you don't really want to share how you do what you do?

 

[darktone]

Well including this one I think you're proving my point.

You might be a brilliant trader but you've added zero value to this forum. Can you understand its possible for people to trade successfully without doing it exactly like you?

Here's another suggestion. You've been a member for well over a year and posted 1,450 posts. Yet you haven't started a single thread. Can you think nobody will listen to what you have to say? Or is it you don't really want to share how you do what you do?

He does share what he does tom, and when you have a little delve into things its definitely not brilliant

Seriously, for anyone who likes their life but cant help themselves but feed this troll, try the following

click 1

click 2

click 3

annnd enjoy

 

[barjon]

Well including this one I think you're proving my point.

You might be a brilliant trader but you've added zero value to this forum. Can you understand its possible for people to trade successfully without doing it exactly like you?

Here's another suggestion. You've been a member for well over a year and posted 1,450 posts. Yet you haven't started a single thread. Can you think nobody will listen to what you have to say? Or is it you don't really want to share how you do what you do?

Best not to engage with him. Just let him post into a vacuum.

 

[wisefoolx]

How long is a piece of string? The question itself is meaningless absent context.

If you tell me you have a 5 min scalping system based on 100 trades of the EURUSD over a two week period I would find it much more meaningful than if it was based on the South African Rand over the same period. Conversely if you have a breakout system based on the GBPUSD with 100 trades over a 10 year period it would not be of any use to me because it is not a system I can meaningfully use.

The bottom line is in your own comfort level based on your personal trading objectives as to the number needed to meet your confidence level. Trading is primarily self directed effort. Obviously 100 is better than 1 and so is 1000 better than 100. Most of our effort is getting to a zone that we can be successful. That zone is different for each trader. Trading is about "you" and not the "system". There is no silver bullet nor one size fits all.

The statistical sampling size needs to be even bigger once you start to factor in risk of ruin but that is a different subject.

At last, someone who has an undertsanding of the role numbers play in this game. A beer for you sir.

The more trades, the bigger the size, the longer the period ( at least constant trading over a year to me) , the greater the credibility.

Any troller can bet 0.90p now and then with no stoploss, and simply wait for the index to recover and someday a profit will come along. No reward to risk, no nothing, might as well go to the casino.

The same thing cannot be replicated with bigger sizes, try sitting out your 10ppp crashing 120 points with no stop, and don't forget your margin call of 1000's of pounds. I guarantee the feeling is a lot different to doing 0.90p.

 

[darktone]

At last, someone who has an undertsanding of the role numbers play in this game. A beer for you sir.

The more trades, the bigger the size, the longer the period ( at least constant trading over a year to me) , the greater the credibility.

Any troller can bet 0.90p now and then with no stoploss, and simply wait for the index to recover and someday a profit will come along. No reward to risk, no nothing, might as well go to the casino.

The same thing cannot be replicated with bigger sizes, try sitting out your 10ppp crashing 120 points with no stop, and don't forget your margin call of 1000's of pounds. I guarantee the feeling is a lot different to doing 0.90p.

All that matters outside of execution is risk vs account.

Two tarders trading 'dax', both are 4x account and have the same position and view, one is short 50 FDAX the other is short 50 x £1.00. Both dont use stops cos they know how to trade. The only thing different is the $ amount at risk. But that is viewed equally by the two players because they know how to trade, and know that its not about the 'money'.

 

[tomorton]

He does share what he does tom, and when you have a little delve into things its definitely not brilliant [/IMG]

I have to bow to your judgement on that one as I have seen some content on his own methods but was unsure what it meant. Maybe that's down to me. Then again, at one time in our lives, none of us could understand long division: I'm happy to learn more if poss.

Then again, maybe its not worth the effort?

 

[tomorton]

Best not to engage with him. Just let him post into a vacuum.

But an adversarial and condescending style tends to inhibit healthy discussions, disagreements, ideas and new threads that I could potentially benefit from. Makes T2W weaker, which does not make my trading stronger.

If someone comes on here claiming to have a brilliant approach to trading, I'd like it to be brought out into the light. Let's see if its brilliant or if its a brilliant illusion.