I have done well by using fundamentals in UK companies but Google, I have not been watching. I, probably, would not get the figures going back 5 years with GOOG, would I? My analysis deals a lot with earnings growth and debt.
Warren Buffet said that he never invested in dotcom companies because he did not understand them.
GrandSupercycle
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As mentioned Oct 15 on my blog - days before premature earnings sell off - GOOGLE daily / weekly / monthly charts are overextended & significant correction expected.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/156446-market-analysis.html
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/156446-market-analysis.html
I'm not professional in fundamentals. The only thing that I noticed from kind of fundamental prospective is that staring from the begging of October, the market ignores positive news/reports, when it possible it turns neutral and positive news/reports into negative and it does not missed negative ones. But I would not say that this observation is fundamental analysis, it is more connected to the TA as it deals with the market sentiment.
FA is quite a bit more than that. I am not an accountant, by any means, and most of my information I lifted from Sharescope. Even so, the best fundamental analysis is history and a company can hit the buffers at any time in the future. In the final analysis you have to estimate next years earnings and judge whether the price is cheap against those figures. I never bought any shares listed in Footsie because they are so highly capitalised that it was difficult for them to grow much more. I did not understand banks and mines so they were out. No debt more than 30% and good earnings over 5 years. This type of company is, often, a takeover target and, if that happens the price shoots up. As I said, GOOG is a US company and I have no idea of its value in FA but I bet that, being dotcom, it carried a lot of numbers that I would have rejected. IMO, that kind of company can only be traded by TA.
Agree that this can only be traded by TA. May have been premature but next significant level is around 660-665.
Hi, Vicorka, I saw your post chastising me for the extra zero, but can't find it. I'm very sorry about the mistake and hang my head in shame. I use TA, now, for the reasons that I gave earlier.
Personally, I made more by using FA and I did not watch my portfolio as much as I watch the screen, today but I live in hope.
Personally, I made more by using FA and I did not watch my portfolio as much as I watch the screen, today but I live in hope.
If FA brings you money, you should follow it. I'm not going to convince anyone to drop something that is already profitable.
From TA prospective I may only say tat big bearish volume on October 18-19 (most likely stop-losses eaten during the drop) will slow down the decline.
From TA prospective I may only say tat big bearish volume on October 18-19 (most likely stop-losses eaten during the drop) will slow down the decline.
Trader6868
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I only make an LIMIT BUY at 520 for GOOG...because I think that S&P 500 will plunge to 1300-1330
Bud
Bud
maybe you are right , but personally I'm out of short.
I made my % and I'm in cash. Current down-trend (if you are looking at SPX) is quite lazy and I do not trade numbers. In do not believe in them as I do not understand them and I do not trade on what I do not understand. I do not understand why SPX should bounce from 1300 and what the physics is behind it? Is it because it follows "magic" numbers?
Market is driven by supply/demand and it reverses its trend when there is a shift in supply/demand balance. I my TA I watch changes in the market behaviour, changes in sentiment. Volume and volatility show it. We had 10% decline on GOOG - we had huge volume spike during that crash as I explain as stop-losses of many traders. However, after that, volume went down and GOOG went side-way. This drop did not generate any panic - traders are not selling it. That means that there is no increase in bearish supply on GOOG. Most likely GOOG will continue to slide down as it is still bearish and market is still bearish. Yet it could be a "lazy" slide down.
I could be wrong but I will not wait for any specific number. I'll wait to see when the big Bulls (big Bulls trade in big volumes) start to come back and then I will consider buying.
Again I'm sorry, but I do not believe in just a number. In my TA I need to have everything explained to the levels of supply/demand balance. Otherwise it is more like a gambling for me...
Again, everybody trades the way he/she understands and if this way delivers profit it has has the right to exist and to follow.
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Trader6868
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If you use TA in your trading decision, Fibonacci golden ration and repetition cycle of price chart can help determine the bullish or bearish trend in intermediate- and long term (weekly or monthly chart). For very short term (daily chart), can use price & volume interaction, and momentum indicators (RSI...) and fibonacci, elliot wave and any other tools that you are familiar with to trade.
There are a lot of TA books from famous writers/traders but I assume that they only provide readers/traders with basic knowledge to invest/trade in the market. More important, they must learn from the stock market fluctuation and figure out the movement cycle because everyone needs to have a trading method in accordance with their personalities/hobbies....Then, choosing the buy point (long/short), take profit point, and specially CUTLOSS point
Bud
There are a lot of TA books from famous writers/traders but I assume that they only provide readers/traders with basic knowledge to invest/trade in the market. More important, they must learn from the stock market fluctuation and figure out the movement cycle because everyone needs to have a trading method in accordance with their personalities/hobbies....Then, choosing the buy point (long/short), take profit point, and specially CUTLOSS point
Bud
BBB. TA is an assessment based on your own take of what is going to happen. Fib lines, etc. etc. are lines based on statistics. Use them, or invent your own, it is all the same and your own assessment is just as likely to come off.
Yes, they are statistical numbers, however, initial they were not applied to the market and they based on assumptions of cyclical human behaviour. For me they are just numbers. I do not trade them, yet I check them. I check them not because I believe in them, but because many traders use them and it already makes them sensitive.
Google is over priced. I would not touch it with a barge pole.
I'm not into fundamentals and I cannot evaluate real cost of a company. I do not think there are companies on the market which would be traded at their real value. They are traded below if the traders dump them and they are traded above if traders pump them. Therefore, I cannot say whether GOOG is overprices or under-evaluated. For me GOOG was heavily pumped in July - Sep and it was overbought. Now, traders are simply selling it and I think they are selling not because it is overpriced but because they see that the market is in correction and they prefer to fix a profit while they still can do it with hope to buy later at lower price.
That's part of the point.
I find it difficult to calculate "value" companies. There is a lot of goodwill involved. Banks and mines are very difficult and, besides, the profits, as a percentage of their capital is usually lower. However, "growth" companies" can be assessed more easily and I liked well known consumer trade names.
Without checking GOOG I would say that all the punters would be into a company as well known as that and would dump it just as quickly. Definitely, a TA one.
Trader6868
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As I said before, GOOG is going down...and I am waiting for the target (520)...Now, I am short selling AAPL, KO, DIS, IBM, XOM..
