trendie
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http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/MoonPhase.html
are we all waiting to go long next Wednesday then ?
are we all waiting to go long next Wednesday then ?
Right, I've done the backtesting on this back to 01/01/1990 on the Dow.
Overall there have been 197 full moons over this time.
If the proposed 'moon river method' had been followed 118 trades (59.89%) would have been positive, with an overall point gain of 14,623.
Of the 197 trades 107 would have been long and 64.49% of these had a positive outcome, of the 90 shorts 54.44% had a positive outcome.
As a test I also ran a program of buying on the open of a full moon and selling on the close 10-days later, this resulted in only a 393.5 points gain and with 56.12% of trades being positive. And, buying on full moon and selling 5-days later resulted in a gain of 1591pts with 54.59% of trades being positive.
Hope that helps people ahead of next Wednesday . . . . . . . .
Overall there have been 197 full moons over this time.
If the proposed 'moon river method' had been followed 118 trades (59.89%) would have been positive, with an overall point gain of 14,623.
Of the 197 trades 107 would have been long and 64.49% of these had a positive outcome, of the 90 shorts 54.44% had a positive outcome.
As a test I also ran a program of buying on the open of a full moon and selling on the close 10-days later, this resulted in only a 393.5 points gain and with 56.12% of trades being positive. And, buying on full moon and selling 5-days later resulted in a gain of 1591pts with 54.59% of trades being positive.
Hope that helps people ahead of next Wednesday . . . . . . . .
trendie
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excellent work, apples10.
if the full moon happened over the weekend, which day did you take as your long or short trigger ?
( the day past, Friday, or the day to come, Monday )
EDIT: I will attempt to replicate your results over the weekend for myself, but looks good.
There truly appears to a tide in the affairs of man, which, if taken at the flood, lead onto great fortune.
if the full moon happened over the weekend, which day did you take as your long or short trigger ?
( the day past, Friday, or the day to come, Monday )
EDIT: I will attempt to replicate your results over the weekend for myself, but looks good.
There truly appears to a tide in the affairs of man, which, if taken at the flood, lead onto great fortune.
Last edited:
apples10 said:
Moon River method 14,623 since 1990, thanks for the test. Now try this, Start with a £1000 bank trade with a S/B Firm. Start worth £1,00 a point, every time you get a loosing trade add a pound, so the next trade would be £2,00 a point, you would stay with the same stake till you get another loss. You would then trade 3 pound a point.Basically you add another £1,00 after a loss. See if you can back test this.You be pleasantly surprised
badtrader said:
Unfortunately I didn't do the work chronologically (I used excel, my vba programme brought all the buys into one column and the sells into another, but not dated) so couldn't do this without spending some time in vba, unfortunately, I havn't got the time - but take your word for it as from memory, there was only one period of continious losses and this was in the early 1990's.
rgds
trendie
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just to complicate things.......
If the Dow closes high, then go LONG. Thats fine.
If the Dow closes low, the go SHORT.
But...
next week is Thanksgiving, and the market historically rises from Thanksgiving into the first week of the New Year. And you are supposed to BUY on Thanksgiving.
if the moon signal is to short, would it not conflict with this other view ?
EDIT: doesnt the Thanksgiving ( or is it Labor Day ) signal make up 40% of the Dows yearly gains ?
And the moon signal may conflict with that ?
Which carries the greater weight ?
If the Dow closes high, then go LONG. Thats fine.
If the Dow closes low, the go SHORT.
But...
next week is Thanksgiving, and the market historically rises from Thanksgiving into the first week of the New Year. And you are supposed to BUY on Thanksgiving.
if the moon signal is to short, would it not conflict with this other view ?
EDIT: doesnt the Thanksgiving ( or is it Labor Day ) signal make up 40% of the Dows yearly gains ?
And the moon signal may conflict with that ?
Which carries the greater weight ?
rols
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Moonstruck?
While my ephemeris indicates that at our geographical location both yesterday (15th) and today (16th) have a lunar phase of approximately 99% I can't determine precisely enough with my limited facilities which one is 'fuller'. Maybe some astro type on the boards can assist?
*
The US have yesterday as the full moon.
*
http://www.new-age.co.uk/moon-dates.htm
*
The UK has today as the full moon.
*
http://www.almanac.com/astronomy/moondays.php
*
Do we use the US's full moon for the DOW for yesterday, in which case it closed 14 pts down and will we use today's FTSE close for our full moon?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Who knows if the moon's
a balloon, coming out of a keen city
in the sky — filled with pretty people?
(and if you and i should
get into it, if they
should take me and take you into their balloon,
why then
we'd go up higher with all the pretty people
than houses and steeples and clouds:
go sailing
away and away sailing into a keen
city which nobody's ever visited, where
always
it's
Spring) and everyone's
in love and flowers pick themselves
e.e.cummings
*
While my ephemeris indicates that at our geographical location both yesterday (15th) and today (16th) have a lunar phase of approximately 99% I can't determine precisely enough with my limited facilities which one is 'fuller'. Maybe some astro type on the boards can assist?
*
The US have yesterday as the full moon.
*
http://www.new-age.co.uk/moon-dates.htm
*
The UK has today as the full moon.
*
http://www.almanac.com/astronomy/moondays.php
*
Do we use the US's full moon for the DOW for yesterday, in which case it closed 14 pts down and will we use today's FTSE close for our full moon?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Who knows if the moon's
a balloon, coming out of a keen city
in the sky — filled with pretty people?
(and if you and i should
get into it, if they
should take me and take you into their balloon,
why then
we'd go up higher with all the pretty people
than houses and steeples and clouds:
go sailing
away and away sailing into a keen
city which nobody's ever visited, where
always
it's
Spring) and everyone's
in love and flowers pick themselves
e.e.cummings
*
Bigbusiness
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rols said:
As GMT is five hours ahead of EST, shouldn't we have the full moon earlier this side of the pond?
rols
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Is the moon on a plate really the Dish of the Day?
I was quite taken with the idea of the Moon River Method. Sadly, as with so many other things in life such as timeshares and the girl in the office with the tight skirt, once you start to think about them the reality may soon tarnish the glister.
Is all this rush to worship at the feet of Artemis, a futile flight of fancy? Another foolish excursion into the cul-de-sac of Trade2Win's Easy Street?
Richard Dawkins in a recent book, 'Unweaving the Rainbow' dismisses astrology as mumbo-jumbo. He argues that the effect of a micro-wave on a human being is many million times greater than any celestial body. I am inclined to concur though this type of fuzzy logic doesn't provide any real answer.
I find the following may be worthy of discussion;
" Only about 4% of the total mass in the universe (as inferred from gravitational effects) can be seen directly. About 23% is thought to be composed of dark matter. The remaining 73% is thought to consist of dark energy, an even stranger component, distributed diffusely in space, that probably cannot be thought of as ordinary particles. Determining the nature of this missing mass is one of the most important problems in modern cosmology."
Answers by the end of the month, please.
I was quite taken with the idea of the Moon River Method. Sadly, as with so many other things in life such as timeshares and the girl in the office with the tight skirt, once you start to think about them the reality may soon tarnish the glister.
Is all this rush to worship at the feet of Artemis, a futile flight of fancy? Another foolish excursion into the cul-de-sac of Trade2Win's Easy Street?
Richard Dawkins in a recent book, 'Unweaving the Rainbow' dismisses astrology as mumbo-jumbo. He argues that the effect of a micro-wave on a human being is many million times greater than any celestial body. I am inclined to concur though this type of fuzzy logic doesn't provide any real answer.
I find the following may be worthy of discussion;
" Only about 4% of the total mass in the universe (as inferred from gravitational effects) can be seen directly. About 23% is thought to be composed of dark matter. The remaining 73% is thought to consist of dark energy, an even stranger component, distributed diffusely in space, that probably cannot be thought of as ordinary particles. Determining the nature of this missing mass is one of the most important problems in modern cosmology."
Answers by the end of the month, please.
Whale Song
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Hello, is there any software for this system?
trendie
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rols,
I agree with your sentiments.
However; astrology only works when people make it work.
If you receive a single letter every single day, but someone tells you ( via Tarot cards ) that you will receive a letter on Monday, you will give that letter a focus that it may not already possess, even though you get letters every day.
If the same Tarot cards said you should make a move on "that girl in the office with the tight skirt", then there is some psychological process which allows us to skew our thinking, into thinking its a good idea.
Astrology is interesting. Not by observing the stars, but by observing the people who observe the stars.
In times gone by, people believed that comets foretold dangerous times ahead.
If you were a neurotic leader, you may be lead to believe your enemies would attack you.
You may decide to attack first, thus fulfilling the prophecy.
Nonetheless, if the number-crunching tells you there is something, dont ignore the numbers !!
( all in good fun )
I agree with your sentiments.
However; astrology only works when people make it work.
If you receive a single letter every single day, but someone tells you ( via Tarot cards ) that you will receive a letter on Monday, you will give that letter a focus that it may not already possess, even though you get letters every day.
If the same Tarot cards said you should make a move on "that girl in the office with the tight skirt", then there is some psychological process which allows us to skew our thinking, into thinking its a good idea.
Astrology is interesting. Not by observing the stars, but by observing the people who observe the stars.
In times gone by, people believed that comets foretold dangerous times ahead.
If you were a neurotic leader, you may be lead to believe your enemies would attack you.
You may decide to attack first, thus fulfilling the prophecy.
Nonetheless, if the number-crunching tells you there is something, dont ignore the numbers !!
( all in good fun )
Rols - you are right to question whether the stars / planets can affect us. All I can say is that I have seen enough evidence to suggest that the planets do affect us, especially in relation to the markets.
The problem is getting the evidence. It is a difficult subject to study, and I have not, as yet. But I have seen the work of others who use it in their trading and I personally find the evidence compelling.
There are two well known moon-based systems that many people have heard about. These are Chris Carolan's Spiral Calendar and Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon. When stuff like this gets discussed, it is usually by people who have not studied it and are therefore dismissive of it. You cannot understand whether it works without putting in the effort to understand it. I have read this material and seen enough to convince me that it is worth me putting in the effort to properly study it. It is only after I have done that that I would be able to apply it to trading.
As for all the scientists who dismiss astrology - what do they know? I know that is a facetious thing for me to say, but generally speaking scientists are excellent at devising ways of killing people but on the big stuff they are a bit vague. For instance, they have no idea where oil comes from, they try to tell us that the universe started with a big explosion, they cannot explain what gravity is, they pretend there are lots of dimensions when it is obvious how many there are, etc. etc. etc.
See what I mean? So to conclude, I am suggesting that scientists can be expected to dismiss astrology and that if you really want to know if it works, the only thing you can do is study it yourself. And don't bother doing that unless you are serious about it, because it will be a lot of hard work.
Just my take on things
The problem is getting the evidence. It is a difficult subject to study, and I have not, as yet. But I have seen the work of others who use it in their trading and I personally find the evidence compelling.
There are two well known moon-based systems that many people have heard about. These are Chris Carolan's Spiral Calendar and Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon. When stuff like this gets discussed, it is usually by people who have not studied it and are therefore dismissive of it. You cannot understand whether it works without putting in the effort to understand it. I have read this material and seen enough to convince me that it is worth me putting in the effort to properly study it. It is only after I have done that that I would be able to apply it to trading.
As for all the scientists who dismiss astrology - what do they know? I know that is a facetious thing for me to say, but generally speaking scientists are excellent at devising ways of killing people but on the big stuff they are a bit vague. For instance, they have no idea where oil comes from, they try to tell us that the universe started with a big explosion, they cannot explain what gravity is, they pretend there are lots of dimensions when it is obvious how many there are, etc. etc. etc.
See what I mean? So to conclude, I am suggesting that scientists can be expected to dismiss astrology and that if you really want to know if it works, the only thing you can do is study it yourself. And don't bother doing that unless you are serious about it, because it will be a lot of hard work.
Just my take on things
swandro said:
Wilder's Delta Phenomenon doesn't really have anything to do with the position of the moon. It just states that markets repeat at defined intervals, one of which is the lunar cycle of appx 28 days. If you were solving the Delta solution it wouldn't really matter where you started, just that the reference points you used are located the lunar cycle apart.
G-Man
