Buy Google

Vicorka

Active member
Yes the GOOG is a good company. Yet, 40% in 3 month does not fit the natural company's growth and there is the possibility at this point this stock is over evaluated.

2012_10_04_goog.png


The most recent volume surge may indicate that some big players decided to dump their shares at this high price to greedy buyers. It could be the first sign that pressure of buyers could be exhausted.

While my indicators (Selling/Buying Volume Flow, Volatility adjusted MACD and True Strength Index) remain positive, I would be cautious from this point for the possibility of reversal down.

Again the GOOG is a good company, but every stock trend has corrections.
 

ronblack

Active member
Again the GOOG is a good company, but every stock trend has corrections.

This is what some people said about AAPL at $200. They still say that at $600+

The point is to catch the trend before the correction, not to argue about the correction to come. :)
 

Vicorka

Active member
This is what some people said about AAPL at $200. They still say that at $600+

The point is to catch the trend before the correction, not to argue about the correction to come. :)

My point is that now is the time to look at the possibility of having the correction. I do not know when GOOG will be in a year. Maybe it will make another 50% up. But not now, after such big volume surge to the price up-side. I will not be buying it.

Big volume surge means bigger than usual number of shares changed hands. Price goes up because there are bigger number of bullish traders who is willing to pay higher price. Big volume surge to the price up-side means that big number of bearish traders entered and started to satisfy demands of bullish traders. After such big volume there are not going to be as much bluish traders as before (they already bought and their demand is satisfied). As a rule after such volume we have shift in supply/demand balance with further reversal.

I'm not stating GOOG has to crash and I'm not asking you to get rid of your GOOG shares. I have my analysis and you have yours and my analysis tells me not to buy it now.
 

james1989

Well-known member
The big techs, QCOM, GOOG, ORCL are undervalued compared to the greater market for no good reason, I would prefer to buy lower, but for a longer holding period they are reasonable.

Ron Black, buying those corrections makes much difference over time.
 

Vicorka

Active member
I'm not sure about QCOM and ORCL, but make a statement that GOOG is "undervalued for no good reason" after it made strong run in the past 3 months...

What about "It was pumped to be dumped" over the past 3 months...
 

james1989

Well-known member
I'm not sure about QCOM and ORCL, but make a statement that GOOG is "undervalued for no good reason" after it made strong run in the past 3 months...

What about "It was pumped to be dumped" over the past 3 months...

It is undervalued compared to the rest of the market, that is, quality consistent companies posting strong free cash flows on the back of stable operations. I value the business, not the chart.

Don't get me wrong though, I wouldn't buy until it hit $600.
 

Vicorka

Active member
It is undervalued compared to the rest of the market.

No doubt that GOOG is a good company. No doubt that even hypothetically stock market crash tomorrow, this company will survive and may move higher in the long run. However, there is a limited number of stock that are traded above $500 and have decent trading volume:

Symbol, Close, Volume
AAPL 641.75 9959600
GOOG 742.25 1151100
PCLN 609.09 463100

Another 2 are traded above $400
ISRG 494.00 195600
MA 462.68 232100

Anther 5 are traded above $200
AZO 378.21 202000
CMG 286.65 309100
AMZN 248.43 1634200
CF 215.05 393900
IBM 206.84 1646000

The rest of the stocks are traded below...

So, no doubt that the Google is a good company if you compare it to the rest stocks. But it does not mean this stock is undervalued.

If you are doing fundamental analysis and making a statement that GOOG is undervalued, the logical question would be what is actual real GOOG stock value (not the market value)?

P.S. Do not get me wrong, I respect those who is in fundamentals. On my opinion it is much harder then charts analysis.
 
Last edited:

SavantK

Junior member
You have a good point, i would definitely agree with you..


Yes the GOOG is a good company. Yet, 40% in 3 month does not fit the natural company's growth and there is the possibility at this point this stock is over evaluated.

Again the GOOG is a good company, but every stock trend has corrections.
 

Vicorka

Active member
2011_10_12_goog.png


Couple percent down is not big deal. Earning reports are coming. The bad news is that over the past two weeks the market does not show a lot of enthusiasm on the positive news. Check how the market (S&P 500) reacted on employment and initial claims positive reports - it was up at the market open and then down by the end of the trading session. The possibility is that even we see good earning reports for GOOG, they may not meet the exceptions of "mysterious traders" as later could be announced by CNN.
 
 
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