Black Dog trading system, a dog with fleas..?

[Black Swan]

That GBPUSD short is still looking nice by the way!:cheesy: In my earlier post I could have mentioned any one of about ten to twelve pairs which were all showing BD set ups but I choose to mention GBPUSD because it was that particular set up which looked by far the best imho. That's not luck, that's skill!


Steve.

Wow..just wow, I thought you were a lot further on in your trader development and evolution than this, are you a part time, time poor guy with a profession?

Steve, 90-95% of trades I take go into profit at some stage, when price is moving, as cable and gbp/jpy did for me from midnight - yesterday morning, any strat will pick it up. The skill is not in the dubious predictive nature of the FX market, we accept we have no idea what price will do next, but make decisions based on probabilities; xyz happens then price will probably move in my favour.

 

[stevespray]

Wow..just wow, I thought you were a lot further on in your trader development and evolution than this, are you a part time, time poor guy with a profession?

Steve, 90-95% of trades I take go into profit at some stage, when price is moving, as cable and gbp/jpy did for me from midnight - yesterday morning, any strat will pick it up. The skill is not in the dubious predictive nature of the FX market, we accept we have no idea what price will do next, but make decisions based on probabilities; xyz happens then price will probably move in my favour.

...To be honest I'm even further ahead (development wise) than you appear to be. Yes, your point is valid, we're not 'predicting' what price will do next, instead we're entering at or near places where we will find out quickly (both in price and / or time) if our trade is a good one.

Saying that 90% to 95% of your trades go into profit at some stage is a statistic which has little or no meaning. Exit strategy is key here. Most newbies fail because their exit strategy is flawed - they allow many of their trades, both winners and lossers, to be exited via a stop order... in other words they exit most trades when price is moving against them. By doing this they miss the chance to exit in a value area. Far better to have a strategy where exits are made as price moves in your favour. For example, if you have a trade which moves 20 pips against you might want to think about an exit if it spikes 15 pips back in your favour, even if your initial stop loss was say 35 pips - in my book a move 20 pips against you is a warning that the entry was not a good one.

Re-read my comments re GBPUSD from yesterday. You mention 'probability' but then fail to take onboard the meaning of my comments. Certain price action will lead to higher probability trades. My point was that there were a good few pairs with perfectly valid set ups. Some people (less experienced) would take multipul set ups maybe trading six or seven pairs. I look at it differently. In my opinion it's better to take less positions but with larger stakes. My results bare out the theory as do my stress levels.

Steve.

 

[Black Swan]

So you're part time, that explains your grail hunt over the years...

 

[Black Swan]

Make another 200 calls with exact entries, stops and targets and I might possibly agree.

Even my random robot was short this morning (the dumb one, not the clever one) so what the does that actually prove ?

he's kidding you, he's actually savant..

 

[the hare]

he's kidding you, he's actually savant..

No he' really is completely dumb ! The general idea is that I use him as a benchmark to compare later evolutions of my random robots against.

 

[neil]

No he' really is completely dumb ! The general idea is that I use him as a benchmark to compare later evolutions of my random robots against.

Are we discussing the evolution of UNREAL

 

[stevespray]

So you're part time, that explains your grail hunt over the years...

Nope, sorry, wrong again, your psychoanalysis skill are failing you again!

I run a business which I dedicate as much or as little time to as I wish. Absolutely no pressures of work here.

And, to be honest, I've not been on the grail hunt which you mention either. I can understand you writing that though, you connect anyone who buys any kind of system (from a 'vendor') to 'grail hunting', it's kind of the building blocks which you use in your mindset to try and get 'one up' on the person you're discussing something with. Again, if you actually examined Black Dog then you'd see that it wasn't a holy grail. That's actaully what made it so appealing to me in the first place.

Steve.

 

[Black Swan]

Nope, sorry, wrong again, your psychoanalysis skill are failing you again!

I run a business which I dedicate as much or as little time to as I wish. Absolutely no pressures of work here.

And, to be honest, I've not been on the grail hunt which you mention either. I can understand you writing that though, you connect anyone who buys any kind of system (from a 'vendor') to 'grail hunting', it's kind of the building blocks which you use in your mindset to try and get 'one up' on the person you're discussing something with. Again, if you actually examined Black Dog then you'd see that it wasn't a holy grail. That's actaully what made it so appealing to me in the first place.

Steve.

Yeah sure..good luck with all of that Steve..

 

[Jason101]

Niceness

Steve: 8

Black Swan -0

Dry humour

Steve: 0

Black Swan: 8

 

[tommygsxruk]

LMAO

Being an **** to Everyone to make themselves feel better

Black Swan: 11

 

[Jason101]

Tom,

I am actually beginning to like Black Swan, not quite sure why though?

He did be-little my account size on another thread and then finish the put down with a winking smiley.

It is hard to dislike someone who puts you down and winks at you at the same time!

Jay

 

[tommygsxruk]

BS.... Can you put on your best cuban voice and say...

"You need people like me. You need people like me so you can point your fckin fingers and say, "That's the bad guy."

 

[forker]

Who came up with the name black dog trading system. Sounds like a lock stock type system that steals from your mamma

 

[Black Swan]

Who came up with the name black dog trading system. Sounds like a lock stock type system that steals from your mamma

 

[bunda]

You really REALLY need to get an effin life Black Swan. I can imagine that in real life you are the obnoxious person you are on here. Reading between the lines I can see that you are NOT a trader in the true sense but probably, and highly likely, one of the many truly great demo traders that often form opinions on something they know absolutely nothing about. I find you sadly humourous (in that feel-sorry-for-you way).

It's a shame that I have been driven from this forum by people who have nothing better to do than rant and rave before actually doing something to arrive at their 'facts'.

I read this thread first because I am a BD member - the verbal garbage coming from BSwan and its ilk is enough to warrant no further participation, (the number of BSwan's posts suggests he writes over many topics on this forum, do I want to go there?).

SteveS and Tommy - see you in the money.

 

[Jason101]

You really REALLY need to get an effin life Black Swan. I can imagine that in real life you are the obnoxious person you are on here. Reading between the lines I can see that you are NOT a trader in the true sense but probably, and highly likely, one of the many truly great demo traders that often form opinions on something they know absolutely nothing about. I find you sadly humourous (in that feel-sorry-for-you way).

It's a shame that I have been driven from this forum by people who have nothing better to do than rant and rave before actually doing something to arrive at their 'facts'.

I read this thread first because I am a BD member - the verbal garbage coming from BSwan and its ilk is enough to warrant no further participation, (the number of BSwan's posts suggests he writes over many topics on this forum, do I want to go there?).

SteveS and Tommy - see you in the money.

Hi Bunda

If you do want to stay for other reasons/threads, you can always make use of the ignore tab, just click on the poster name, then the ignore tab and you will never see any of their posts again, this works for whole threads and forum sub sections too.

It filters out LOADS of rubbish on here.

 

[Black Swan]

SteveS and Tommy - see you in the money.

No you won't, you're a part time, scared, pocket money, clueless dreamer, traders don't need crutches, that's were the debate stops, you haven't/didn't do any research on the dog with fleas have you? You just bought it on a whim..prick..Now go back to skulking in the shadows, and paying for 2 MAs and a MACD strat..

When it all goes tits up be brave enough to come back and admit you're wrong and a snidey little 5hithouse eh? And what's all this "I've been driven away from the forum", after 3 posts in 3 months? LOL Like who gives a 5hit

 

[Black Swan]

You system hunters/holy grail hunters really have no idea what you're looking for. Like drunks you stagger from bar to bar looking for the next cheap hit as you sink deeper and deeper. What you fail to realise is that every Eureka, curved fit system, will work..for a while..heh, every dog will have it's day, given the randomness of the market it's a nailed on certainty.

Systems come and go and this black dog with fleas is no different to the TEC system vilified by new naive grail hunting traders in as much as the black dog guys failed, tinkered, failed tinkered, failed tinkered..It is a indicator based mechanical strat. with no discretion which ( like all) is subject to huge drawdowns at which point most new traders will puke, bail and blame the author demanding their money back..

Your chance of having a 30%+ drawdown is still probably circa 50/50 with this system, as it is with most out of the box systems. That'll kill the newbies confidence stone dead. It has experienced a 50% drawdown in the past..Now those 2 issues, added to the fact that one of the systems within the black doo doo (oh yes, as per usual with snake oil you can choose 3 or 4 trading methods with it now) means it is in fact no better than a 50/50 crap shoot with bells on it. This crap shoot reality is re-inforced by the fact that one of the suggested choices is 1:1 RR, risk 20 pips to gain 20 pips principally on a ridiculously adjusted MACD entry off a 15 min time-frame, do you really need a 'system' for that? Dress it up how you like but that is simply a coin toss and there's nothing wrong with that if your MM and psyche is up for it..

The MACD was invented by Gerald Appel in the 1970's. Thomas Aspray adds the histogram to the MACD in 1986 in order to anticipate MACD crossovers, and here you have the black dog guys who tinker with the standard settings to give you their proprietary technique, it'd be like buying a brand new Mercedes and taking it to kwit fit for a different exhaust system on the first day.

You may as well have HA alone on your chart and have a look and a good think as at where you think price will go next as use these $99 a month systems...or "$49 if you sign up for 6 months now, yes siree..!!"

bump

 

[the hare]

All this is very amusing. The majority are always wrong. The majority will always find the comments of the minority, insulting, or uncomfortable.

T2W (who's stared objective is to help traders) unbelievably provides an ignore feature, ensuring that the majority who use it, remain in blisful ignorance. Its LULZ of the highest quality.

 

[Black Swan]

All this is very amusing. The majority are always wrong. The majority will always find the comments of the minority, insulting, or uncomfortable.

T2W (who's stared objective is to help traders) unbelievably provides an ignore feature, ensuring that the majority who use it, remain in blisful ignorance. Its LULZ of the highest quality.

A few things;

Can totally understand wanting/having a mentor on the basis that it's incredibly hard to get good at this from a standing start, very few of us can do it.

Can totally understand wanting/having a membership for a trading room where you also get a form of mentorship such as Phil Newton.

But cannot possibly understand how folk defend their choice of 'out of the box/off the shelf' systems. It is one of the most bizarre notions sold in this industry, it's beyond insanity, they are all (to a man) snake oil salesman, they know they're selling bu115hit with their adjusted indicators.

And it always follows the same pathology; part timers, with a couple of hundred quid buy it, then love it, until it *breaks*, then they wail like kids not getting toys in Tesco. And what have they learned whilst playing with the out of box strat? Nothing, so they're back to point zero, in fact worse because they've had their confidence battered...