splashy
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some Big Ben numbers since feb for anyone who's interested....
some Big Ben numbers since feb for anyone who's interested....
You asked to be kept in the loop Tomorton, and after backtesting many criteria over the past six months I have decided that EURUSD is not a viable candidate for BB trading. No point in going back further. I'll be trying some other pairs in due course.
Regarding GBPUSD, further to my previous postings I must mention that when trading this pair I move my stop to break even if the price moves 20 to 25 pips in my direction. The exact figure is subject to a lot of re-working of my previous figures, which is my next project.
I didn't mention this previously because it is not part of your "set & forget" philosophy, but for those, like me, who can check their account occasionally (I set an audio alert) during the morning, it could save a lot of losing trades. And lose a few winning ones no doubt. It saved me a certain loser today, but I will report back later if anybody's interested...
Yes 30 pips was on GBPUSD, glad to see you got that. I broke even, see above, my target being 35. (Rules are rules!).
Thanks splashy, unfortunately my version of exel (pretty old, 2003 I think) doesn't like this
Hi pb - Actually, I haven't even been watching currency still going 1005 to the FTSE100, I never dreamed I would be forced to suspend trading it due to market irregularities so I never kept up study of the forex charts. Today was just a suck it and see guess at +/-2 pips for entry, -/+30 pips for target and stop.
I think I should pay more attention from here on and devlop a systematic approach. Or maybe just follow Gelly and splashy. Keep it up chaps.
splashy
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Thanks splashy, unfortunately my version of exel (pretty old, 2003 I think) doesn't like this
Actually, i think its my fault for saving incorrectly, i didn't delete the original file format when i saved so it saved as .xls.xls or something - confused computors a bit.
Anyway, try this. Interestingly, it contradicts your research a little - just goes to show how close you can be to a winning system and yet so far...
It woiuld also be interesting to see what happens going down the line with eurusd - maybe my results are fickle or freaky...
That looks better, you had an unusual file extension. When I have time I'm very interested in looking at those figures. Incidentally as you've seen I'm interested in lower risk strategies just at the moment - having been there & done that! Cheers.
Splashy,
Many thanks, very helpful. Is your data easily organised so that you can check which signal was with the "trend" and which was not during any given period.
For instance, the second signal seems to have had a positive result for everything except GBP-USD. Could it be that the second signal in GBP USD was against the trend (like a 100MA or a shorter 20 MA). If so, the trend would be an interesting filter, so that we would choose to take a signal (be it first or second) only if it was also consistent with the prevailing trend (long term preferable to short term MA, I would suspect).
If this is too cumbersome, then don't bother, it was just an idle thought when I saw your results and wondered why the second signal failed in the case of GBPUSD.
cheers,
mcclaine.
No BB tomorrow (NFP) or the 4th of July for me, so next trade's Tuesday. Hope July will be good (last year July BB gbpusd made 95 pips).
My BB trades this week:
FTSE nt nt +15 -11 Total +4
GBPUSD b/e -20 -21 nt Total -41
June total (from 17th):
FTSE -10
GBPUSD -11
Guess I shouldn't have traded yesterday with the Greek vote coming up - it cost me 21 pips with that 77pip whipsaw.
How's everybody else doing?
My BB trades this week:
FTSE nt nt +15 -11 Total +4
GBPUSD b/e -20 -21 nt Total -41
June total (from 17th):
FTSE -10
GBPUSD -11
Guess I shouldn't have traded yesterday with the Greek vote coming up - it cost me 21 pips with that 77pip whipsaw.
How's everybody else doing?
splashy
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Hi Mcclaine,
Yep, good points - you think like me lol.
While i was compiling, i also gathered data to tell me whether the breakout was concurrent with the daily DMI, to check for any trending patterns there. Also, i checked whether the breakout was with or against the direction of the time period i.e if the 8-10 period was net long, was the breakout long too, and therefore was it any more likely to reach target than if it went in the opposite direction.
I have to say that as yet, there doesn't seem to be any correlation on any of these points which did surprise me a little.
The second signals on gbpusd puzzle me too but there was a short spell in april where there were 5 successive reverse signals that went bad. The first signals at that time were dire too so its reasonable to assume that there was some nervousness re the pair at that time. Coupled with the relatively small number of gbpusd 2nd trades that there are in comparison with the other currencies, I would expect that the numbers would improve as time goes by.
I also wouldn't be surprised if some trending pattern did emerge at some point and then we're really in the money!
hope this helps
This week a more promising performance (from charts): 2-1. The 4-week chart performance is now improved to only barely negative at 6-7 for -1.
Maybe more dependable performance from the FTSE big players is returning, but I will keep on the sidelines until we are back to 11-9 on a rolling 20-trade basis, which will be next Thursday at least.
Income in the meantime coming from GBP/USD.
Maybe more dependable performance from the FTSE big players is returning, but I will keep on the sidelines until we are back to 11-9 on a rolling 20-trade basis, which will be next Thursday at least.
Income in the meantime coming from GBP/USD.
Welcome wakelingp - The no-trade rules are, like the fine details of BB, meant to be something you can finesse yourself. The principle is that the no-trade rules will keep you out on a day when the BB range is already great, say 80pts, in which case the probability of price travelling another 30 or 40 beyond the range must be slim. I currently stay out of the BBR is more than 1.25 x the av. BBR over the last 10 sessions. You could even use a fixed points figure, say a if BBR is >43.2pts, you will regard the day as a no-trade. Or say 0.95% of the current FTSE value. Previously I used the BBR compared with the ATR but I honestly don't think it matters much, as long as you're not trading on a long shot.
I started using the 1.25 x 10d av. BBR as a no-trade rule from 09/05. This has produced a performance of 14 wins and 15 losses for a score of -1, plus 1 expired negative (at 1pm). Ignoring this and all no-trade rules and taking a trade on every session would have produced 16-20 plus the expired negative .
MichaelPurcell
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You guys thinking 6000 is going to be a key level of resistance this week?
If it breaches (probably with the help of a bullish S&P500) back to the stubborn 6100 level... exciting week ahead!
If it breaches (probably with the help of a bullish S&P500) back to the stubborn 6100 level... exciting week ahead!
