splashy
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Am i correct in assuming you are still using the ftse 8-9am time period? The figures i have do show that it has been dire recently for the first signals but the reverse signals are still averaging over 3 pips per trade since feb and have made 75 pips in last 10 days. Why not just trade those until the charts pick up for you. Also, the ftse 8-10am time frame is doing ok after a duff May and the currencies on both time frames doing really well too. I think you just have a bum steer for these particular market conditions.
It would also seem to advocate hedging ftse with a currency. I've been trading just the reverse signals on ftse 8-10 and eurgbp 8-10 while i compile enough data to satisfy myself. Obviously, some days pass without trades but they seem quite consistent across all instruments on everything i've got data for so that gives me confidence and i'm happy with the results thus far.
Having said all that, the minute you change systems, you'll wish you hadn't - that's sods law...
Yes splashy, still trading off 8-9am. Time is the problem I have, otherwise I would add some currency pairs again to my FTSE trades and watch for the reverse plays, but it's just too busy at work. I have even thought of trying to run BBs on the Australian index as I obviously have time in the late evening - I will review the charts and see if it's an option.
Stopped out - I was expecting that based on other things on the chart I was looking at - I try to enter the Big Ben without looking at other things as thats the whole point of trading a system like this but today those other things really did suggest that entering long at 5764 wasn't a great idea.
Wow, what an ugly ugly chart this morning. Talk about a fake-out. Peaked just above BBH then collapsed but has since made a base, as if the pro's don't have the conviction to drive it lower.
I'll be be flat until at least mid next week, I think it will take at least that long to develop a positive score in a 20-trade sequence. I will put off re-entering until we show 11-9 but will be going in full size from the off.
This Greek sovereign debt mullarkey is very frustrating but I remind myself that if I can only trade on 60% of the business days of the year, and only 60% of these are winners, I will still be making good money.
I'll be be flat until at least mid next week, I think it will take at least that long to develop a positive score in a 20-trade sequence. I will put off re-entering until we show 11-9 but will be going in full size from the off.
This Greek sovereign debt mullarkey is very frustrating but I remind myself that if I can only trade on 60% of the business days of the year, and only 60% of these are winners, I will still be making good money.
splashy
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what are your criteria, gelly, for ftse and the currencies. and what timescales? Do you have a predetermined limit/stop regardless of pattern?
We may probably looking at similar things although i'm not a great fan of predetermined targets and not using them here....
ftse 8-9 since last friday +28 -8 +31 -44 +26 = +33
ftse 8-10 since last friday +28 +18 +31 -50 +26 =+53
These are with slippage of 3 and taking reverse signals too...
re the currencies this week, its looks to be a barnstormer so far...check this out
gbpusd 8-9 since last friday +34 +38 +22 +46 +47 = +188
gbpusd 8-10 since last friday +34 +44 -77 +62 +60 = +123
slippage of 4 and again taking reverse signals too.
I would suggest not getting carried away by the success of the currencies this week. It has been exceptional so far and bad weeks can be very painful too.
I'm looking forward to your results...
Thanks for that splashy. All the details you want are on my post number 1304 page 163 of this thread.
Your results are great, but I'm not prepared to use such big SL at the moment.
Added: re ftse I'm using same as tomorton at the moment.
Your results are great, but I'm not prepared to use such big SL at the moment.
Added: re ftse I'm using same as tomorton at the moment.
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Hi Splashy - What's the reasoning behind hedging the FTSE big ben with a currency Big Ben. Is it simply that diversification spreads risk or are you seeing some correlation between the results between the FTSE and the currency pairs you are trading?
FTSE performance recently = dire.
This week = 1-3, plus 1 trade expired negative.
Last 20 trades = 8-12.
Last 4 weeks = 5-9.
23 May was the clear start of the rot, following a 5-0 week.
Waiting for a positive performance of 11-9 over 20 trades is going to keep me out all next week, even if we have 5 winners in a row.
This week = 1-3, plus 1 trade expired negative.
Last 20 trades = 8-12.
Last 4 weeks = 5-9.
23 May was the clear start of the rot, following a 5-0 week.
Waiting for a positive performance of 11-9 over 20 trades is going to keep me out all next week, even if we have 5 winners in a row.
brewski1984
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Does staying out not go against the other topic you started? If you wait for a positive outcome before you start trading again then you've missed all the winners that take you back into positive.
That's true brew, but on the other hand, if I was a new BB trader, why would I jump into a system that shows a record of 40 or 45% win rate and 1:1 r:r over the last 20 trades? More likely I would wait a week or two for a positive track record. Admittedly, past record does not guarantee future performance, but can I really fight all the pros in the whole European market?
MajorDutch
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sorry to sound negative but there is no genuine edge in this system, you might as well pay your money to charity.
The system has an edge - over 45 weeks it's about 61%, not as good as it has been but what system can be traded in every foreseeable market environment? In addition, this system wasn't invented for the sake of my trades and this thread, it's just another application of a legitimate, successful and well known variant of the group of trades known as opening range breakouts. And if you think ORBOs cannot be traded profitably, you will probably find yourself in a group of one.
splashy
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Its a weird one - they are not hedges for each other (quite often their charts are very similar) but sometimes the currency pair will spiral somewhere leaving ftse flat and its nice to catch that move which would be missed by trading ftse alone.
So i guess its for an element of diversification although there is also some obvious correlation too. Having said that, the most attractive reason for trading either is that they are both reasonably low risk and both seem to pay well enough.
I'll put some numbers up later so anyone who wants to can take a look and judge for themselves.
Got a nice win on GBP/USD today as unwilling to risk trading the FTSE in negative performance. Unexpected long position triggered and hit my top of the head pips target of 30. Good Monday. I will continue to trade Cable or EUR/USD while I have marked the FTSE off-limits for me.
